We know what to do here..I was not going to post this one... but decided, ehh.. why not. I think we know what to do here. I will be jumping in this morning pretty quickly... I think the smart people can see it. Watch and lean how it's done if not... like my stalker boy who will be getting a knock on his door and a little wake up call.
1BA trade ideas
$BA if this is a bounce...Then the next stop is about $225 and we stay in this range, you don't really need to be bullish, just believe that this stays in this range. It could have gone all the way down to $175, but held low $180's and now looks to be making the next push back up. A lot of psychological marks to get through though, $200, $205 $210 etc. Unless we get a big news item (like this Qatar deal) that helps big buying, maybe we can push through several in one day.
BA: What Traders Are Missing About Boeing (pt. 6)From early 2017 to March of 2019 Boeing went soaring to almost 3 times the price from $150 to $440, but why? People were traveling more than ever, planes needed to be replaced, new technology was increasing profit margins. There were numerous reasons to be long transportation stocks, especially Boeing. Boeing was king and had the shiniest bike on the block. Every airline wanted what Boeing was putting out! Then came the fall of the MAX. Two crashes in 6 months and airlines lost all their confidence in Boeing's new commercial airliner. Hundreds of planes grounded in 24 hours and Boeing was now under the microscope by every airline and Government travel safety authority. Boeing's reputation was destroyed. There's a great quote by Warren Buffet, "it takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it." That is exactly what happened to Boeing.
So...let's look at the numbers!
As it stands currently, Boeing's revenue is LOW. We are talking 2010 low. They've taken off a 35% haircut in annual revenue since the glory years of 2017- early 2019 and have repeatedly reported negative earnings. What people fail to realize in Boeing is that (like NVDA) stocks get hyped up and people flood their money into stocks irrationally. Boeing was just the next target for this buying frenzy. Before the major run-up Boeing presented better earnings and was AT BEST a $140-$150 stock, so why are traders thinking it'll go back to above $300? Could be they don't know any better, could be they believe BA will go back to it's former glory days in a matter of a few months, could also be that their just brain washed "BTFD-ers". Any way you look at it, BA isn't that shiny bike anymore and all it's luster has faded. Sure numbers will pick up eventually, but it'll be a long time before we ever see Boeing above $300 again. If BA is going in any direction it's back to $100-$150 or even lower.
Not financial advice
$BA - Can we see it as trend line retest?In my previous chart, I mentioned that BA could play out double bottom and it did.
Since then, BA has pulled back and now retesting the descending wedge. Will it bounce from here, or will it break down like it did before?
It seems $230 area has been painfully stubborn area.
If it bounce from here and break above $210, there is a chance that it can see $230 again. If by some miracle, it breaks through $230, we can expect $245 area.
On the other hand, if it breaks down from here, it can revisit $185 area.
It's all depends on whether we stay above $199 or breaks below it.
Bullish target 1 - $230
Bullish target 2 - $245
Bearish target - $185
Earning on 01/26 (tmr) will determine if we see $230 or $185. We won't have to wait long.
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How to read my charts?
- Matching color trend lines shows the pattern. Sometimes a chart can have multiple patterns. Each pattern will have matching color trend lines.
- The yellow horizontal lines shows support and resistance areas.
- Fib lines also shows support and resistance areas.
- The dotted white lines shows price projection for breakout or breakdown target.
Disclaimer: Do your own DD. Not an investment advice.
$BA moment of truth...Big, big day tomorrow. Earnings that just so happen to fall on FED minutes day...could be a flier or a huge dump, happened to be successful yesterday buying $210 call and $220's at the bottom and selling $215's and $225's for the same price so I'm getting a free play for earnings. We'll see how it all shakes out tomorrow...
BA Intraday Outlook BA has been maintaining a bullish sentiment. On the daily, it looks like a potential bear flag; however, historically BA daily charts don't really follow through with bear flags. I expect maybe a V shaped path followed by a fall to the downside.
My linear regression model of BA shows to watch for highs of around 206 - 209 to the upside (there is strong resistance around 209 on the charts as well) and lows of 190-198. However, based on how BA traded yesterday, IMO if we fall below 194 we would be heading down aggressively. These values are adjusted (by me) based on the SD and chart support/resistance levels.
I would be short biased in the 206-209 region, long biased in the 195 - 198 region. If we fall below 194, I would be short biased for a bigger move.
I was originally swing trading a BA short from 205 tomorrow with an exit of 198 for tomorrow, but I ended up hitting buy instead of sell for SPY on a trade today and ended up accidently wiping out almost all of my earnings today (it took me 2 minutes to realize what I had done and SPY immediately started free falling once I hit that buy button of course). So I decided to take that profit at the end of day to just call it a break even day.
Tomorrow is going to be a disaster though, with earnings and FOMC meeting. These are things that can't really be accounted for in modelling so I am going to be extra cautious. However, based on SPY and DIA's behaviour, I expect a hard bearish start to the market tomorrow.
DISCLAIMER:
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
I am not a financial planner or know anything about finance. I am an ex Nurse/Epidemiologist and literally am just inputting market variables into models used for infection rate case predictions, which has yielded mixed results over the year, but enough for me to support myself and dog :-).
I do my linear regression in SPSS so cannot show you the plots or histograms, but if you have any questions I would be happy to answer them!
$BA recovery with the market...What a crazy day in the market, BA tested under $200 and recovered to close solidly over $200 with the market rebound. Now we have earnings coming up pre-market Wednesday, still waiting on China MAX approval, a few potential catalysts to get this thing going back the right direction.
BA remains bearish We had a flat top bearish candle form yesterday on the daily chart with Heikin Ashi and it continued today.
Historically, from the formation of the flat top bearish trend, BA falls on average of 12%.
With earnings coming up next week (January 26th) I think we will have continued sell off.
There is also a lot of psychology backing my thinking. BA has been performing so poorly this year and has been THE biggest drag on my long term holdings. You can bet that I was quick to cut them loose once we came back to the 220s and took my profits there. I bet many other people who were invested in this long term are also looking to GTFO of their BA positions because it has just been such a drain this year, the company fundamentally is poorly managed and its future is being challenged with makers like Airbus and Embraer (I personally took the money I had invested in BA and moved it over to Airbus because of the clear display of poor management BA has had over the past 2 years, I was just greatful that I didn't have to take a loss).
My price target is $200 (10% pullback) and then $194 (13% pullback) if 200 support is broken. I could be wrong. Who knows. BA and TSLA are like the psycho ex that just doesn't listen and does things just to screw you over. But we will see!
Disclaimer: NOT financial advice. These are my opinions and I have been known to be wrong.
BAWe did break the dow sloping resiatnce of this considation around 223$. Howver the key reistNce to watch is 234$ if we close above 234 all longs should be placed as that is our monster weekly resiatnce until that happens it’s easy for BA to fake out or pull back as this consildation range has chppped for months between 204-234 with 2 wicks to 187. That being said stay patient and ready for a break and hold above 234 until the i would sit on your hands. If you do want to place upside bets just watch 222$ area for break as that could be a warning sign.