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1ELX trade ideas

Estee Lauder ($NYSE:EL) touching key levels: time to buy?TLDR: Estee Lauder's recent price action at the historic monthly trend line and the $176 resistance level presents an intriguing trading opportunity. While considering the potential correction in the broader market, the stock's undervaluation based on fundamentals adds further appeal. As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough analysis, manage risk effectively, and remain adaptive to changing market conditions. By closely monitoring Estee Lauder's price action, traders may capitalize on a potential long opportunity. Introduction: In this trading idea, we will be focusing on Estee Lauder ( NYSE:EL ), a company that has recently touched a historic monthly trend line, coinciding with a significant resistance level at $176. With the broader market, represented by the S&P 500 (SPX), showing signs of a potential correction from its recent bullish run, we will explore the potential trading opportunity that Estee Lauder presents. Technical Analysis: Estee Lauder's price action has reached a critical juncture, with the stock touching a historic monthly trend line alongside the notable resistance level at $176. This convergence of key levels adds significance to the current price action and warrants close attention from traders. Market Context: Considering the broader market conditions, it appears that the SPX may be on the brink of a correction following its recent strong upward movement. This context should be taken into account when assessing the potential trade. Fundamental Analysis: Despite the uncertainty in the market, Estee Lauder shows promise from a fundamental perspective. The company is currently undervalued based on its fundamentals and growth projections. This suggests that there may be underlying strength in the stock, which could support a potential bounce. Trade Idea: Given the technical and fundamental factors discussed, it is prudent to closely monitor Estee Lauder for a potential long position. If the stock demonstrates resilience in the face of broader market headwinds and successfully breaks above the $176 resistance level, it could signal a strong bullish move. Risk Management: As with any trade, proper risk management is essential. Traders should consider setting a stop-loss order below key support levels to protect against downside risk. Additionally, monitoring market conditions, news events, and any significant developments within the company is crucial to assess the ongoing viability of the trade. Disclaimer: This trading idea is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and exercise due diligence before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
NYSE:ELLong
by arielfuggini
3
$EL Upgraded – Bottom Fishing ReversalNYSE:EL I bought a ¼ size position yesterday, June 14, and added again this morning on follow through. Now ½ sized. It recaptured it’s 21 EMA yesterday and just barely had a Pocket Pivot. I have a tight stop on this as it’s way below the 50 DMA and the 40 Week MA. If you like bottom fishing, you might want to look at this one. Oh, and they also say they are working on an anti-aging cosmetic… but who isn’t? Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
NYSE:ELLong
by jaxdog
EL - due for some rebound (bullish divergence)After a heaving sell off, EL appears to be finding support at the 78.6% fib retracement of it's major upswing AB (see mthly chart on Left). Odds appear good that a rebound could be in the works as the bullish divergence seen on the daily chart spanning over the last few weeks is now supported by a mildly bullish divergence seen on the monthly chart as well. I would consider to long upon the clearance of the last candle high @ 189 with a small stop loss about $1 below the recent low @ 182. Raise stop loss to breakeven as soon as it is able to clear 195 with a possible exit around $209. Just a short term trading idea with 1 : 2.5 risk-reward ratio. Let's see if it works out! Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:ELLong
by Juliac
Seizing the Opportunity Greetings, traders! Today, I am thrilled to present a compelling long trade opportunity that revolves around a fair value gap at $181.41. This trade aims to capture potential upward momentum, with a specific target set at buyside liquidity, offering an attractive risk-reward ratio. Based on thorough analysis, I have identified an opportune entry point at fair value gap. This area represents a significant support level, providing a solid foundation for initiating a long position. To manage risk effectively, it is recommended to place a stop loss at $185.29. By positioning the stop loss above the order block, we aim to limit potential losses in case of an adverse price movement. The profit target for this trade is set at $201.84, aligning with buyside liquidity. This level represents a potential area of significant resistance, offering a favorable profit potential for the trade. It's important to closely monitor the trade's progress and adjust your stop loss or take profit levels as needed. Consider trailing your stop loss to secure profits as the trade progresses in your favor, while also allowing for potential upside continuation. Please remember that trading carries inherent risks, and this trade idea should be diligently evaluated before making any trading decisions. Conduct your own analysis and consider seeking professional advice when necessary. Wishing you success and profitable trades!
NYSE:ELLong
by TRADING_as_a_BUSINESS
A bad quarter but solid fundementals Estee Lauder produced another disappointing result for the quarter – organic net sales shrank 8% while net sales (incl. FX) decreased 12%. EPS came in at 0.43c. China is given as the reason for the company’s subpar results, but delving into the results deeper it looks to be actually Europe, The Middle East and Africa which are showing weakness – net sales fell 24%. It’s a pretty bad result, and management should be starting to question their strategy in Europe — we think it is partially a wider reflection of actual economic weakness in the Eurozone driven by sticky inflation, but we don’t think that is a good enough explanation on management’s part: how will they get back to growth? We still like the company — over time it has compounded earnings extremely well and typically runs at ~18% operating margins, and its stable of premium products like La Mer and Tom Ford afford it strong pricing power. Yet this was not a good quarter. Expecting to under-perform rest of year. Upside +$250 downside -$180. Read more at: www.tradingview.com
NYSE:EL
by BlackBull_Markets
Estes Lauder ($EL) LongLooking long into earnings via call debit spreads or put credit spreads. The 5/19 240P had some action Friday; traded 985x 5.80ish a contract, looked like a roll up from the 220's, same expiration more juicy premium $$; break even/if assigned, long at HKEX:234 , or prior support level. Daily chart with inverse head and shoulders setup. Goldman wrote a piece on 4/18 that included EL put underwriting on a six month put sell (Oct 240P), based on support levels for EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales and P/FCF.
NYSE:ELLong
by airborne99
1
Should I stay or should I go?Three factors for good trade management Knowing when to make your move is key to being a successful and profitable trader. Here are three things you need to handle to keep on track: 1. Know the probability of the trade Make sure you know whether your trade is low or high probability and whether it’s against the trend or with it. If a trader goes long in a short market it’s a low-probability trade so more than likely it is going to end up in a losing trade. If you have a high-probability trade that failed, the market likely wants to change direction. If you have a high-probability trade that you don’t make a lot of points on, it means the market is slowing down or reversing. Sometimes low-probability trades also bring in points. Lower probability trades are against the prevailing trend, so taking a trade to the opposite side becomes preferable and may end up being a high-probability trade. That is because the trends start to change from the lower time frames to the higher timeframes. But you have to keep an eye on the higher ones especially as it might be a retracement on a higher-level timeframe (typically a 5 or 15 minute timeframe). 2. Know your rules for risk Be very clear how much money you want to allocate to a trade. Is your rule that you only ever risk half a percent per position or a maximum of 6% of your portfolio on any one trade? Having this clear boundary means that if you lose a few percent it doesn’t make a material difference to your account, your mindset and your wellbeing. Remember that your risk management will improve over time. Never get put off by the occasional trade that goes against you. If it doesn’t work out, look at your trading plan and see where there is something that could be changed. 3. Practice your strategy and approach Believe in your system and stick to it and your trading plan strictly, even if it looks like the market is going against you. Of course not all trades will be successful - with any business you have profits and losses. As long as the profits are more than the losses it’s ok. It’s about practice too, which includes practicing the skill of not doing anything for a few hours until you see a setup that meets your criteria. You never want to be making involuntary or emotional moves.
NYSE:ELEducation
by Trade-to-Win_from_Tradeguider
Ways to improve your chart reading Part 1 – VolumeIt is essential to look at volume when analyzing the charts. Volume equates to activity: it is either the number of contracts placed to the market during the duration of the bar (in the case of exchange volume ) or the number of price changes during the duration of the bar (in the case of tick volume) It shows when and how the professionals (or as they are called in Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis, the smart money) are acting. If the volume is relatively big, the smart money is buying or selling. Low volume means they are not interested. So volume is one of the tools that not only helps us to understand what is happening on the chart, but also helps traders avoid serious mistakes in determining the further direction of the price movement. Take a look at the Estee Lauder Companies, Inc (NYSE:EL) stock as an example. This stock was in a down trend since August 2022. On October 20th 2022 we saw the first significant increase in volume on a down bar (the bar with its close price lower than the close price of the previous bar) followed by another price bar with big volume on the 24th of October and then by the huge volume spike on November 2nd. Professionals were active on those bars and they were buying! The final confirmation that the stock is ready to move higher came on November 9th when after a few bars of sideways movement a down bar appeared on very low volume. This indicates the absence of professional interest in lower prices. Please note that on this day the trend of the instrument did not change to the up side yet and many traders still expected the down trend to restore. While we are focusing on high-volume bars here, the example above also shows how low volume, when it appears at specific areas of the chart, can provide a lot of useful information too. To be continued.
NYSE:ELLong
by Trade-to-Win_from_Tradeguider
EL daily - rising wedge could be broken downTHE CONSISTENT TRADES analyze EL as a bearish /weak fundamental stock and therefore would be traded only in a short position. EL is in a rising wedge for some time and did find resistance in this area which was supported in April 2022 and then several times the resistance in the rest of the year. A breakdown from a bearish pattern would trigger a short position. Volume is increasing on the red day which is bearish. However, the price is above all major MA which is bullish. RSI has strong and powerful bearish and negative divergences. MACD has also negative divergences and doesn't confirm price action. Overall: EL is hovering at this likely due to the strong and powerful move on SPY and other indices. However, with a possible down leg on SPY EL could get rejected harder from this area of resistance and drop hard. Drop below the red dotted line would trigger a sell signal. However please have in mind report will be at the end of the week therefore do not trade over the report.
NYSE:EL
by Consistent_Trades
EL daily - likely drop after wedge breakdownEL is weak/bearish fundamental stock therefore would be traded only on the short side. EL daily - is in rising wedge formation which is one the most bearish pattern. At the moment the price is basing above all major MA which is bullish with decreasing volume. On the other side, the price is at the resistance block which is more bearish than bullish. RSI is oversold and it is due to cool down what could be bearish for the stock price. MACD histogram is ticking lower which is more bearish than bullish. Overall: daily close below the blue dotted line would trigger a short position. Also, a strong move throughout the day with a big volume would trigger a short position too with a stop loss above the last 6 days' high.
NYSE:EL
by Consistent_Trades
EL - Strong Price ActionEL formed a bullish divergence on the monthly chart after capitulating on 3 Nov. It then began a "recovery" where there were several attempts to break a resistence zone (228 - 231.5), and finally breaking above on 18 Nov. Alas this proved to be a fake break as it went back below the neckline, eventually finding support only at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of it's recent AB swing. The last 3 candles then showed a decisively bullish momentum in it's "recovery" : a huge bullish candle (30 Nov) on high volume that propelled it above the neckline again followed by small inside day near the previous candle high, and then another strong candle (last Friday) that did a quick retest and strong rebound from the neckline. Clearly it's momentum is bullish now although it could hit into short term resistence when reaches the 200 day moving average in the coming days. Trail stops up according to your trading pesonality (20 or 50day MA, last pivot low, fib retracement levels, trendline support etc). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:ELLong
by Juliac
Further drops on Estee Lauder. ELWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
NYSE:ELShort
by Rykin_Capital