Check Out Oracle’s Chart Heading Into Next Week’s EarningsOracle NYSE:ORCL is set to report fiscal third-quarter results next Monday (March 10) after the closing bell rings in New York. What is technical and fundamental analysis saying about the software/cloud/AI giant’s stock heading into the results?
Oracle’s Fundamental Analysis
As I write this, the Street is looking for ORCL to report $1.49 of adjusted earnings per share and about $1.07 of GAAP EPS on $14.4 billion of revenue.
Such an adjusted-earnings print would represent 5.7% growth from the $1.41 Oracle reported in the year-ago period, while revenues would gain some 8.4% from the $13.3 billion the company saw in Q3 2024.
That kind of growth would be more or less in line with what Oracle has seen in its past two quarters, which saw y/y sales growth of 7% and 9%, respectively.
Oddly enough, while all 27 analysts that I found who cover the stock have reduced their earnings estimates for Oracle’s fiscal third quarter since it began, sell-side analysts expect to see better things over the longer term.
They forecast Oracle's y/y sales growth will accelerate over the balance of calendar-year 2025, ending the 12-month period about 12% higher.
Of course, readers might recall that for its fiscal second quarter ended Nov. 30, Oracle fell short of analysts’ consensus estimates on both revenues and adjusted earnings per share.
In fact, Oracle has missed the mark on analysts’ sales expectations in six of the past seven quarters. In other words, don’t take anything for granted.
Some believe Oracle has missed estimates because the firm is somewhat dependent on Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA for chips, but that rising demand for NVDA’s high-end, AI-capable chips has crimped Nvidia's ability to deliver in quantity,
There’s also speculation that DeepSeek’s success in creating AI systems with fewer high-tech chips means demand for Nvidia’s older GPUs could rise, creating scarcity for firms like Oracle that rely on older chips.
Oracle’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s check out ORCL’s chart going back some 18 months:
Readers will see that the stock has been in a persistent uptrend since late 2023.
However, ORCL failed in December 2024 to break out of that trend to the upside and instead sold off. The stock also tried to rally in early 2025, but failed again.
Still, Oracle has consistently found support close to $152 (marked with a purple line at the right of the above chart) since 2025 began.
What this has done is to create what looks like a so-called “descending triangle” pattern, marked with the two purple lines at right in the chart above.
What's the difference between a “descending triangle” and a “falling wedge”? A whole lot.
A falling-wedge pattern forms when resistance and support both fall simultaneously, but the resistance level falls more quickly than support. That’s historically an indicator of a bullish reversal that could be triggered when the two lines converge.
By contrast, a descending-triangle pattern occurs when resistance falls, but support is close to flat-lining.
This pattern also historically could trigger a response when the two lines converge, but typically sparks a bearish continuation instead of bullish reversal. That’s what the chart above appears to point to.
Looking at Oracle’s other technical indicators, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the above chart’s top) is weak, but not alarmingly so.
However, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars) currently looks bearish.
The histogram of Oracle’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars above) is below zero. So is the stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line above) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). All of that is historically bearish.
Additionally, the stock’s 12-day EMA is running below its 26-day EMA, which is also traditionally bearish.
Meanwhile, Oracle’s 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red line in the chart above) is close to $158 vs. the $150.94 that the stock was trading at Friday afternoon.
That $158 level currently serves as the stock’s downside pivot point -- and the line that those who are trading Oracle’s stock or related options will be focusing on.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ORCL at the time of writing this column.)
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