1CYTH trade ideas
New lows very likley History of LUMN is very likely to repeat. Complacency in this market and especially in this stock is astounding. As the market corrects in the coming weeks and months, the stocks that have rallied the most will collapse the most. The chart says this is just a short covering rally fueled by the AI fairytale of an infinite bull market.
LUMN a fifty year Wall Street Cheat Sheet The only cycle that matters is the Wall Street Cheat Sheet
Forget sector rotation
You’re about to see supposedly ded stonks arise like the phoenix
Industry 4 and web 3 requires infrastructure
I’d rather bet on edge computing than centralised cloud
Upside here is tremendous
Downside limited imo
My fav murican stonk rn
Big tech is dying you have to think ahead
GRI 2023
Light up your life with LUMNTicker: LUMN
Key data:
* Market cap: $6.85b
Execution metrics:
* Entry: $6.74
* TP: $7.58
* SL: $4.69
Profit paths:
* Buy shares at market open
* Nov15 $6 call
Technical Support:
* Money flow: Positive
* POI: pivot points
* Justification: Leaving demand. Strong rejection + engulf close. Multiple bullish ranges.
Fundamental Support:
* Analyst 1Y target: $4.62
* Next earnings: Nov 5 2024
* Justification: Debt reducing YoY, net income increasing QoQ, net margin improving QoQ
Massively overbought going into a recessionThe hopium of this stock is that it will help build the AI infrastructure. The problem is that AI infrastructure is already overbuilt and we are going into massive layoffs in the tech sector. Furthermore, the AI bubble is wakeup call is that like back in the internet bull run, most companies that have been buying all the tech to turn into an AI company will go bust, leaving a huge void in sales for everyone. NVDA included.
LUMN - Collaboration with Microsoft - AI driven DatacenterWith 450,000 route miles of fiber, Lumen Technologies is one of the United States' largest telecommunications carriers serving global enterprises. Its merger with Level 3 in 2017 and divestiture of much of its incumbent local exchange carrier, or ILEC, business in 2022 has shifted the company's operations away from its legacy consumer business and toward enterprises (now about 75% of revenue). Lumen offers businesses a full menu of communications services, providing colocation and data center services, data transportation, and end-user phone and internet service. On the consumer side, Lumen provides broadband and phone service across 37 states, where it has 4.5 million broadband customers.
Recent News:
Microsoft and Lumen Technologies partner to power the future of AI and enable digital transformation to benefit hundreds of millions of customers
Breakout Zone: $1.80
Action: If the stock breaks above this area with strong volume, it might signal a continuation of the upward trend.
We might see a pullback first to 1.30 area - where is a great entry.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Currently, the market seems to be in a correction phase. It’s crucial to consider this sentiment when making trading decisions.
Resistance Points:
$2.30
$2.70
$3.40
$4.00
Surpassing these levels could signal a positive trend. Consider taking profits at these stages to realize gains.
Trading Strategy:
Take Profit (TP): Set a target at $5.00 (full gap fill), with a potential for reaching $9.50 if market conditions are favorable.
Stop Loss (SL): Set at under $0.95 to mitigate potential losses.
Chart Analysis:
Please refer to the attached chart for detailed analysis of price trends and movements.
Trading Advisory:
Exercise caution and consider market conditions and your own risk tolerance when trading. It's advisable to conduct comprehensive research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in trading activities.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Lumen Technologies - Bullish divergenceOn the above 12 day chart price action has corrected over 90% since early 2022. Now is an excellent moment for a long position. Why?
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Regular bullish divergence.
3) Support on past resistance. See 2 month chart below.
Is it possible price action drops further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: 6% or less
Timeframe for long: This month
Return: Not got a clue
2.month
LUMN to $5 - some dayI believe Lumen will reclaim it's $5 price _some_ day. I don't know when, but some day. The internet could not run without Lumen and companies like them. I don't see them going anywhere. The stonk is up today on the news that James Fowler, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Nationwide joined the board. This is a patience play, I'm long-term accumulating via DCA.
LUMN: Bullish Gartley Visible on the 3-Month ChartShares of Lumen Technologies are currently sitting at the HOP Level of a Massive Bullish Gartley that is visible on higher timeframes such as the Monthly and Quarterly Charts. It is also showing Bullish Divergence on the MACD and RSI and looks to be ready to make a move towards $6.00 in the short term, but the situation could evolve into a bigger long term move towards $25.00 and $50.00
Investors run towards disaster -- Lumen is a complete disaster.Lumen *could* be a possible risky bet with a rise in interest rates. A LOT of the risk has been priced out with a complete COLLAPSE of the price. They have a lot of debt, not as much as other companies. What are we buying here? Telecom infrastructure and computing edge technology (google it). Which is physical telephone poles in the good ole' US of A. They are a subcompany of AT&T and the old Bell System (I don't want to use the term 'subsidy' because that's not accurate More Info Here ), which is one of the largest telecom companies in the US -- likely NOT to go under....ever.
We all know what the Fed is likely to do -- the dollars tomorrow will be worth less than today's. However, serious investors understand that they should run towards a disaster instead of hiding -- Lumen could be that disaster, at least in the short term as the chart indicates.
This is a long term play, not a short one. Let's assume the all time high would be challenged, that's almost a 25x from here! It's not going to happy ANY TIME soon, nor should you make the assumption that it will happen. What do we know? That it's a GREAT buying opportunity right now for the long term. We are talking at least 2030 - 2035 timeframe -- at a MINIMUM!
Lumn in Accumulation Phase ?Despite all the negative news around LUMN, negative cash flow, negative EBITDA and finally negative outlook from market analysts, LUMN remains a pioneer in data infrastructure and fiber provider in the US market + the market cap ($1.5B) is far below it is total equity fair value ( MUN:10B ).
in other words, the fair price to the current situation is around 7 time the current stock price with negative outlook, this can be reduced by 50% which means 3,5 * 1,4 == around $5. (this is my personal analysis taking the worst financials case of LUMN for the next 4 quarters).
The weekly and monthly charts show continues sell off with possible accumulation phase just started, in the coming months this can be confirmed if we see price stabilization around $1 and volume remains high.
As per Fintel data, the institutional ownership percentage is dropping for the (at least) second quarter in a row.
This is an opportunity to target 2026/2027 at least, less then 5% of the capital to be allocated.
return may exceed 1000% (not guaranteed in shorter term), loss of 100% is highly possible if the new CEO fails to save the company + worst debt with higher yields.
Position open, target price $10.
Good luck everyone :)
$LUMN A Long Term OptionTelecommunications giant Lumen Technology (NYSE: LUMN) is in the process of turning around its business as it looks to keep up with the market. While LUMN stock is down 60% YTD, the company’s turnaround plan appears to be moving in the right direction which is backed up by the high institutional ownership in the stock. With this in mind, LUMN is currently trading near a 35-year low – making its current PPS an attractive entry in anticipation of a rebound.
LUMN Fundamentals
The transformation LUMN is undergoing to offer more digital services to keep up with the market has been costly. Since the start of the year, LUMN stock has been down almost 60%, and earlier this month, after LUMN released its Q1 2023, many analysts cut their price targets for the stock due to the $19 billion debt load on its balance sheet. LUMN has also been seeing a relatively high short interest of 13.68%, which reflects the negative sentiment some of the investors have toward LUMN.
However, LUMN appears to be moving in the right direction to successfully turn around its business. Although LUMN’s cash burn was expected to increase due to the transformation of its business, the company successfully reduced its operating costs YoY in Q1 by 7%. At the same time, fiber installations exceeded their copper counterparts in Q1 and this gap is expected to widen in the future. All of these metrics are strong proof that LUMN’s transformation could bear fruit in the future.
This sentiment is backed up by LUMN’s institutional ownership since institutions own nearly 82% of the company. Given that institutions have kept their investment in the company so far is telling that the company’s plan has a high chance of success which would reflect on the LUMN stock price in the end.
However, a major risk that may derail LUMN is its excessive debt load of $19 billion. With this in mind, LUMN has been actively addressing this risk as it reduced its principal debt balance by $620 million through exchange offers for senior notes last March. In addition, LUMN is looking to allocate all proceeds from its $1.8 billion EMEA business sale to reduce its debt. Based on this, the LUMN stock forecast appears to be bright for 2023 and beyond.
In the meantime, LUMN stock is trading near a 35-year low which it has historically bounced off to gain 15% at least. With that in mind, LUMN stock could be one to buy at current levels in anticipation of a bounce in the near term. Meanwhile, LUMN’s current PPS could prove to be a bargain for investors bullish on the company’s turnaround plan.
LUMN Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, LUMN’s assets slightly decreased from $5.420 billion to $5.405 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents decreased 8% YoY from $1.25 billion to $1.148 billion. LUMN’s total liabilities saw a slight increase of 1.8% YoY from $35.1 billion to $34.5 billion.
Revenue also decreased 20% YoY from $4.676 billion to $3.738 billion. Operating costs decreased 7% from $3.59 billion to $3.34 billion, which contributed to operating income declining nearly 64% YoY from $1.08 billion to $0.390 billion, which amounted to a net income of $511 million – a 14% decrease YoY.
Technical Analysis
LUMN stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $2.1 and $2.59. Looking at the indicators the stock is trading below the 21, 50, and 200 MAs which are bearish indications. However, the RSI is oversold at 21 and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, LUMN stock just witnessed a catalyst earlier this month in its Q1 2023 earnings release, following which the stock dropped near its 52-week low. With this in mind, LUMN is trading near its $2.1 support and is oversold at the moment which makes it a strong candidate to run in the near term.
LUMN Forecast
LUMN is currently in the middle of transforming its business. Some analysts believe the risks of the $19 billion in debt outweigh the rewards, while institutions are still holding onto their shares in LUMN stock believing that it is taking steady steps toward stability. LUMN stock is also trading near its 30-year low, which it has historically bounced off and gained more than 15%. As the market’s opinion stays split, LUMN remains a stock to watch amidst its turnaround attempt.
Buying the LUMEN Technologies DipLumen (formerly CenturyLink) is a large telecommunications company that carries a large debt ratio and its stock has under performed for 10+ years.
I like this dip as a buying opportunity before the upcoming earning. LUMN is printing a 52 week low. We haven't seen these stock prices since 1987. It was hit by two cyber attacks in late March.
I think it could bounce very soon or go as low as $1.67, before heading up to $5.
LUMN | I Started Adding Here | BounceLumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers compute and application services, such as edge cloud services, IT solutions, unified communication and collaboration solutions, colocation and data center services, content delivery services, and managed security services; and IP and data services, including VPN data network, Ethernet, internet protocol (IP), and voice over internet protocol. The company also provides fiber infrastructure services comprising high bandwidth optical wavelength networks; and unlit optical fiber and related professional services. In addition, it offers voice and other services, including private line services, a direct circuit or channel specifically dedicated for connecting two or more organizational sites; a portfolio of traditional time division multiplexing voice services; and synchronous optical network-based ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.
3rd to 4th Industrial Revolution: LUMNLumn, as CenturyLink played a role in the infrastructure for the 3rd Industrial Revolution
It is now positioning itself to lead the 4th…
“Navigate the challenges and harness the benefits of the 4th Industrial Revolution
For businesses facing the challenges and opportunities of rapidly modernizing their IT systems, Lumen offers a flexible, managed platform that bridges network, data center, cloud, managed services and Edge Computing with Connected Security. Businesses can leverage IT infrastructure and services across all layers of the hybrid IT stack to build connected systems across multiple cloud platforms and the edge to match workloads to the best execution venue.”
Lumn has just ditched its dividend in lieu of future buybacks and growth
It has a lot of debt
But the chart is right off the cheat sheet
IF stonks and crypto are bottoming here I want to be in industry 4 and web 3 and NOT industry 3 and web 2
There aren’t many US stocks that are positioned correctly for the reset and Industry 4.0
At these prices I’m taking a significant bet on LUMN
You don’t have to ofc
GRI 2023
