Riot back to trendThis whip saw market is certainly flushing out leverage. I remain in my spot shares and am contemplating June 20$ calls. Riot like Coin is back to trend although this riot trend line began a full year ago. Both of my short term bearish price targets of 17$ and 15$ were hit. This ETF tease is really going to spook retail. Will we get another flash crash?
1RIOT trade ideas
Riot to 20$ishI am expecting one of my larger bags (riot) to hit about 20$ before the next correction. Riot and Mara have been on absolute tears lately. My theory that Bitcoin related stocks precede Bitcoin price action has been proven true the past few weeks. A correction to the dashed red would be optimal, although Riot likes to overreact in each direction. A more bearish target is 15.15$ish. In summary I am short-term bullish, medium-term bearish, long-term bullish.
RIOT REVERSAL?Crypto is gaining sentiment while market front runs rate cuts pricing in 4-5 cuts. Now earnings of companies in NASDAQ who is entangled with crypto holdings and institutions recover from the FTX debacle. MicroStrategy's SAYLOR, sees BTC higher with April halving on top 2-10X increase in demand (he implies from ETF crypto filings, pending SEC decisions, he said (TICKER: MSTR). Riot is similar. Once SEC announces approval (otherwise they would not be entertaining SEC registration, if not), SELL THE NEWS!!!
Opening: RIOT January 19th 8/15/15/22 Iron Fly... for a 3.60 credit.
Comments: High IV/IVR (115.3%/36.3%). Looking for this to "behave" between the 11.40 and 18.60 break evens for a few weeks ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.60 ($360)/contract
Profit at 25% Max: .90 ($90)
Buying Power Effect: 3.40 ($340)/contract
ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect at 25% Max: 26.5%
Break Evens: 11.40/18.60
Delta/Theta: 4.17/2.05
Riot defensive putsToday I snagged a few 10$ puts in Jan to defend my large bag of spot riot. I expect the stock to fall to around the circle area if BTC is to correct to 37/8k over the coming few weeks. This consolidation is needed as the market was pretty over heated. The emas are starting to coil downward, RSI momentum is broken, the Bollinger bands were way overheated. A nice reset on RSI and price action would be appreciated for the greater longer term momentum. My first target is 12.9$. then 11.7$.
Elliot Wave Count & Targets RIOTRIOt has great rally off the lows.
Favoring 1 last leg higher, however targets were reached.
We will see how the pullback plays out, if remains above the previous low of $5.16 where we labelled it as wave (ii), we can go long with a stop loss just below that low.
Theress 3 nice gaps clearly visible below HKEX:9 , HKEX:8 & HKEX:7 ; so those are areas we can focus on for pullback target zone as we await for it to complete.
We're being VERY cautious at these highs as the rally is already over-extended (yes, still room for higher), but were also anticipating bears and sellers to take over to minimally retest the lows, if not resume lower, depending on how global/financial markets react over the next few days/weeks.
If you've entered a short from the highs, congratz to you, focus on taking profits in the HKEX:9 - HKEX:7 area and place a stop loss near the local high
RIOT: can go one of two waysRIOT price action has been interesting. The choppy action in the month of October has kept me out of a trade but, the November pump has made things a bit awkward. From EW perspective, I have 2 possible counts that are high probability. I have changed some degree of labeling from my last post, but overall, it's the same idea.
Option 1: Bearish idea that we are still having a larger degree wave 2. Price is putting in wave B right now and we will see a very sharp move down to complete intermediate wave 2 and then go into the bull run of all bull runs for the miner stock.
Option 2: Bullish idea that intermediate wave 2 is complete and price is already in the massive bull run.
So how do we know which one it is? The answer is to let some more time pass.
For option 1 we might see one or two more highs in the next few days before some kind of a bearish divergence gets created in RSI in lower (4/8/12 hour) to higher (daily) time frames. Then, the downturn would be sharp and quick. Everyone will say crypto is dead again and most likely the low of wave A will break.
For option 2, the same one or two highs in the next few days will be just the lower degree wave 3 and the retrace will be slow and choppy for wave 4 for a week or two and it will put in another 5 waves to complete the minor degree wave 1 and then the correction will be a longer wave 2.
The trade will be to watch the price and play the retrace. If things are sharp and quick, we can play the bounces with stop losses. If things are lazy and time consuming, then start to build small positions along fib retrace areas and DCA until some key level breaks. In both cases, trade is not right now and, in both cases, RIOT will make some crazy gains next year. Risk is lower above $20.
RIOT MARA UPDATE FROM OCTOBER.Hello all just doing an update from my previous idea in October regarding NASDAQ:MARA & $RIOT.
In October I took 3x option contracts.
1x NASDAQ:MARA 4$ 19 APR 24 Call
2x NASDAQ:RIOT 5$ 19 APR 24 Call
Currently I have sold 1x RIOT Call for 1,010$ which was a 100% return almost returning me all of my initial entry, and I am still holding 1 of each, currently the P&L went from $1400 inital, to $3,388.
Resulting in $1988 profit so far. 3 month P&L 137%
Bless up traders, it's time to eat :)
Love - Mindless
RIOT 15% minimum this weekBitcoin HAS 18 MONTH HIGHS so it seems only right RIOT should be @ 18 month highs for that to happen we need another 70% But...... we have only one obstacle left that is a weak high made in April 2023 @ 14.24 i believe we will test that by midday Monday and break it by Tuesday i expect to be above 15$ by Friday .... conservatively
Riot is testing the channel with BTC uptrendRiot has been building bullish momentum towards the upper channel we have had drawn for a while. The RIOT to BTC discount was pretty heavy a few weeks ago. We are seeing a breakout of the RSI trend and lots of buyside volume. The 4 EMAs are starting to curl upward and this is very bullish. If this follows my BTC 40k plan I expect Riot to break above this red resistance to the two dashed greens lines at least ( price target 1 & 2). My 12$ call thesis for Dec 12th has worked out despite the hater that called me a fool ; D
Riot on uptrend into ETF seasonRiot is on an overall uptrend on the weekly chart. The stock has been all over the place and extremely volatile, not always trending with BTC directly. The weekly RSI is taking a shot at a contraction breakout currently and volume is on a major uptrend. A previous trend line that served as support must be taken out as resistance for this move to really gain steam. My 12$ calls have printed since my posting regarding that. Three weekly EMAs have been taken out with only the 200 remaining. 200 moving averages being taken to the upside generally signal a macro reversal in momentum. If Bitcoin really hits my 40k price target for December, I see the teal resistance being tested which is 19-20$ for December. This area is also the .382 fib that was rejected which serves as a harsh resistance. Remember these price targets are for the price to be hit, not held. I still standby a 40k BTC then correction to previous resistances.
RIOT Long Entry RIOT is currently sitting at clear S/R level and back testing the 200 day MA as support. Bitcoin is either going to continue through $35k which will take Riot back to highs OR come back down to test $32k which would be a clear get out of this trade before any of the stops hit.
Probably going to close that gap between 10.05 and here so might get a better entry before the stop area. Anything under 50 daily MA is a no go (currently sitting at about $9.70)
R/R on this is insane. IMO.. DYOR!