Resistance being metI would be very cautious into the new year with this stock. Looking into the gains we are seeing it will be difficult to move out of these resistance bands as we have met some heavy resistance since falling off of average volume today.
I was stupid to sell this a few days ago, but taking any form of profit is never stupid. Realize your gains at this point and take at least 25% of your chips off the table until we meet another buy spot.
Long term this is still running its course and will look to gain more, however over the next week or two I think we could see a few red days if Bitcoin decides to take a dive.
1RIOT trade ideas
RIOT: The ultimate guideUnfortunately I had a sell limit at $11.50 that triggered the other week and I'm really regretful because I have conviction in this company. As a result of this unfortunate event, I've decided to share my ultimate breakdown of this company looking forward, I truly believe in this company & hope to inspire some other investors to take a look and buy some :)
The Model
Although Riot is nothing like IIPR, they are in fact very similar. I'm talking about their business models! I'm unsure if a name exists for what I'm about to explain, however for simplicity I like to call it The Perpetual Asset Model.
This model consists of a few steps which are the basis for the growth and allow the company to rapidly expand operations and thus increase both vAssets and vEquity without the need for debt financing. The steps are as follows and are very simple to understand:
(1) Issue equity to raise capital
(2) Use capital for OPEX (e.g., buying ant miners, or property in the case of IIPR)
(3) Seek a tangible ROI (e.g., +mining bitcoin, or rent in the case of IIPR)
Riot can increase the vAssets by issuing equity to buy more ant miners and mine more bitcoin. Usually issuing equity is not good for shareholders (duh) because it dilutes the value per shares. However, there is more than meets the eye, I used the word perpetual in the model's name, lets understand why:
As Riot increases its hash rate with more ant miners, it'll be able to mine more bitcoin and therefore generate more profit, so the reason this model is perpetual lies in the value of bitcoin. If the value of bitcoin (an asset on their balance sheet) increases faster than the equity dilution deteriorates share price, then equity will actually rise in value instead of fall. I used IIPR as an example because the property they buy with cash raised from equity offerings goes towards property that both generates income and appreciates in value (they also sign a 4% annual rent increase YoY with tenants).
So the perpetual nature of this model is a function of bitcoin's value. As bitcoin increases in value and Riot issues more equity to increase mining capability, it'll eventually be able to self-sustain OPEX by (1) mining more bitcoin, (2) selling bitcoin as it increases in value, and (3) using these funds to further grow its operational output, just like IIPR is doing (except their bitcoin is the rent increase YoY + property appreciation equivalent).
In short:
- The assets on their balance sheet will eventually be fully self-funded solely by the appreciation of bitcoin
- Early on, if Riot keeps X% of the bitcoin they mine and issues equity to fund operational expansion (increase mining capabilities), and if bitcoin does keep increasing in value, they'll eventually hit a point where:
PV future profits from increase in mining capabilities > funds received from equity issuance
And therefore, in theory, they'll eventually mine enough bitcoin and have enough on their balance sheet to fully self-fund operations
I hope you all enjoyed this, just me geeking out on some corporate finance stuff (haha), I will be repurchasing Riot very soon, leave me a comment or question, would love to answer! And don't forget to like!
RIOT Unusual Call ActivityUnusual OI and call volume on the the 1/15/21 $15c. Check with your broker but TD showing big spike on 12/16, 12/17 & 12/18.
Following its lower trendline, caught horizontal support as well as the support on the 8 EMA. I'd like to see a break on the upper resistance trendline on the RSI before making an entry.
RIOT updateold my remaining shares today at $11.50, has a limit sell at the price and it got triggered.
For the coming month I'll mainly be playing options while the market rallies then I'll go back into swing trading a little more!
My options list:
$AMD above 98 (already in)
$CRM above 227
$ZM above 404
$BA below 219
$PLTR above 29 (already in)
RIOT updateThe last 5 trading sessions that saw the price take a breather, or correction, have been on lower volume. Combined with bitcoin's choppiness, I believe this was nothing more than a shake down and people taking profit (as I have, I sold half my position).
I don't have a price target anymore because bitcoin could rally and cause this thing to fly beyond what I'm thinking
Nice Pattern into New Year!Ive resinded all of my shares and have taken a bit of a vacation with Cyberpunk coming out and will reenter on the next downward slope. I am hoping that we follow this trend to allow for an entry. However Bitcoin does not seem to be bouncing down right now and it is throwing this stock into a very good territory. Will revisit this stock in the coming weeks.
No price targets for me just yet. Stay tuned for another entry.
RIOT updateLittle update here:
(1) lower volume
(2) playing off both the 50ema and 1.618 Fibonacci line
(3) BTC consolidating (forming a base)
(4) market timing, every morning we're seeing distribution followed by accumulation, this has me believing we're in tax season (sell-off)
I'm a buyer at $8-8.20 or $7-7.50, depending on how the volume the picks up and dries up over the following few days, sitting on 30% cash and still need to sell my 1 loser. Fresh powder will get diploid when the price is right, patience!
RIOT 11/23/2020RIOT seeing a huge rally due to BITCOIN rallying to all time high's as we approach December another a bull phase of BITCOIN we can expect RIOT to rally as well, Last Friday we had a great entry on RIOT @$5.80
RIOT opened today with a strong move up to $6.20 pushing all the way to $7 before seeing momentum and volume slow down.
Scenario A: RIOT see's another move up to $10, with our target $20 as that is All Time High in 2017 during the bitcoin bull phase.
Scenario B: RIOT has a pull back @$6 to fill the gap from the strong move we saw this morning
RIOT $15 target if BITCOIN stay's bullish
Acquire positions when RIOT dip's
$10.30 Sell Was NothingWe saw a pretty heavy sell off around $10.30-$10.35.
Dont stress this too much. Heavy red candles are the minefield we are dodging. The sell volume will be very erratic and irrational with us being above common supports here.
I would look to our previous high, which was a very long time ago however we must look to history to see where this rocket will land.
Will keep everyone updated with how opening goes on Monday. Looking for a slight pull back but hopefully nothing major.