1GME trade ideas
GME longEntry 20.86
Stop 17.5
Target 40
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
BuyToOpen Apr Call spread C25/40 ( Buy 2025_04_17 C25, sell 2025_04_17 C40 )
Limit 1.73 (C25 Delta=0.52)
GME Approaching Key Support: Will Buyers Step In?In my analysis of GME, I’ve identified a green support zone that could be crucial for the next price movement. If the price returns to this level, we might see a rebound as buyers could be attracted to this key area. This support has been significant in the past, and if it holds, it could trigger renewed bullish momentum. Keep an eye on this zone for a potential buying opportunity when the price revisits it.
MOASS: Match LightingOk lets recap our main targets and ideas for MOASS:
Target Price: 1800-2400 w/ major potential for pockets of trades to execute at much higher
levels
Duration: Oct 2024 - July 2025 w/ a major move to new all time highs taking place between Oct and Feb
Key Date: Oct 21st 2024 should see volume and short volume begin to increase
VWAPs are the key and price will be supported by VWAP all the way to MOASS conclusion
What now?
The main data point that we are watching like a hawk is SHORT VOLUME
Increasing short volume is the MAIN indicator that will signal both the START and END of MOASS
When you see short volume RAPIDLY INCREASING during MOASS it means that they have lost control of price and are desperately trying to short it down
You will see that DECREASING short volume will always signal a current or imminent decrease in buying pressure..although because of the nature of a squeeze that may not always translate into a decline in price
So now we wait....
M O A S S
MOASS: How Will We Know Its OverSo far in our coverage of GME we have told you how high we think price will go during MOASS and also what technical triggers we think will lead to take off
We have also told you, from a timing perspective, when we think MOASS will kick into high gear (Oct 21st)
What we havent told you is how to know when MOASS is over
The short answer is: A break below VWAP
As we told you last week VWAP is a key data point that Institutions/Hedge Funds use to identify ideal entries/exits
Its also a key data point used to define acceptable risk (i.e. XYZ standard deviations from VWAP things break)
Like the Jan 21 squeeze this one will most likely be triggered by a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp which will lead to forced buy-ins and extreme delta hedging
In a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp environment VWAP is THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA POINT TO SHORTS
As long as price is ABOVE VWAP its not advantageous for them to close their positions...
And that is why your trigger to know that MOASS may be winding down is that first dip BELOW VWAP after price explodes
M O A S S
GME breakout in 15 trading days (TV DELETED OG IDEA TODAY!!!)I posted my analysis and chart with Gamma peaks and updated it every few days, today I saw I had several more boosts to the idea so I was going to update it and.... its just gone, totally deleted. Ill post this again, Thanks for the support and good luck!!!
MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
$GME - October 1-15If anything was going to happen it was gonna happen and it didn't.
I did notice this brilliant little thing though. Could mean we're having another May-Like run.
imgur.com
The timeline for this is October 1-15, potentially may get pushed to 22-31 Oct due to unknown factors or events around those times like another big scam company announced by Hiddenburg conveniently coming out when the data shows a run or something about Carl Icahn again.
It does look nice though. I'll be monitoring its progress and see if it continues to be similar to the May run. If it does, the buy time would be 26-30 Sept. Will let you know as i have a few loans to pay off now and can't join these ones so they're all yours to destroy by inversing this post.
Till then, GME looks like it'll be doing the usual boring stuff like going sideways, dumping on earnings, re-pumping the next day back to normal and then dropping slowly over time again to an even lower price point as people get comfortable selling their CC's and then covering them around the timeline i mentioned whilst getting ready to sell CC's at the new GME top thus cutting any big runs short.
The good runs are the runs none of you know about, because that way no one's expecting and thus no one has their fingers ready on the CC selling button the moment they see a 10cent peak. So technically i'm the run destroyer. A watched pot never boils over.
$GME - Ready to goDespite the 20 million share offer, they still haven't returned the millions of shares that they've borrowed recently. The slightest incident that requires them to have more shares (Like having to cover FTDs) may send it sky high. I shall keep an eye out for another ATM offer published during premarket. If it doesn't happen, then I think it's a go.
Not advice, only my opinion
MOASS: October= Light FuseWe are continuing our call that MOASS is imminently on the horizon
Note the 0.618 and the 1 fib on the time axis of the chart
From a fib time perspective between those levels you tend to see explosive volatility ending in positive movement in the direction of the prevailing trend
We are predicting near term strength in the broad market as well which should help push GME along
We also think that by the end of the year the broad market will begin a massive trek lower which will put significant pressure on margin levels
This coupled with the fact that per recent reports Banks are carrying the largest levels EVER of unrealized losses on securities, should be the core ingredients that fuel shorts unwinding and MOASS commencing
Thats our story and we are sticking to it lol
Good Trading To All!
M O A S S
MOASSTLDR: MOASS is about to kick into high gear and Elliott Wave has given us some solid targets from a price and time perspective
MOASS Target Price: $1800-$2400..with potential for us to see pockets of trades fill at even higher levels (remember if price overshoots a target we just look to the next fib)
Timeframe to complete: End of Jan 2025 (pay attention to the fibs on the time axis)
It is time
Our patience is about to be rewarded
Friday saw, what we think is the fuse lighting (hint hint) for what we will look back later and call: MOASS
We have been pounding the table saying that GME is bullish
Elliott Wave Theory has done a great job tracking general price movements
Again, if you are judging Elliott Wave Theorys efficacy by its exactness then you have the wrong expectation
As we have explained many times Elliott Wave gives you IDEALIZED targets but price can and will overshoot/undershoot those targets...and we expect that to happen
Which is why we say EVERY FIB that we show on the chart is important because when overshoots/undershoots happen we just look to the next Fib as our target...and we do this until the price structure changes and invalidates our count
Thats why we constantly talk about PRICE STRUCTURE
Ultimately, price structure, too us, means is the overall structure Bullish (impulsive) or Bearish (corrective)
So with that said this chart lays out exactly how high we think this gets and also how long it might take
Pay close attention to EVERY FIB on the PRICE and the TIME axis...we expect price to react significantly to every one
Oh for the last time...for those that think price could never reach the prices we project ( aka at those prices GME would be XXXXXXXXXXXX Market cap blah blah) we are NOT saying that price will be SUSTAINED at those levels...we are saying price will TEMPORARILY reach those levels..
Remember we are calling targets for a SHORT SQUEEZE here..not a FUNDAMENTAL price target
M O A S S
GME- 20%+ Move IncomingNow that we are finally past earnings and the, customary for GME, earnings dip, price can finally get moving
The FED and surrounding conversation will provide the volatility we need
We are predicting a 20%+ move back to the 25 level (should see that move this week)
After that the 28-30 level will be the next target and subsequent resistance zone
From there THINGS GET EXTREMELY SPICY as the 38-40 level is extremely dangerous for Shorts in our estimation
We will continue to track the elliott wave counts at a micro level but as you see from the higher level charts we continue to see GME as EXTREMELY BULLISH
G A M E O N
GameStop ($GME) Faces Challenges as Stock Plummets 14.65% Shares of GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ), the once high-flying meme stock, plunged nearly 15% in premarket trading on Wednesday. This dramatic drop came after the video game retailer reported a steep 31% decline in quarterly revenue, overshadowing its swing to profitability. As GameStop grapples with the evolving gaming landscape and a strategic overhaul, investors are left questioning the company's ability to stage a meaningful comeback.
Revenue Decline Overshadows Profitability
GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) has been feverishly restructuring, aiming to revive its business by closing underperforming stores and focusing on value-added products to enhance sales. However, the latest quarterly results paint a grim picture. Despite achieving a net profit, the company's revenue plummeted by 31%, a decline that raises concerns about its long-term growth prospects.
The company announced plans to sell up to 20 million shares to fund future acquisitions, marking another strategic pivot. This move follows GameStop's earlier capital raises totaling over $3 billion, which were driven by wild stock price swings fueled by retail investors and prominent traders like Keith Gill, known as "Roaring Kitty." However, the market's reaction was far from favorable, as shares slid further after Gill's return to social media failed to ignite the same enthusiasm seen in 2021.
The declining sales reflect the broader trend of consumers moving away from physical game discs toward digital downloads and streaming services. This shift has heavily impacted GameStop’s core business, pushing the company to diversify its offerings. Despite these efforts, the retailer’s ability to stabilize its revenue remains uncertain.
Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Looms
GameStop's technical outlook is equally concerning. Since early June, NYSE:GME stock has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with price oscillations tightening as bulls and bears vie for control. After a brief three-day rally, the stock was rejected at the triangle’s upper trendline, highlighting market uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Wednesday’s sharp drop could signal a potential breakdown below the triangle’s lower trendline, opening the door to further downside. Key levels to watch include:
1. $18.50: This area represents a potential support level near the 200-day moving average (MA) and past peaks and troughs. Holding this level is crucial; failure to do so may lead to further declines.
2. $15.25: If $18.50 fails to hold, the next critical support is at $15.25, where the stock has seen periods of consolidation earlier this year. This level may serve as an entry point for value-seeking investors.
3. $13.25: A breakdown to this level would represent a 43% drop from Tuesday’s close, marking a critical support zone where buying interest could re-emerge based on historical lows.
Despite the bearish setup, there remains the potential for a meme-fueled rally driven by retail investor enthusiasm. A key bullish target would be the $30.50 area, where traders might look to capitalize on past gaps and resistance levels, especially during periods of heightened volatility.
The Road Ahead: A Cautious Outlook
As GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) continues its transformation, investors should remain cautious. The company's ability to stabilize revenue and navigate the shift towards digital gaming will be paramount to its recovery. While the stock’s RSI currently sits near oversold territory at 47.61, indicating some potential for a bounce, the broader technical picture suggests a challenging path forward.
Investors should closely monitor the key support and resistance levels highlighted above, as well as any further developments from GameStop’s management regarding its strategic initiatives. With market sentiment fragile and the stock under pressure, GameStop’s next moves could prove pivotal in determining whether it can reclaim its status as a meme stock legend or continue its downward spiral.
Stay tuned, as GME's journey is far from over—and volatility is almost guaranteed.
GME price pattern for recent ATM offering based on prior ATMsAfter having a look at how GME performed during the last three ATM offerings (June '21, May '24, June '24) I expect something like the above chart for the current ATM offering.
After opening at a lower price than the previous closing price, GME tends to pump a bit (something like 5-15%) and forms a pretty linear selling off until the ATM is done.
The recent ATM offering sells 20m shares on the open market, the last ones were: June '21 (20m), May '24 (40m), June '24 (75m). Shares sold were roughly 10-13% of daily trading volume. The recent trading volume was not that high, so I expect the ATM offering to be complete ideally at Friday, realistically ~Tuesday next week. GME should bottom then.
Bullish on macro though.