1FB trade ideas
** META Price Action Review ** Going over META price action looking for the clues the market is leaving us. what we did yesterday doesnt count anymore. what are we doing today? whats our plan? where is our action Areas? these are the ?'s we need to focus on.
📈 Trading Analysis - Meta (Months Chart): V Bottom Pattern Hello traders, I hope you had a great weekend.
Today, let's focus on Meta as a compelling price action reversal pattern, the V-bottom, has emerged. Upon analyzing the monthly chart, it's evident that a V-bottom pattern has developed, suggesting a potential price reversal. The price has successfully broken above the breakout point at 383.72.
For those with an appetite for aggressive trading, entering the market during trendline breakouts at the base of the V-bottom pattern is an option. However, it's important to note that straightforward trendline breakouts have a success rate of only 52%.
Now, if the price manages to sustain itself at the 38% level, specifically at 496.79, there is a possibility of a retracement back to the breakout point. While not guaranteed, such a retracement could offer a potential long entry opportunity. With a success rate of more than half, the price might target the 62% level at 567.95 and the 79% level at 617.20, sooner or later.
META Technical Analysis and Trade Idea#META has experienced a remarkable bullish surge. However, the 1D timeframe indicates potential weakness as we see the trend ranging sidweays creating lower highs. We are considering a possible retracement towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone potentiall trading through the gap evidenced on the chart. This area typically attracts increased liquidity due to sell stops, potentially encouraging long positions from institutional traders.
Trading Considerations Meta Platforms:
Counter-Trend Short: Explore a short entry near the current price level, strategically placing a stop-loss above the recent highs. Maintain a 1:1 risk-reward ratio for this trade.
Fibonacci Buy: Target a potential buy opportunity close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This aligns with the possible accumulation of long positions by larger market players. Utilize a stop-loss below the recent swing low, and define target levels as shown on the screenshot.
Disclaimer: This analysis offers my personal market interpretation for educational purposes and should not be considered direct financial advice. Always prioritize your own independent research and thorough risk assessment before making any trading decisions.
Still room to run to 420 (at least)META target by end of Feb 2024 is 420.
3 most likely paths to target:
1) 1pt solid black arrow = earnings pop to 405-413 and then continue to 420 by 2/7/2024
2) 2pt (thick) solid black arrow = earnings pop and then run to 420 by 2/21 (more conservative)
3) 2pt (thick) grey arrow = drop to 373-378 after earnings which would get bought up fast and then run to 420 by end of Feb. (would be great opportunity to enter long).
Not playing this for earnings but it should be a good indicator for what market will do mid-term. My expectation is SPY will continue higher to 500+, and the earnings today 2/1 will be a catalyst for this.
I think at least 2 of 3 of the big tech earnings will be bullish todaym maybe all 3:
META to 420
AMZN to 164
AAPL to 198
I took a 10EMA trade on $META long.I was looking at the premarket to know where my target would be, on the closeup of the 3 minute chart i got it right above the bear candle closing above the 10ema. and waited for the stock to pull up higher to raise my stop level.
META Is it finally time to correct?Meta Platforms (META) has been among the biggest winners in 2023 and of course is having a great start to 2024 as well. Those who follow us know that we have been big bulls on META even right on its 2022 bottom (see charts below), when most of the market had lost faith in the company's operations, business model and its ability to generate profit.
We even mapped to perfections its V-shaped recovery to new All Time Highs (ATH)
As the company had one of its best 1W candles in history last week following the dividends announcement, we are starting to consider a short/ medium-term pull-back for the stock. This is also justified by historic price action. Since the current large Megaphone pattern started in mid 2018, META has corrected to or below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level within a -16.00% to -19.77% decline range, 5 times. On all cases except for the initial 2023 recovery, the 1W RSI was overbought above the 70.00 mark. Right now the 1W RSI is on its most overbought state in history.
As a result, we have a growing belief that it is time for the social media giant to start correcting again. A minimum of -16.00% decline will deliver a $410.00 Target level for META, just below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Note that during all such declines, the 1W MA5 (blue trend-line) provided support, closing all candles above it.
Do you think it is time for a 4 - 6 week correction?
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Meta: Reached the Destination 📍✅Meta has reached our (now greyed our) Zone and started a pullback. We primarily expect the magenta-colored wave (iii) have already reached its high. Accordingly, we currently see the stock in a correction of the same-colored wave (iv), which should ideally push the price back towards the round $400 mark. According to our alternative scenario (38%), it would possible that the stock immentily rises. However, this scenario would merely shift the top of the wave alt. (iii) in magenta, which is why we expect another countermovement to the south afterwards before we can move on to the final stage of the green wave (1). As soon as the high of wave (1) in green could is set, we are preparing for a more extensive wave (2) correction.
Meta Platforms Long Term Bullish Trend - Elliott Wave AnalysisMeta Platforms Elliott Wave Analysis Wave 3 of (3) of Primary 3).
The Lines on the chart are part of the TradingLevels indicator which uses Fibonacci as price ratio.
Source Peter Mathers tradinglounge
META Update: Count points much higherThere's a lot to unpack in this post. We'll start with the obvious and that price raised much higher than I anticipated. Rather it be the announcement of dividends or something else I'm not sure. The price action we got before the earnings released appeared corrective in nature which pointed lower. Given the new action we've received I've spent a decent amount of time looking at this thing from as many different angles as possible.
The first thing I want to point out is how high MACD went. This easily confirms we are in fact in our wave III. On the larger count, the strength of this move up signals we should be headed towards the 0.786 fib @ $996.55 to complete ((1)) of III. Seem crazy? Yea, it does to me too. As I have said in the past, though, I don't make the rules I just follow them. This is the standard fib one should expect an extended wave 1 to end no matter the degree.
On the chart I have a few boxes. We're currently in the target box for wave v of 3 which could rise as high as $510.54 and remain standard. I'm not saying it will, just that I don't expect it to move above that without first retracing to the next box with the wave 4 label. Should it move above the 1.382 @ $510.54 that means it is beyond standard fib levels and structure alone would have to guide us to the top of that wave. Given how META gained almost $100 in less than 24 hours, I suspect traders will be looking to take profits. On the 4HR chart, MACD just flashed a sell signal so ideally, we should be headed down for 4 next. I'm not some magician with a magic 8 ball that can see the future though, so I can't say for certain. When we get some more price action, I will update y'all on the expected path we're on.
I am shorting META - Trade idea Feb 3 2024META price has increased dramatically during yesterday's trading session.
META has published positive earnings and announced that they will pay dividends in the future.
That's it for the good fundamental news.
As a technical trader, I like looking at price action and trading activity.
I noticed that retail activity has increased more than 300% yesterday, retails investors/gamblers FOMO-ed to buy the stock yesterday.
For that reason (betting against the crowd) + the potential false breakout of the multi-weeks channel + the crazy price increase that occurred in the past year and a half (90 to 480 USD), I have opened a short position via options with expiration June (to be safe).
I think the price will retest the 400/410 region at least by June.
META- Undervalued & Oversold. Market Cap - 426 Billion
META has been on a 9 year bull run, in that period, it has firmly cemented itself as a digital marketing juggernaut.
When it reached its all time high of $384.33 back in September 2021, it had an enormous market cap of 1.064 trillion dollars.
At the time, it was only the fifth U.S. company to hit the milestone , joining Apple , Microsoft , Amazon and Google-parent company Alphabet .
However the last 12 months have been somewhat brutal for Zuckerberg & co, the share price has dropped a staggering 60% to date,
making this the biggest correction Meta has ever endured.
Economic uncertainty, regulatory pressure and more recently, a first ever earnings miss, investors were quick to hit the panic button & add to the selling pressure.
In February, Meta went down in history for the biggest one-day crash in the stock market. The company’s stock lost about $230 billion in market value in a single day.
Meta revenue slipped to $28.8 billion in the second quarter, missing the $28.9 billion analyst estimate. Gross profit was $23.6 billion, down 0.5% from the equivalent quarter last year.
In April, Apple introduced a change to its privacy policy that requires apps to ask users if they want to be tracked, this made META's ad selling business less affective, with only a reported 16% of users agreeing to be tracked.
The privacy crackdown is set to cost Meta at least $10 billion in lost sales in 2022 alone.
As a result of the data drought, Meta shifted their ad spending to Google because its flagship search-ad business relies on customer intent—users’ search terms immediately reveal what they are interested in—rather than data collected from app and web tracking.
Google , the world’s largest digital-ad company by revenue, generated its highest sales growth in more than a decade in the third quarter.
The sensational rise of short-video sharing app TikTok, has seen many users defect with approximately 1.4 billion monthly active users now on the popular platform.
This is quickly approaching Instagram, which has approximately 2 billion monthly active users.
This year, TikTok is on track to triple worldwide ad revenues, to $11.6bn, more than the $10.44bn for Snapchat and Twitter combined.
This forced META to focus more on short-videos in the form of "Reels". Reels recently reached $1 billion in annualized revenue for the first time, Reels now has a higher revenue run rate than Facebook /Instagram Stories at identical times post-launch.
Mark Zuckerberg is betting his company’s future on the metaverse — a virtual space in which people interact with each other using avatars and developing AR / VR technology.
He said that he plans to invest heavily in his company’s metaverse ambitions & that will mean losing significant amounts of money on the project in the next three to five years.
This massive shift has shaken up already nervous investors, however should one of its Reality Labs products change the world, it would be the jolt this company needs to continue funding its ambitions.
The company once suffered a colossal 19% drop in 2018 after posting disappointing revenue and user figures for the second quarter of that year, however it bounced back before going on to make all time highs.
Facebook has 2.74 billion monthly active users, No other platform offers this kind of reach.
Facebook is the world’s third-most visited website- outranked only by Google and YouTube. It’s also the top Google search query.
Facebook is the second-most downloaded free app in the App Store.
63% of the U.S. population over age 12 uses Facebook .
32.4% of Facebook’s audience is aged 25-34.
Seniors are the fastest-growing group of Facebook users. More than 37% of people born in 1945 or earlier are on Facebook , up from 26% a year earlier.
74% of high-income earners use Facebook For those earning $75,000 or more, Facebook is the preferred social network.
Facebook is also the most popular social network (besides YouTube) for college graduates, with 74% of them using the platform. LinkedIn again comes second with this group, at 51%.
Facebook users spend 34 minutes per day using the platform.
36% of people get news from Facebook .
79.9% of Facebook users only access the platform on a mobile device.
An average Facebook user clicks on 12 ads per month.
Facebook has an advertising audience of 2.14 billion.
Meta's balance sheet includes $40 billion in cash, equivalents and short term investments, with $16 billion in total debt (although some of this may include operating liabilities).
The firm's free cash flow generation is very strong, with $8.5 billion generated in the quarter, up 8.9% year over year.
$5 billion worth of stock was approved for purchase in the second quarter. In addition, the company authorized another $24.32 billion for stock repurchases.
Meta further reduced its full-year operating expense during its latest earnings update. Its current operating expense guidance sits at $85.0-$87.0 billion for 2022
From a TA point of view, there are a number of reasons to be bullish which include-
- A very strong oversold signal (not shown due to limitations using invite-only scripts on public ideas)
- 9 + 5 oscillators recently printing divergence -look left,
- RSI / MFI / Stochastic are all oversold & sit @ record lows,
- Pulling a fib from the 2018 lows, we could see that price currently sits @ the 0.786 Fibonacci level,
- Decreasing selling volume,
- Support trendline being tested.
Should the 0.786 / support trendline not hold, long-term bulls should look for buys @ 2018/2020 lows.
Can price drop further? Sure! Timing tops or bottoms is not my thing.
Will Zuckerberg's metaverse gamble pay off? Only time will tell.
As it stands, Meta remains in a strong position with enormous reach, should the massive investment in metaverse pay off, there is no doubt that Meta will go on to make new highs.
Speculative Setup, DYOR. Strictly a long term play. Allow 24-72 Months for this idea.
Meta - A great example of Elliott wave
Our target for Meta is $420 by August.One would be able to see great volatility in its stock price and make significant profits by buying puts.
Impulse Wave (Downward Move): The first phase is an impulse wave to the downside. This could be triggered by various factors, such as negative news about the company, poor financial performance, or a broader market downturn. During this phase, the stock price might experience a significant decline from $480.
Correction Wave (Upward Move): Following the initial downward impulse, there's typically a corrective wave that retraces a portion of the previous downward move. This correction could result from profit-taking, short-covering, or a temporary shift in sentiment. The stock price may temporarily rise during this phase, but the overall trend remains bearish.
Impulse Wave (Continuation): After the correction, another impulse wave to the downside may occur, leading to a further decline in the stock price. This could be driven by persistent negative factors affecting the company or the market as a whole.
META CUP & HANDLE PATTERN META is trading a cup and handle pattern on its daily chart.
The price is trading above the Breakout: 236.86.
ST: 219.96
62%: 328.86
79%: 353.24
127%: 425.89
162%: 477.46
William J. 0’Neil developed and popularized in the 1980s the
Cup and Handle pattern.
Cup and Handle patterns are continuation patterns, and they usually form in bullish trends.
They also form in all markets and in all time-frames.
The “Cup” formation is developed as consolidation phase during price rallies from the round bottom formation over multiple weeks to months. The “Handle” part forms due to a price correction after “Cup" formation and before a clear breakout to the upside.
Cup and Handle pattern structure show the momentum pause after reaching a new high in a U-Shape form, followed by another attempt to breakout. When this breakout from the rim of the cup fails it starts to fall back to build the 'Handle' structure. Usually, the handle structures are small, and the handle depth should not exceed more than 50% of cup depth.
Entries
When the pattern breaks out above the rim of the cup, a long trade is entered above the high of the breakout bar.
Targets: 62-79%, 127-162% Cup height
Stop
A stop should be placed
below the middle of the
handle level.
META: THE GREAT RISE BEFORE 50% RETRACEMENTHi guys, after Meta's big announcement (I mean its dividend) I'm watching for something similar to take profit and rebuild new long position.
Why? Easy.
I'm learning that avoiding period of chopping is one of the rules to leverage gains, but to do this u must to have another asset to buy, so...
Let's see how will play this year for tech stock.
META SELL SELL SELL++++Gap fill imminent, this market is nuts over $200b added to market cap on BS numbers. How many people IO know that have 2, 3, 5, or 7 accounts many of their accounts are downright FAKE!! This is way overbought and overdone. A dividend lol
META Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on META:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 395usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $19.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
#META This is my view 🤔I expect that the stock has reached the bottom, and we will see the beginning of a rise and a recovery from these areas
The chart is on the 6-month frame
I expect that the coming years we will see a wonderful growth of the company
Of course, this is not investment advice. This is just an idea I wanted to share with you
Please support the idea by pressing the like button and writing your opinion in the comment box
Good luck 🌹
Can META break the Resistance Line? Weekly chart, META is trading in a rising rectangle, and the MACD indicator went negative. This signals a possibility for correction.
Below the support line (RED), the next strong support is 244 - 242
The other direction, after crossing the resistance line (BLUE), the near target will be 430
We are now at an extreme in meta based on BB bands I am now in a 20 % net short in dec 480 puts filled at 53.50 I feel we are seeing the Bubble phase Risk in this trade is high But I am at a 20 % position
Meta TradeBeen in a bull trend for some time, and doesn't look like a situation where you want to sell. Earnings coming out, but they have been only positive in the recent past so a go with the flow type of trade . In a bull trend like this, you don't want to go against it.
