Technical Pressure, but a Bullish Setup Brewing? Open AI🚀 C3.ai (Ticker: AI) – Technical Pressure, but a Bullish Setup Brewing?
C3.ai has faced a sharp decline in 2025, slipping below key industry benchmarks and triggering technical warning signs. The stock is currently trading under both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), signaling short-term weakness.
However, Black Whale's technical team has identified a powerful formation: C3.ai has touched the same support zone four times, creating a solid base around the $17–18 range. This repeated bottoming behavior signals strong demand at lower levels and a potential launchpad for upside movement.
C3.ai Underperforms Sector – But Could Be Undervalued
So far this year, C3.ai shares have dropped 40.8%, significantly underperforming the Black Whale Computer & Technology sector benchmark, which fell just 14.9%, and the Black Whale IT Services industry index, down 17%. The economic slowdown has caused many businesses to reduce spending on advanced tech solutions, impacting demand for C3.ai’s enterprise-focused AI platforms.
The company also faces profitability challenges due to high operational costs from scaling, onboarding partners, and supporting global infrastructure. Still, at current levels, the stock trades at a 54.8% discount to its 52-week high of $45.08 — while sitting nearly 20% above its 52-week low of $17.03, reaffirming the technical floor.
Analysts Turn Slightly More Optimistic
The Black Whale analyst consensus for C3.ai’s FY2025 and FY2026 losses has improved in the last 60 days, with estimates narrowing to a loss of $0.45 (from $0.62) and $0.46 (from $0.55), respectively. Revenue estimates are also encouraging: expected to grow by 29.7% in FY2025 and 22.4% in FY2026.
Partnerships Driving Momentum
Strategic alliances are fueling C3.ai’s global expansion. The partnership with Microsoft continues to deliver, with 28 new joint deals closed across nine industries. Sales cycles with Microsoft have shortened by 20%, thanks to improved go-to-market alignment. Currently, over 600 active enterprise opportunities are being pursued globally under this collaboration.
C3.ai has also deepened partnerships with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and launched a new collaboration with McKinsey’s QuantumBlack. These partnerships are turning into real revenue engines, allowing C3.ai to scale with minimal direct customer acquisition effort — 71% of Q3 deals were partner-driven.
Major new or expanded clients include GSK, Sanofi, ExxonMobil, Shell, Quest Diagnostics, and the New York Power Authority, along with deals in the U.S. federal sector with the Navy, Air Force, and Missile Defense Agency.
Leading the Charge in Generative and Agentic AI
C3.ai is positioning itself at the forefront of Generative and Agentic AI. In Q3, the company launched 20 new Generative AI pilots, including projects with Mars and multiple U.S. government agencies. A new time-series embedding model is accelerating deployment in complex enterprise environments. With over 130 pre-built AI applications, C3.ai is shifting from a model builder to a results-driven AI platform.
Financials – Revenue Growth Despite Headwinds
For fiscal Q3 2025, C3.ai reported $98.8 million in revenue — a 26% year-over-year increase. Subscription revenue made up 87% of that, growing 22% to $85.7 million. Notably, demo licenses used by partners like Microsoft and AWS brought in $28.6 million, showcasing the power of channel-led sales.
Valuation and Investor Outlook
C3.ai is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.71, which is slightly above the sector average of 5.39 but still below its historical average. Given the growth, partnership momentum, and strong bottoming structure, the Black Whale research team believes C3.ai may be entering a reversal phase.
Black Whale’s Take – A High-Conviction Watchlist Stock
Despite being under pressure, C3.ai is showing clear technical strength with four confirmed touches at its support base, solid revenue growth, narrowing losses, and a growing global footprint through powerful partnerships.
From our perspective at Black Whale, this is a high-conviction watchlist stock with real upside potential. With the right market sentiment and follow-through from institutional players, AI could be setting up for a strong rebound.
