Micro-tragedy RecapToday was nuts at the MicroStrategy part of town. Let's just debrief the madness.
1MSTR trade ideas
MICROSTRATEGY’S COMEBACK: HOW BITCOIN RESCUED A TECH GIANT Did you know? NASDAQ:MSTR was once the darling of the 90s tech boom, but spent TWO DECADES in decline after the bubble burst. 📉
That all changed when @saylor made the boldest bet in corporate history—he turned to Bitcoin. 💡 By selling equity, he fueled NASDAQ:MSTR 's massive BTC acquisition, and now? The stock has charged back towards its all-time highs after two decades. 📈
Critics called it reckless, but Saylor's vision was clear: Bitcoin would save the company. Now, he's vindicated—and MicroStrategy is thriving again
This is the power of conviction and bold moves in the face of doubt. 😤💯
The future will be built on decentralized technology and there is nothing better than BTC & DOGE 🧡 🚀
$MSTR #Spicy #Broadening Formation PT; $666 MSTR is a MONSTAR lately AAAANNNNDDDD a LOT of sketch occurred today.
7am; CEO says "We're gonna need a bigger ship"
930am: Price is Gapping up 10%+ AGAIN
930ish: Citadel Announces Short
403pm: CEO announces NASDAQ:MSTR Completes $3 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029 at 0% Coupon and 55% Conversion Premium
PS: The SEC Chair announced he will be resigning in a couple months...
"Shakeouts B4 Breakouts" - Prophecies
MSTR FOR NOVMBER 2024Hello my friends,
As you can see in the chart, we have two possibilities.
The first one is to go directly into buying.
But if this possibility fails, the second possibility will be highly successful.
Can MicroStrategy really go higher?Huge resistance at this level!
Can MSTR continue this explosion in price?
1-2-1-2 $mstr Microstrategy Playing outFixed wave targets for later waves vs. prior post.
Self-explanatory - Elliot Wave, Nested 1-2's for MSTR - Time isn't accounted for in future waves... but assume through bitcoin cycle late into next year
Chart annotation shows bullish but we are in Wave 4 to at least 280, as low as 100 but given the bullishness of the market expect between 180-280 before next move up... lower she goes pulls end targets lower... analysis assumed .236 - .38 retracements for remaining 4's and 5's.
Wave 5 targets were .68 of wave 3... The deeper the wave 4's the lower the 5 targets will be
MSTR - BUYProbability for MSTR Returning to $453:
in the current environment, MSTR can return to its previous highs if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory and macro conditions remain favorable. However, the stock remains highly speculative, and traders should watch Bitcoin closely as the primary driver.
1-2 Weeks: ~50% — Needs Bitcoin above $40k. Resistance likely.
1-3 Months: ~70% — Bitcoin rally continuation and institutional interest help.
6-12 Months: ~80% — Long-term crypto bullishness increases chances.
MSTR Alert: Trend Reversal Sparks October Rally!The NASDAQ:MSTR chart has just triggered a weekly signal, marking the first time we’ve seen a reversal signal alongside a fresh trend signal right at the range lows.
The trend appears healthy, and if October mirrors the previous months, I expect a rise in the crypto markets. While I'm not overly optimistic about Bitcoin's price movements just yet, I’ll be satisfied as long as it finishes the month positively.
A valid reclaim of $150 would lend significant strength to the uptrend.
Invalidation is set at $119, so manage your risk wisely.
For take-profit areas, consider $270 and $540 once the upward movement begins.
Keep in mind that ETF flows have been zero or negative, while NASDAQ:MSTR has been purchasing an average of $70M in BTC daily over the past week. MicroStrategy typically buys during bear markets or significant retracements. The key thing to watch now is how the market reacts once this buying subsides.
MSTR eyes on $154: the Decision Zone for next moveMSTR is at a key level that should determine the next move.
Break-and-Retest of zone would be the buy signal to look for.
Rejection and loss of next fib below it would be a sell signal.
$ 152.17 - 154.08 is the exact zone of interest.
$ 175.25 - 178.09 will be the next target above.
$ 110.23 - 113.01 will be the key support below.
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MSTR - Tuesday Nov 12 2024 - Bull Strategy PlayMicroStrategy shares jumped 26% after a $2 billion Bitcoin buy, raising total holdings to over $24 billion. The stock surged 960% since October 2023, hitting a 24-year high as Bitcoin neared $90,000. MicroStrategy has accumulated 279,420 BTC as a hedge against inflation, influencing other companies to adopt similar strategies.
MicrostrategyMicrostrategy touched a new all-time high today. So far, the chart pattern is all consolidation sideways. Now, the bullish phase begins, and I look to the past amplitude of the chart to give me some indication of what is possible, and I apply game theory to get to $10,000 test. It can go higher, but $10,000 is 2/3rds of the way from the “neckline” to the “tech target. It’s a good place to sell.
MSTR / IBIT Comparison and PatternsThe MSTR/IBIT pair looking more and more like it develops patterns. It seems to be showing when Saylor taps the ATM. Will be following this development and if we get around 8.00-8.20 and see a similar drop in performance then I think this thought may have some legs.
What are your thoughts?
Opening (IRA): MSTR 180/210/410/440 Iron Condor... for a 6.03 credit.
Comments: High IV at 95.8%. Here, going delta neutral, 1/10th the price of the underlying for my wing width, and setting up my short option strikes at the 16 delta on both sides.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 6.03
Buying Power Effect: 23.97
ROC at Max: 25.16%
50% Max: 3.02
ROC at 50% Max: 12.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in untested side on side test.
Microstrategy incororated gives brakeout on daily chartNASDAQ:MSTR
Microstrategy incororated gives brakeout on daily chart
Buy near 240
sl 125
target 370
Why MSTR Could Hit $350 by April 2025Why MSTR Could Hit $350 by April 2025
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has positioned itself uniquely in the financial landscape by heavily investing in Bitcoin, making it not just a tech firm but also a significant player in the cryptocurrency space. Here's why MSTR might reach $350 by April 2025:
Bitcoin's Performance and MicroStrategy's Strategy:
Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory, with recent spikes fueled by events like political developments (e.g., Trump's crypto-friendly stance). If Bitcoin continues this trend or even surpasses expectations, MSTR's stock, which acts almost as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, could see substantial gains. Analysts have noted a strong positive correlation between Bitcoin's price and MSTR's stock value, sometimes suggesting a premium on MSTR due to its Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Acquisition:
Recent posts on X have highlighted MicroStrategy's commitment to the biggest Bitcoin buy ever at $42B. This aggressive accumulation could signal to investors that MSTR believes in a significant future value increase for Bitcoin, thereby potentially boosting investor confidence in MSTR shares.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest:
There's growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, which benefits companies like MicroStrategy. For instance, South Korea’s National Pension Service's investment in MSTR indicates a broader acceptance of crypto through established companies. Such moves could lead to increased demand for MSTR stock, pushing its price higher.
Inclusion in Major Indices:
Discussions around MSTR's potential inclusion in major indices like the S&P 500 could significantly boost its stock price. If MSTR becomes eligible for such an index due to its market cap or liquidity, it would attract more institutional investors, driving the price up.
Earnings and Accounting Changes:
With the adoption of new accounting standards allowing for digital assets to be measured at fair value, MSTR could report more favorable earnings. This could lead to a re-rating of the stock as the market recognizes the true value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially pushing the stock towards the $350 mark or beyond.
Bullish Predictions and Analyst Upgrades:
Analysts from various platforms have shown optimism, with some forecasts indicating that MSTR could trade between $175.94 and $310.25 by 2025. While these aren't exact to $350, the sentiment is clear: there's an expectation of significant growth.
Supply Shock from Bitcoin Halving:
The Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the reward for mining new blocks, historically impacts Bitcoin's price positively due to the reduced supply growth rate. If this event leads to a substantial Bitcoin price increase, MSTR's stock should follow suit.
Macro-Economic Environment:
If the global economic environment continues to favor alternative investments like cryptocurrencies, MSTR, with its Bitcoin strategy, stands to benefit. Lower interest rates or inflation fears might drive more capital towards assets like Bitcoin, indirectly benefiting MSTR.
MSTR heads up at $187.88: Golden Genesis a good exit cuz may dipThis is a follow up to my previous chart and entry call (click).
MSTR launched from our "Decision Zone" in previous chart.
Now approaching a major landmark, a Golden Genesis fib.
Scalpers should take profits, Holders should sell some there.
$287.88 is the exact level to watch for TP.
$261.94 is a minor ratio for aggressive SL.
$245.95 is strong ratio for conservative SL.
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Previous Analysis:
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MSTR: Is there any value here?MicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has a current BTC balance of 252,220, with plans released during the October ‘24 earnings call to issue both $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt to finance further BTC purchases through 2026.
The question becomes, is there value here? If the price of MSTR becomes increasingly dependent on the price of BTC, then why not just buy the underlying asset? The latter can likely already be answered. The price is entirely dependent. As noted in the company’s earnings call and outlined in the excerpt from the CoinGeek article below, MSTR’s software business has taken a backseat as the company has completely shifted its focus toward its BTC plan.
“On October 30, MicroStrategy released its Q3 financial report card, revealing a sharp decline in revenue from its (formerly) core business intelligence software business, while expenses and net losses saw significant increases. Software revenue for the three months ending September 30 fell 10.3% year-on-year, while the rising costs of that revenue resulted in a net loss of $18.5 million.”
During the call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor insisted that MSTR is not purely a BTC proxy. Looking at the price performance for the past year, you can see that MSTR has outperformed BTC by a multiple greater than 4. As markets tend to do, this is likely the pricing in of future acquisitions. Unlike ETPs (or people, for that matter), MSTR has placed itself in a unique position, with the ability to utilize the various avenues of capital markets to increase its holdings. While this is fundamentally opportunistic, the increase in shares dilutes existing shareholder ownership, reducing their proportional share of MSTR's overall equity. However, given the long-term potential appreciation of BTC, the value of the underlying asset may offset this dilution, ultimately providing greater returns despite the increase in outstanding shares. This is no different than any other growth-oriented company, albeit Apple, NVIDIA, etc., actually produces something. If the price of the underlying asset goes down, this further decreases the BTC value per share, leading to a potential point of clarity for shareholders asking themselves, “why not just own the underlying asset?”
Looking ahead, I do think MSTR provides a unique opportunity. Inevitably, given the scenario described above, the stock will continue to face elevated volatility (something that the company has noted as a positive). Given future declines in the price of the underlying asset (presumably in 2026 and 2027), this allows MSTR to accumulate more BTC, reducing its cost basis and optimistically allowing investors to enjoy increased volatility to the upside yet again.
THE FASTEST UTURN IN HISTORY ON MY ACCOUNT; BULLISHAs we explained last week, the break of 540 sends it down back into the 300s before making a slight recovery towards the end of the week. Momentum is with Bitcoin and the all-exclusive 100k break. If this is about to happen on the latest dip, we could see another gap this coming Thanksgiving week of Monday.
Don't Change That Channel Part 2I did not make the first channel high enough. So, this is an update. I threw in an auto pitch fork that seems to validate the thesis.
We did take a run out the top of the channel and the shorts pushed the price back inside our seemingly durable path. Let's see what happens.
MicroStrategy’s $31.2 billion (net of $4.2 billion debt) $BTC MicroStrategy’s stock price typically reacts more aggressively than the price of bitcoin due to: Leverage: The company’s strategy effectively acts as a leveraged bet on bitcoin due to its financing structure.
Investor Sentiment: Rising bitcoin prices boost enthusiasm for MicroStrategy’s strategy, often driving its stock price higher by a multiple of bitcoin's price increase.
Given MicroStrategy’s past correlation to bitcoin price increases, the stock could see a higher-than-50% surge, potentially amplifying the company’s market capitalization far beyond the proportional increase in bitcoin prices.
Value of Bitcoin Holdings:
Current Bitcoin Holdings: 279,420 bitcoins
Value at $100,000/Bitcoin: $27.942 billion
Value at $150,000/Bitcoin: $41.913 billion
This is a $13.971 billion increase in the value of its bitcoin holdings.
NASDAQ:MSTR is valued at around 80 Billion +/-
The strategy depends on a buoyant market for bitcoin and irrational enthusiasm for MicroStrategy’s stock.
$MSTRupdated
just wanted to show off how precise one can actually be when they use tools correctly,
invalid above todays high
MSTRThe bullish case for MicroStrategy (MSTR) appears compelling. While the company has already experienced significant growth this year, several potential catalysts suggest further upside:
Bitcoin Market Dynamics
We're potentially entering the final phase of the Bitcoin bull cycle
The company's significant Bitcoin holdings position it to benefit from any price appreciation
Market Environment
Current market conditions suggest a potentially reflexive period ahead
Bitcoin price projections from analysts range from $220,000 to $500,000
Corporate Development
Recent earnings call highlighted a substantial $42 billion acquisition
This strategic move could significantly impact the company's valuation
Given these factors, MSTR's valuation could see substantial multiplication from current levels.
