AAL Cup and handle possiblitySeeing the sell off recently, there could be a correction to the upside over the next few weeks.
1AAL trade ideas
AAL updateNo changes to our previous expactations. We consider LONG as base scenario.
Additional justification for a long position can be provided by the statistics of seasonal fluctuations in stock prices over the last 10 years (see on the screen picture attached). While at the current moment the price is down by 5%/
AAL : Going LongFundamental Analysis
According to data released by Statista on August 29, 2023, AAL holds approximately 17.5% of the domestic market share among leading US airlines from February 2022 to January 2023. This marks the highest percentage of market share held by a single airline in the US, indicating a significant competitive advantage.
Furthermore, the airline industry is a crucial sector for economic growth, and governments typically strive to support major players within it to prevent failures.
My game plan is to invest in the top four airline companies in the US, based on their market share, at favorable values determined by price action. I already hold a position in UAL. The remaining airlines on my list are AAL, LUV, and DAL.
Technical Analysis
The current price is at the lower end of the channel, prompting me to initiate a position, representing approximately 2.5% of my capital as a single entry. I do not intend to increase this position further, even if the price experiences a significant decline. However, I will consider purchasing other airline stocks from my watchlist if they reach my desired entry levels.
Conclusion
If I decide to make any changes to my position in the future, I will provide updates to this post. Check out the posts, regarding my other Airline stock entries,which is attached underneath.
AAL - airlines are beat upAirlines have been decimated especially when you factor in the price of oil climbing over the last few weeks.
Margins being squeezed each day!
Long term support is being tagged in a very oversold 8 week selloff.
This could be a good R/R set up on the long side for a quick technical bounce.
Preparing for Takeoff ✈️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
AAL has been overall bullish trading inside the flat rising wedge pattern and it is currently approaching the lower bound / red trendline.
Moreover, the zone 12.5 - 13.0 is a strong support.
🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
As per my trading style:
As AAL approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
47.08 it's real ?Certainly, here's the translation of your message into English:
"It's worth keeping an eye on these. If they give an opportunity, I'll buy on March 14th.
UPD: I'm observing the developmental trend using the Shields and Bottoms methodology. (Every time it's a higher shield, and every time it's a higher bottom.) At the moment, we've bounced off 78.6% from the last downward trend and are in a correctional movement. The bulls' strength is starting to show in the vicinity of $14.50-$14.60 per share. Since we broke the support at 68.1% on the Fibonacci from the last growth movement, I expect a reaction around $14.05-$14.00 per share. When a signal candle appears, I will open a deal with a stop at the last confirmed bottom (LCB) of $12.65 and the first take profit (TP) at 75% of the deal, which is $19.08. After that, it's just a matter of adjusting the stop loss according to the LCB and LTP methodology.
Please note that the stop loss is only imaginary, and it is represented on the chart as an Alert. If the price reaches $12.65 and the next bullish candle takes us back into the range, the deal will continue to be held."
I hope this helps! If you have any more questions or need further translations, feel free to ask.
Impact of FAA Regulations and Rumors in Aerospace Stock TradingInvesting in aerospace-related stocks can be a lucrative endeavor due to the industry's potential for growth and innovation. You may find a lot of long-term investors holding major airline stocks (especially, positions added during COVID lows) and relatively new aerospace startups. However, it is essential to closely monitor and consider the impact of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations and even rumors on their investment decisions even if you’re not day trading these stocks. In this article, we explore real-life examples of how FAA regulations have negatively affected the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector, highlighting the crucial role of monitoring and reacting to regulatory developments.
Example #1. FAA Limits on Flight Numbers and the Plunge in US Airline Stocks:
The FAA recently imposed restrictions on the number of flights to alleviate pressure on the national airspace. While this regulation aims to enhance safety and efficiency, it has directly impacted US airline stocks, such as American Airlines (AAL). Airlines faced reduced capacity and higher operational costs. This resulted in decreased revenue and profitability, causing a sharp decline in American Airlines' stock price. Investors who were not prepared for this regulatory change suffered losses. However, in reality this has been a topic of conversation since April, so the late June announcement shouldn’t have caught anybody by surprise. If taken proper measures, the positions might have been cashed out at July highs until the FAA inevitable reduces the geography of this regulation. Which it already started as of 3-4 weeks ago, meaning we can expect a retracement soon.
Example #2. Minimum Flight Time Requirements and the Struggles of EVTOL Companies:
FAA regulations now require small aircraft, including Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (EVTOL) vehicles, to have a minimum flight time of 30 minutes. This regulation has posed significant challenges for EVTOL companies like Joby Aviation, as battery technology limitations make meeting this requirement very difficult. For instance, even industry leaders like Joby Aviation, despite its high potential, faced setbacks due to the FAA's minimum flight time regulation. The company's stock price suffered as investors became wary of the challenges presented by battery size limitations amid this new requirement.
Some other example of FAA regulations impacting aerospace stocks include:
1. Noise Restrictions: Recent FAA regulations aimed at reducing aircraft noise levels have affected companies specializing in quieter aviation technologies.
2. Safety Mandates: Stricter safety regulations have led to increased research and development costs for aerospace companies, impacting their profitability.
3. Environmental Regulations: Regulations promoting sustainable aviation and reducing carbon emissions have influenced aerospace companies' strategies, causing fluctuations in their stock performance.
As you may see FAA regulations have a substantial and immediate impact on the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector. However, this analogy was just an example because of my personal interest as a PhD in Aerospace Engineering and investor into several aerospace stocks. In reality, when trading/investing you should always stay up to date with regulations imposed by your governing body (food or pharmacy should watch out for FDA and so on). Knowledge is power, dear community members. So stay alert and informed in any comfortable way for you. Some like to watch Bloomberg, some read yahoo finance. In reality, you can substitute that by reading through some of the deep good breakdowns by fellow TradingView writers. Make the most out of it!
AAL trade planPossible trade plan based on straddle detected. Idea valid almost up to October, 20.
Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance.
We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combination with our own strategy, not in alone.
Stocks pairs trading: DAL vs AALDelta Air Lines (DAL)
Valuation: P/E and Forward P/E ratios suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings.
Earnings and Revenue: Strong earnings expected next year, and overall better profitability.
Performance: Stronger recent performance across different time frames, including YTD.
Ownership: Higher institutional ownership, which can be a sign of institutional confidence.
Dividends: Paying dividends, although the yield is low.
Recommendation: Analysts have a "strong buy" or "buy" recommendation, with a target price considerably above the current price.
American Airlines (AAL)
Valuation: Extremely low P/E and Forward P/E, which could indicate either significant undervaluation or skepticism.
Earnings and Revenue: Slightly less optimistic outlook for future earnings growth.
Performance: Generally weaker performance, particularly in the shorter term.
Ownership: Lower institutional ownership, which might indicate less institutional confidence.
Dividends: Not paying dividends.
Recommendation: Analysts have a "hold" recommendation, with a moderate target price above the current level.
Potential Strategy
Go Long on DAL: Given its stronger performance metrics, better institutional ownership, and more favorable analyst recommendations, DAL seems to be the stronger candidate for a long position.
Go Short on AAL: With its lower performance metrics, less favorable valuation ratios, and lower institutional ownership, AAL could be the candidate for a short position.
How Oil Data Could Impact Airlines:
Increase in Oil Prices: The Brent crude oil spot price is forecasted to increase from $79 to $83 in 2023 and up to $86 in 2024. Higher fuel prices generally mean increased operational costs for airlines, affecting profitability.
U.S. Crude Oil Production: It's forecasted to increase, which could potentially help offset some of the price increases, although the impact might be marginal given the percentage change.
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: A decrease in inventories generally means higher prices. Airlines use jet fuel, which is closely related to gasoline, so this could further increase operational costs.
GDP Growth: A slower GDP growth rate could mean less consumer and business spending on travel, affecting the airline sector's growth.
Implications for DAL and AAL:
Profit Margins: Both airlines will face challenges with rising fuel costs. However, DAL's stronger financials could make it more resilient in absorbing these costs compared to AAL.
Operational Efficiency: Rising costs might make operational efficiency even more critical. DAL's potential for operational efficiencies could serve it well here.
Debt Levels: Rising oil prices and potentially higher interest rates could make debt servicing more challenging. DAL has a Debt/Eq of 2.49, while AAL has no long-term debt, potentially making AAL less susceptible to this particular challenge.
Consumer Behavior: If higher operational costs are passed onto consumers, the willingness to spend on travel might be affected, given the already increasing interest rates and softening of some travel indicators as per the previous analysis. This could hit both airlines but might hurt AAL more if travelers opt for more financially stable airlines during uncertain times.
Final Strategy:
Long on 1*DAL: Despite rising fuel costs, DAL’s better financials and potential for operational efficiencies could make it a more resilient investment.
Short on 3*AAL: AAL’s weaker financials, higher volatility, and greater susceptibility to sector-wide challenges make it a candidate for a short position.
AAL higher lowsAmerican Airlines made 3 recent lows at an inflection point, made a slightly higher high and if reverses here at this current level ( a decent inflection point)it will make a higher low and a higher high. we have plotted a stop loss for a 3 to1 play.
AAL Technical analysis, fib correctionNASDAQ:AAL idea, Looking for a small retrace to the 1.618 reversal fibonacci. Previous demand zone at the same ranges of the key points. In my opinion is a perfect entry for bullish swings.
A little too soon butToo early to tell, but it looks a potential HS forming. I just bought some puts expire 08/18 strike 16.5. I'm actually very bullish across the market but I like some shorts to have some balance. Price could also break up and keep going up, but if I see a rejection I'll buy more puts.
20% time to fly againAAL has consolidated very well at these levels, recovering some of the lost value. This correction creates an upward movement with a potential of over 20%, con una cuña expansiva y el precio terminando la estructura.
American Airlines is in an uptrend >>>55-63Price of AAL is rebounded from the strong demand zone and now flying to its attractive supply zone 55-63 $
American Airlines is flying soonAccording to the Elliot Wave Count, there is a possibility that in the next few days, American Airlines will start to increase its price.
This price increase will be around 25% to 30% and the price target is between 19 and 22 dollars.
Ready to collect for long termFollowing weekly. American Airlines break the trendline and got getting confirmation. A nice one to collect for long term.
AAL Looks Good Fore Me To Buy Now As it shown on the chart my Entry price is 17.5
and my stop loss is Closing lower than 17$
the target is 25$
What do you think about NASDAQ:AAL
American Airlines preparing for takeoffBuckle your seat belts ladies and gentlemen...support forming at touch-point 5 along the up-sloping trendline. Primary target at $45 interest. This projection coincides with new airline markets opening, cancellation of first class seats in new ordered planes, and projection of oil rising over the next years--especially leading into elections.
Is America Airlines about to take off?
With a 20% higher than expected earnings today and also raising future expectations...is American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL about to "take off" ? ✈️✈️✈️
EARNINGS RELEASED: Exp 1.59 / Rep 1.92 (20.6% higher than expected)
- Breaking diagonal resistance line
- Price peaking above the 200 week SMA
- Nice to see 200 week SMA slope up now (TBC)
- Ideally OBV to make a new higher high (TBC)
Pre-market coming in lower. Pull back to $17 before continuation would not surprise me. I would enter having established support on the 200 week SMA. I would be waiting here. An eventual rise to over head resistance possible.
Aal must go run Chart is looking good that chart is logarithmic weekly chart my target is between 26-35 in one year
America Airlines (AAL) Starts New Impulse HigherShort term view in AAL (America Airlines) suggests the rally from 5.24.2023 low is ongoing as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.24.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 16.78 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 15.92. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 16, wave (b) ended at 16.39, and wave (c) lower 15.92. This completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
The stock has turned higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 16.32 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 16.11. The stock resumes higher again in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 16.49 and pullback in wave ii ended at 16.27. The stock resumes higher in wave iii towards 17.48 and dips in wave iv ended at 17.12. The stock extends higher in wave v towards 17.98. This completed wave (iii) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 17.51. Up from wave (iv), wave i ended at 17.94 and pullback in wave ii ended at 17.67. Near term, as far as pivot at 15.92 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
American Airlines Stock Price Poised to Break Out to New HighAmerican Airlines has broken through a key resistance level of $17.0 and set a new 52-week high on weekly charts. This suggests that the stock has changed its momentum and is poised for further upward movement. NASDAQ:AAL
