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SILVER1! trade ideas

Bobby's homework assignment Silver9.6.23 This is a review of the silver trade that started yesterday. I drew a new chart today because that's how I do my analysis after the trade. I think this is a very important video for Bobby and will set him up for things that I'm going to show him as we move forward. And I know that MonyBags we'll take a look...although she's a very good Trader..but this might give her some ideas. I consider myself an old dog at this... and yet some of this is being modified... and that's okay as long as you trade with caution and you constantly review your trade decisions.... and get rid of the ones that cost you more money that is unacceptable for you. My advice to most people: Don't plan on a system that you think will give you money everyday. Look for a system that is very easy for you to handle and it will give you good rewards with minimal Stops and has nice returns...So you can have a peaceful existence with the market.
COMEX:SI1!
by ScottBogatin
Silver has battled this trendling for 13 Years!August is officially in the books, and other than Platinum rising $100 from $885 to $985, there was little to get excited about. Precious Metals were flat, where hot economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve supported the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields, further pressuring prices. As the month went on, softer prints from Consumer Confidence, ADP, GDP, and Jolts data cast doubts on the Fed's ability to maintain its hawkish stance. The September FOMC meeting now sits at a 93% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. Chinese Stimulus China made another attempt to support its economy overnight by cutting the reserve requirements on foreign currencies. The immediate reaction was a breakout in Copper prices and a retest of the 200-day moving average. Still, as the day session progressed, better-than-expected employment data left traders uneasy ahead of the long weekend, booking gains in Copper and reducing exposure in Precious Metals. Silver is stuck in a Trading Range Silver futures started the week on a firmer note but fell back as the week progressed and look susceptible to a more extensive correction next week. In the last article, I indicated that breakout traders will use a close above $24.75 to establish new long positions. However, the lack of upside momentum makes me question the strength of this "bull market." Those long Silver will want to use $23.79 as their stop-out point or short-dated put options such as the "week two, $24.50 puts" for protection. Remember, prices remain trapped between $23-22 on the downside and $26-25 on the upside and lack a real catalyst to trade any higher. For those of you who are "perma bulls" on Silver, it would be wise to wait for a correction before adding to positions. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Silver on the verge of a breakout? The precious metals complex received a nice boost off the weaker than expected Jolts and consumer confidence on Tuesday, and we have ADP coming on Wednesday that is expected to come in at 195,000. We are expecting this number will be a strong catalyst for the market, and if we can see a number higher than expected, we could see the market take a big hit to the downside for the precious metals and specifically the silver market. On the technical side, silver carved out a nice bottom in the middle of august, and we are now trading out above a key pivot level of resistance of 24.70-24.77. Price action out above here keeps the bulls in control, and they need to defend that level which will now act as strong support moving forward. Looking at the chart, there is strong trendline resistance from the highs back in May of this year. If we can see a good ADP number, Silver could take out this trendline and look to take out the 25.28 level, and then the next level would be 25.80-25.82. We are getting close to overbought territory on this December contract for silver, and we typically see some selling pressure when the RSI gets near that 70 level, so there is great volatility to be expected this week with the strong technical points and the fundamental backdrop. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SIZ2023
by Ryan_Gorman
Two Levels to Watch in Silver It was an impressive week for commodities across the board, with everything from Precious Metals and Energies to Agricultural markets grabbing headlines. Inflation remains worrysome During the Pro-Farmer Crop tour, excessive heat across the Mid-West triggered volatility as farmers asked themselves, "How much heat can this crop handle?" You may ask yourself why metals traders care about crop conditions or energy prices. The answer is simple: food and energy comprise the two main components of inflation. As prices rise, inflation rises, and the Federal Reserve steps up its fight against inflation, leaving interest rates "higher for longer." That impacts the trajectory of Gold prices and is the main reason prices have failed to take out recent highs. On the other hand, Copper, Platinum, and Silver continue to monitor clues from China regarding additional stimulus measures that can potentially boost demand for the metals. Silver Exploded this week Silver futures rallied sharply this week, tacking 6.7% coming into Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. While we welcome the gains, it's hard not to pay attention to the seemingly rangebound trading affair we find ourselves in. Prices remain trapped between $22 on the downside and $26 on the upside. Breakout traders will use any close above $24.75 to establish new long positions, while a "breakdown" below $23.39 will spark additional liquidation and fresh "naked shorts" in the market. We will want to re-establish long positions on and correction below $23 while utilizing call options to play an upside explosion above $26. Remember, "every bull market starts with a short covering rally." www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Bobby's homework assignment 28.24.23 Since I ran out of time on the previous video I decided to come back and finish my discussion of the silver market. It's very easy for me to draw range boxes... but I don't think it's very easy to believe what I'm doing.... I would not believe it until I had more familiarity with it. so I decided I would show you the range box and how I might trade it and how I could actually trade what will be the beginning of the range..... and continue trading it as the market becomes more obviously a range. Most important pattern that changed Trading for me... Occurred when one day I opened up some charts and ask myself "What is the easiest pattern for me to see"? .....And what could I trade only looking at that pattern and nothing else. On that day it was a rage box.... I can't even remember what market it was... and I figured if it looks that easy I could get a couple trades.... maybe I could look each day for the possibility of a range on a different market.... that was okay because I really didn't want to trade a lot. I was looking for A nice return on a couple trades A month... and that would be fine. Not everything turned out that way.... but it was a blast and I got to refine A few matters along the way because I wanted to help a very dear friend that I had known for most of my life. The problem with silver Is that it is at A resistance but it has very strong Bullish price action. I would not fight the bullish price action... so I wouldn't take a short trade. I would wait.
COMEX:SI1!
by ScottBogatin
Silver - 33 Moons [And An Options Opportunity](Using 3-Day candles for visibility only. Consult weekly/daily yourself) I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion. Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped? I hadn't paid a lot of attention to Silver and was on the sidelines until it dumped 10 percent this week, and now I believe there is a crazy good opportunity. The problem with Gold is that the Chinese Communist Party bought a lot of it and they're going to get margin called or are the ones actually short selling. The problem with silver is that there's not a lot of it left and it's really needed for technology. When smart money wants to buy they accumulate at low prices and distribute at high prices. Often times what precedes the biggest moves are smaller moves that serve the purpose of wiping out and shaking out early short sellers and trapping retail traders who just love to buy high and sell low. There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the world right now, as you can tell from the weekend "Prigozhin Coup," which I cover the implications of for the US Dollar here. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia But the biggest geopolitical risk is what happens if Xi Jinping gets up one morning and dumps the CCP. Nobody believes this can happen and nobody is prepared for it. But when it happens, it will implicate the whole world for both Xi and China to survive, they will have to weaponize the persecution of the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong committed by the Jiang Zemin faction starting in 1999. Since much of the world's financial sector and governments have dirtied themselves with Jiang in the persecution, when that day comes, it will mean that everything, everywhere is limit down. The liquidity will be gone, the algos will be off. Markets will no longer be made. It is what it is. In the meantime, nothing about what's going on with silver is bearish. Prices are low and it makes you want to sell, but it's actually a situation where you want to go long. I believe that $21.20~ or $20.80 is what it's aiming for, and afterwards, the target will be at least $29. So, what about options? One of the ways you can trade this move is calls on the SLV BlackRock ETF. Getting in at $19~ and seeing a $10 move would push the ETF to at least $30. There are two things that are significant about this: 1. Jan '24 at the money calls (based on the price right now) are $2.21 2. Average Implied volatility is only 24% and the 52W week low is 23.6% and the 52W high is 36%. What this means is that calls are cheap and if iVol were to expand on a bull run from say 26% to 40% you'd pick up an extra ~$1 per contract on top of the strike gains. The AGQ 2x Bull ETF has even more potential upside but it's a lot more risk and the swings are a lot more dramatic, for really obvious reasons. All of this also means you can speculate in mining ETFs and individual miners. You need to use the underlying commodities as your metronome, though. But this also means you'd have to be able to hold a winning position for 3 or 6 months. You'd want to take profits at $27 and $29. But if you get ahead of yourself and buy the $30+ high thinking that $50 and $100 and $500 are coming, you're likely to get seriously hurt. Something is going to happen in this world between now and Q1 2024 and it's not going to be good news for the people lost in delusion wanting to have happy days and be a big baller. Be careful, and happy trading.
COMEX:SI1!
by LordWrymouth
Big Flat! Sharp MoveHello friends, I hope you are having a productive week. I would like to share my ideas on the Elliott Wave Principle with you. Please refer to the attached chart for more information. If you are interested, you can also check out my previous analysis. I want to mention that my understanding of this principle is based on my personal experience and I am still learning, but I hope to provide better analysis in the future. Thank you for your continued support and I look forward to our mutual success. Best regards, Mr. Nobody. Go up and never stop.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
2
Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures. Silver, Inflation & GDP: The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return. Silver vs. Gold: A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold. Yields and Silver: The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side. Equities vs ‘real’ economy: Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold. Positioning: Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s. Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter. Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.atlantafed.org www.clevelandfed.org
COMEX:SI1!Long
by inspirante