1CVNA trade ideas
$CVNA-Regular Divergence Indicates Potential Bearish OpportunityCarvana ( NYSE:CVNA ), the innovative online used car retailer, has recently shown signs of a regular bearish divergence on its chart, indicating a potential reversal in its current trend. With an identified entry, stop loss, and take profit points, we could be looking at a shorting opportunity here.
Technical Indicators:
The regular bearish divergence, circled in yellow on the chart, suggests a weakening in the current uptrend. This pattern is often a sign of a potential upcoming bearish phase, making it an opportunity for short sellers.
Trade Setup:
Here's a potential trading setup based on the current technical indicators:
- Entry Price: 12.56
- Stop Loss: 13.70
- Take Profit 1: 10.77
- Take Profit 2: 9.13
This setup offers a good risk to reward ratio. The stop loss is set above the recent swing high, limiting potential losses if the price unexpectedly rises. The two take profit points allow for managing the trade more efficiently, taking some profit at the first target and letting the rest run if the price continues to move favorably.
Options Play:
For those interested in options, a Put option expiring on May 19th with a strike price of $10 could be a potential play. This would gain value if NYSE:CVNA stock price decreases, aligning with the bearish divergence.
NYSE:CVNA current technical setup suggests a potential bearish opportunity. However, as always, it's essential to manage risk effectively and ensure the trade aligns with your overall trading strategy.
*Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always do your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making investment decisions.*
Watchlist 2023-05-05 $SPY $ZION $FHN$FHN $LYFT $CVNA $GOLD $UPWKAMEX:SPY - gapping back into the 408.50 supply area after a battle at the bottom yesterday. 408.5 was the low at the FED day meeting and was the place that broken PD before trending lower to 403.50. I think it's important if we can get above and stay above this level, potentially testing 413.50 again if we do.
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
Region banks are again in play today, those that were not directly affected by yesterday's news (so aside from NASDAQ:PACW ) are gapping up on elevate RVOL.
NASDAQ:ZION - had a crazy flush down past the early pivot lows of 20.50. With the elevated vol that took place at this level it appears it was a form of capitulation. If we stay above PD high of 22.30, the long is in play. Look for early signs of strength with an engulfing move or a confirmation test off 22.30 or 21.80.
.
NYSE:FHN - same with FHN -support area is at the BO area from PD of 9.77. Looking for BO over 10.80.
NYSE:CVNA - rallied 25% in the aftermarket Thursday after the online used-car company narrowed a quarterly loss and said it expects to reach positive adjusted EBITDA in the current quarter. Up 48%, 4.3 ATRS, on 1.1 RVOL. Although it can get spicing for short is it gets above 10.83, it's up too much for a trade for me this morning, would need to see some base form perhaps around 9.74, 10.30 for confirmation
NASDAQ:LYFT - Lyft stock sinks as forecast falls short of estimates, while new CEO takes aim at Uber. Particularly important just after UBER posting terrific earnings and guidance. Support 8.60 and 8.22, which I think we certainly get to today. Res at 9.58. Need to see a pattern form with at least 2-1 RR, hopefully and intraday high to risk off or else this trade can't be taken at the current PM price of 9.12. Also need to see vol pick up as it's only at 1.1 RVOL.
Other Watches
TVC:GOLD under 20.00 Get short into a retest and failure of this area.
NASDAQ:UPWK - over 8.10
CVNA is in troubleCVNA benefitted from the huge increase in demand we saw for cars during the pandemic, however they have struggled to find their footing since.
The company is managed poorly, and has missed earnings almost every quarter since then. Additionally the companies spending has pushed their book value into the negative.
They are currently preparing to collateralize almost half a billion dollars in subprime auto loans: finance.yahoo.com
I do not believe that additional cash flow will help CVNA. Growing recession pressures and rising interest rates are stifling demand for used cars and they are going to continue to suffer.
Although CVNA has a strong business model, poor management has largely made this company insolvent.
I'm looking to short through earnings. I believe there may be some positive momentum this week, and will look to use that to get a discount on shares and puts.
I've seen a lot of bullish ideas for CVNA, arguing that because this stock has dropped 95% to 99% from it's ATH that is due to come back up. This is a poor argument. Just because a stock goes one direction does not mean it's due to go the other. You have to account for the companies financials and management.
CVNACarvana is at the bottom, trading between the 97-99 retracement of its all-time high. Long-term investors who believe in the future of online car shipping are starting to accumulate shares. Who knows you'll be able to buy Lambos there one day haha. The 2.618 and 3.618 extensions are labeled as potential X gains.
CVNA Short ContinuationShort idea.
Since the beginning of 2023, NYSE:CVNA has seen a run-up in February that has since run down. Based on the monthly market profiles, excess was generated > 16, and price has not been able to reclaim February's VAL. Currently trading below 200D and testing the 50D. Combined with today's gravestone candle, this feels like big sellers are present > 12.
Short targets: 9.75 / 10 / 10.50
Profit targets: 8.5 / 7.5 / 6.5 / 4.5
Trade is invalidated > 12
Watchlist 2023-04-11 $SPY $BABA $CVNA $TQQQ $SQQQ $SQAMEX:SPY - all eyes on US inflation rare YoY numbers, Consensus is 5.2%. If we get 5.1-5.3% I think it is too close to call and would be best to wait for open for a trend to join on pullbacks.
<5.3 is a sell immediately, weak names with high betas like NASDAQ:SQQQ , NYSE:BABA
>5.1 is an immediate buy, strong names with high betas like NASDAQ:TQQQ , SQ, NYSE:IONQ NYSE:CVNA , NASDAQ:GOOG
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
Watchlist 2023-04-04 $SPY $SQQQ $TQQQ $PLTR $FDX $CVNA SPY -finally put in a red day after breaking through the 407 pivot and then finding support there at EOD. Relatively flat this morning as we await important economic data that will likely dedicate whether the Fed hikes in May. The most important value is at 9:45 S&P Global Services PMI Final for Mar: Prior 53.8. Watch for the reaction at this time for clues on direction. Also, watch if we fail to get through 409 early on.
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
$ADD pinned near +\-2000
$VOLD ratio over +/- 3
$TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
If we see weak econ numbers at 9:45, looking to play the downside of tech with $SQQQ.
$PLTR - Palantir And Microsoft Expand Cloud Partnership To Public Sector. Nice move in the PM gapping above the 8.60 range, finding PM resistance at the 200 EMA 8.85. However, will need to see Vol pick up as it only has 0.7 RVOL in the PM. Best play is likely an Gap n go off the 8.60 support unless vol really picks up. Will also heavily rely on the SPY today so if SPY is weak this trade won't be as powerful.
$FDX - FedEx stock gains after company announces dividend boost, plans to consolidate. Bounce play of 230.
Other Watches
$CVNA - over 10.30
$CVNA - Gap up?After being beat down to $12, it broke out yesterday and looks like it wants to touch the $18 range again. Then a pullback to find support maybe around $15-$16 range. I dont know. It’s been getting beat down a lot lately and its just primed to go higher. I don’t see them letting it run to $20 plus yet, their probably gonna halt today to stop that. We’ll see! LMK what you think.