1FDO trade ideas
Sell volatility on the spike post numbers.POOR FUNDAMENTALS CONFIRMED
Macy's just released disappointing sales figures and guidance.
Announcing 68 store closures and the layoff of 10,000 employees.
The stock is indicated 10% down to 32.20.
Consensus is already quite down-beat on the story, and likely to become even more so.
Expect downgrades on the back of the news.
VOLATILITY PICKUP EXPECTED
The negative trend has been playing out and at the current pre-market price the stock is already down 30% from the top. It is likely to be oversold at the open and the volatility should soar.
SELL OTM SHORT-DATED PUTS
The 10% OTM puts maturing 20 Jan 2017 were paying 14.9% per annum at the close of yesterday.
At the open, similar options should pay even more dearly for investors willing to take the risk.
In the worst-case scenario, get long the stock 40% below the recent top.
Sell M 20jan17 10% OTM ($29) puts and expect >15% annualized - Will confirm pricing after the open.
10-mon falling channel suggests further range-bound price actionM $36.51 – 10-month falling channel suggests further range-bound price action
M made a new-year low at 29.94 (May 23, 2016) before consolidating. The level could hold medium-term since it is near the 61.8% key retracement of the 2009-2015 (5.07/73.61) upswing. Currently, M is ranging below the 200 day moving average (at 37.68) within a 10-month falling channel. If the 37.68/38.48 resistance zone caps the recovery, the stock will likely retest the 34.31 support.
However, a decisive upside break above the 38.48 resistance and then 40.98 (August 16, 2016 prior lower high) would confirm channel breakout and turn the structure bullish. The upside target then will be 45.50 (March 18, 2016 YTD high).
Outlook:
Daily: neutral
Weekly: neutral
Monthly: neutral
Short on Macys / Corto en MacysPodemos ver una zona de consolidación del precio en la que se forma un patrón triangular. El precio rompió el triángulo por la parte inferior y esperamos una vela de confirmación. Las bandas de Bollinger indican un aumento de la volatilidad en ese momento, por lo que entraremos en corto, buscando 0.41 puntos en el precio y estableciendo un ratio de ganancias y pérdidas de 2.5
M: Macy's offering a great short into earningsWe can enter shorts aiming to capture the anticipated sharp decline into earnings.
Macy's reports one day before the 'Time at mode' downtrend signal here expires.
The two targets seem quite realistic in my opinion, might be a home run trade, don't miss it!
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Macys Head and Shoulder After beating the estimates for loss this quarter Macys broke above the neckline on a reverse Head and Shoulder. The head and shoulder is a pattern that indicates a strong reversal. The volume of trades that accompanied the overall H&S shape confirmed the break out. I see a rise to a recent level of resistance around $50. This would also be a %17 rise which is the depth of the H&S.
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