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1MSTR trade ideas

Strategic $MSTR Accumulation: $340 Break for Macro ContinuationDecided to start buying back some $MSTR. I’ve been waiting since late December to begin accumulating, and I initially thought it would stay above $300, forcing me to jump back in. Now that it's in an optimal buy area with enough confluence on the weekly timeframe, I’m accumulating under $250. I’ll add the last chunk once it breaks above $340. Just keep in mind there’s a strong weekly downtrend in play, but it’s already hit the first target, so I expect a bounce. If it reclaims the POC at $340, it would invalidate the downtrend. So, I'm taking my chances on a possible invalidation and a continuation of the macro trend.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ZelfTrade
Headed down to the 1:1.618?MicroStrategy has been the leading indicator for Bitcoin for quite sometime now; as well as TOTAL. It ran into some resistance at the 0.618 window on the 4th wave up. In terms of Elliot Wave, typically there are 5 connective waves inside each wave of a 3 wave correction. This is not always the case but sometimes it can provide potential clues. If I am reading the waves correctly; then MSTR may be forming the 5th wave down. And quite often the 5th wave is a doozie. If this TA plays out and MSTR finds support at the 1:618 pocket; then this could be the completion of a 1:1.618 3 wave correction on a larger time frame. -Not Financial Advice-
NASDAQ:MSTR
by TheGemHunter
17
MSTR | Back to 120s / Double Digits | FractalPrice action blew off to a high around $540 and since then closed back under the historical close. The goal here is to see price action consolidate under resistance in the preparation for a major sell-off To invalidate all of this I would like to see more of an accumulation pattern back above major resistance, but if we see an increase in aggressive selling then price will be hunting for at least $120. Price action also looked a bit familiar to the 2021 sell-off with the same blow-off-top and a ABC pattern breakdown After the C sell-off price retraced back to B and then finally flushed out back to major support Current price action has pretty much done the first phase and we should expect some consolidation before the next big move.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Nathanl19
MSTR📊 MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) – Technical & Simple Fundamental Analysis 1️⃣ Technical Analysis 🔍 Overall Trend Analysis Long-term uptrend remains intact, but the stock is currently in a pullback phase from its $500 peak. Testing 50-day EMA support ($238.91) – a key level for bulls to defend. Short-term momentum is bearish, with declining RSI and a bearish MACD crossover. 📌 Key Levels ✅ Support Zones: $230 - $240 → Testing 50-day EMA, crucial support. $180 - $200 → Stronger demand zone if $230 fails. $120 - $140 → Near 200-day EMA ($118.00), deeper correction level. Below $120 → Supports at $100, $80, $60, $40 (historical levels). 🚀 Resistance Zones: $280 - $300 → Immediate resistance after rejection. $340 - $360 → Next resistance from recent peaks. $420 - $500 → All-time high resistance. 📉 Indicators & Volume 📊 Moving Averages: 9-day EMA: $297.18 (short-term resistance). 20-day EMA: $297.58 (confirming short-term bearish trend). 50-day EMA: $238.91 (being tested as support). 200-day EMA: $118.00 (long-term uptrend remains intact). 📉 RSI (43.94) → Approaching oversold territory. 📉 MACD → Bearish crossover, showing downward momentum increasing. 📊 Volume → Selling volume increasing, but not extreme yet. 🔭 What to Watch Next (Technical) ✅ Bullish case: Price holds $230-$240 & reclaims $280. ⚠️ Bearish case: Break below $230 → Potential drop to $200 or lower. 2️⃣ Fundamental Analysis NASDAQ:MSTR (Simplified) 📌 Revenue: $57.53M (-3% YoY), Net Loss: -$670.8M in Q4 2024. 📌 Bitcoin Holdings: 478,740 BTC (~$45.1B market value, acquired for $31.1 billion). 📌 Capital Raising: Issuing $21B in preferred securities to fund further Bitcoin purchases. 📌 Stock Performance: Down last 3 months 📌 Workforce Cuts: Laid off 20.7% of employees in 2024. 📌 Rebranding: Now officially called "Strategy", symbolizing its Bitcoin-focused direction. 🔭 What to Watch Next (Fundamental) ✅ Bitcoin price movement – heavily influences MSTR. ✅ Earnings improvements – need to reduce losses. ✅ Institutional buying trends – support or sell-off? 🔥 Final Thoughts: MSTR is at a critical support zone. If Bitcoin remains strong, a bounce is possible. However, a breakdown below $230 could trigger deeper downside. 🚀📊
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by monkreet
Can MicroStrategy Save Bitcoin's Destiny?MicroStrategy’s dramatic stock decline has become a bellwether for the broader digital asset market. As its share price plunges, the company’s deep ties to Bitcoin spotlight a precarious balance between corporate strategy and the volatility inherent in the crypto space. This unfolding scenario challenges investors to reconsider the intertwined fates of traditional finance and digital innovation. The company’s approach to using Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve has been revolutionary and risky. Aggressive accumulation strategies, including debt financing and Bitcoin-backed loans, have magnified the impact of market fluctuations. With critical support levels now under threat, the risk of forced asset sales looms large—an event that could cascade through the crypto ecosystem and undermine confidence in digital currencies. Amid these challenges, MicroStrategy is also pursuing bold financing initiatives to stabilize its operations. Plans to raise $21 billion through a preferred stock offering signal a dual objective: securing necessary capital and further investing in Bitcoin. This move reflects an ongoing commitment to a Bitcoin-centric strategy, even as recent transactions have resulted in significant unrealized losses. In parallel, the cryptocurrency landscape faces unprecedented headwinds from regulatory pressures, geopolitical tensions, and emerging technological vulnerabilities. Financial professionals are compelled to balance risk with opportunity, rethinking investment strategies amid an environment where innovation meets uncertainty at every turn. The looming threat of quantum computing adds another layer of complexity. As quantum technologies advance, their potential to break current cryptographic standards—on which Bitcoin’s security fundamentally relies—poses a significant risk. Should quantum computers overcome encryption protocols like SHA-256, the very foundation of blockchain technology could be compromised, forcing the industry to adopt quantum-resistant measures rapidly. This challenge not only underscores the volatility of the digital asset market but also inspires a deeper exploration into safeguarding the future of decentralized finance.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by UDIS_View
MicroStrategy (MSTR) at a Pivotal Level – What's Next?📊 Technical Analysis (TA) & GEX Breakdown 📊 Market Structure & Price Action: * Trend: MSTR is consolidating after a strong bullish move but is testing a key support trendline. * Resistance Zone: $320.94 – This level aligns with previous price action and a reversal zone. * Support Levels: $285.10 (current bid) and $281.26 – If this zone breaks, downside risk increases. * Volume & Momentum: Declining volume on pullback suggests a potential bounce, but buyers need to step in soon. Indicators Overview: * MACD: Slight bearish crossover, indicating potential short-term weakness. * Stoch RSI: Oversold conditions, which may hint at a reversal if buying pressure increases. GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis: * Call Wall Resistance: $330 – A breakout above this level could trigger gamma squeezes. * Highest GEX Call Resistance: $350 – A major level where dealers could hedge aggressively. * Put Support Wall: $250 – If price breaks lower, this is a major defensive zone. * Implied Volatility (IV): Elevated IV suggests high expected movement, favoring option sellers. * Options Sentiment: 85.1% Calls Dominance – Bullish positioning, but needs follow-through. Trade Outlook & Strategy: * Bullish Scenario: Holding the $285 support and reclaiming $300+ could lead to a retest of $320-$330. * Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $280 may accelerate downside to the $250 support wall. * Key Level to Watch: $290-$295 zone – a reclaim could fuel further momentum. 🚨 Final Thoughts:
MSTR is at a critical decision point. A hold above $285 could lead to an upward push, but failure risks testing lower support levels. Options data supports bullish flow, but price action needs to confirm. Trade cautiously and watch key levels closely. 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. 🚀
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BullBearInsights
MSTR...good time to get out!!You've been warned, MSTR is on the brink of turning a sharp corner south of the border. I found MSTZ (inverse) a really good leverage ETF to catch this. The case for BTC is becoming weaker breaking the 80k price level and it typically means that it will happen again. Don't let the crypto reserve etc. fool you. We all saw what happened with the Trump crypto coin, it was a cash grab and the same thing is happening with much of the crypto world. The original case (non-banking reliance) for BTC post financial crisis is being span around and the financial companies don't even have the compliance guidelines or the manpower to take it on. We are not going to buy vegetables with crypto anytime soon, maybe in the medium distance future, but for today the volatility is pushing down on BTC, which means that MSTR will get impacted. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by antonini2002
1
STRATEGY I Huge upside potential. Why it's great long term buy.This is not a short-term trade as you know from me on FX, Crypto and Indices. This is buy and hold investment. I got already good bag of share and I'm still adding without trying to time if perfectly, but now I think its time to buy bigger positions. MSTR is my 2nd biggest position after the Bitcoin and TESLA). Many people thinks its a risky and that the company must sell BTC if price drops. Which is not true. Just let me explain. Why MicroStrategy is Considered a Top Investment MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is often seen as a leading investment for those wanting to invest in Bitcoin through a stock. The company holds significant Bitcoin (nearly 500K BTC) as its primary treasury asset and has been buying more using funds from convertible bonds and other financing. In 2024, its Bitcoin holdings were worth around $25 billion, and its stock rose nearly 400% due to Bitcoin's price surge. They are still buying more and their goal is 1 milion BTC. How They Work with Convertible Bonds MicroStrategy issues convertible senior notes, which are bonds with low or zero interest rates that can be converted into its stock at a predetermined price. For example, in November 2024, it issued $3 billion in 0% notes due 2029, with an initial conversion rate of about 1.4872 shares per $1,000, equating to a $672 conversion price MicroStrategy completes $3 billion convertible notes offering By Investing.com. Bondholders can choose to convert into stock if the price is high, or demand cash repayment under certain conditions, like on June 1, 2028. This allows MicroStrategy to raise capital without immediate stock dilution, using the funds to buy more Bitcoin. What If the Price BTC price Drops Significantly If MicroStrategy's stock or Bitcoin price drops significantly, bondholders might not convert their bonds, preferring to redeem them for cash. Here many investors things that MSTR will have to sell BTC. In the fact yes. But they are borowing long-term with zero interest. Thoughts on MSTR Liquidation Risk: The only liquidation risk I can see is via their convertible debt offerings: 1) If convertible debt buyers do not convert to shares before maturity, it forces MSTR to sell BTC to reimburse debt holders. 2) This would happen if MSTR doesn't pump more than ~40% in 5-7 years (varies according to each bond, see table below) Basically either MSTR correlation to BTC needs to fail or BTC needs to fail. There's other risks of varying magnitude: - Competition risk, others copying the playbook reducing MSTR premium to NAV - SEC intervention risk of future buys, reducing MSTR premium to NAV - Custodial risk at Fidelity and Coinbase - US nationalisation risk (seize the BTC) - Saylor key man risk - MSTR operational risk In the end every invesment you do comes with risk. If there is no risk no gain will be possible. Hope this clear your hesitations, let me know your opinions abou this stock. Good Luck David Perk
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by David_Perk
30