ROKU- Bearish Divergence gives guidance LONGROKU sold off after okay not great earnings- obviously a large number of market participants
took their money off the table and moved it elsewhere. There was a typical or excessive price
run-up in the pre-earnings period. This chart set in a 15-minute time frame as well as 15
minute time frame on the RSI laid onto the main chart shows bullish divergence which
otherwise might be subtle. It is the key to the trade entry. It is saying get on the train before
it leaves the station. Chasing the train is a futile endeavor fraught with failure and
frustration. ( Yes, the hot tip is boldfaced for emphasis) Price is sideways at this time. The
relative volume indicator shows a huge 4X surge in volumes at the consolidated bottom verifying
it as such. This is Wychoff's theory in action for sure.
I am now part of that volume. I am an avid bottom buyer like many others. I take great
pains to analyse for the bottom, unlike some others who run on gut or sentiment.
I hope you find this analysis helpful. If you do, please give me a thumbs up. Once you have,
feel free to ask as to the specifics of my trading plan now implimented.
1ROKU trade ideas
Roku's Worst Earnings Sell-off Roku has sold off over 23.8% post Q4 earnings, being the worst drop post earnings ever in Roku's publicly traded shares. Along with that, Walmart recently announced M&A via the buyout of Vizio, and Roku dropped a further 7%, adding another hit to long term investors' market value. Roku's Q4 earnings address the elephant in the room: slowing growth post pandemic (market share, average revenue per user), higher interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainty, and competition in the streaming landscape. Their earnings also announced record user numbers, both U.S. and internationally of 80M accounts, 2024 free cash flow guidance, opex decreases, and future revenue guidance growth. Ultimately, the future earnings of Roku will ultimately determine of the bear thesis holds up and if this will further depress Roku's share price.
However, along with this major pullback, there is an opportunity to acquire shares that investors were once paying over 30% more for just a few days ago. Key levels to look out for are the 61.8% ( $65 ), 78.6% ( $55 ) retraces. Expect more buyers than sellers in these upcoming zones.
Accumulation Zone ROKU On Jan 24 following Netflix's (NFLX) earnings beat and share surge, optimistically a broadening pattern in Roku stock which confirmed a weekly candle low following a multi-week pullback in shares was detailed and published. I went on to say owning ROKU shares as part of a collar or one of its variations for both accumulation purposes and upside participation was a deserving position for bullish investors to consider imho.
As traders reading this are well aware, there would be no sequel to NFLX's earnings nod. After a near 10% rally over three weeks, ROKU's own mixed results sent shares cratering in excess of 20%.
Today and with shares down roughly 25% from my prior discussion price and more than 30% from recent highs, ROKU has moved into a well-supported technical zone consisting of longer-term pattern and Fibonacci levels dating as far back as December 2022. Moreover, for collared traders, accumulation can be done for pennies on the dollar versus the cost for stand-alone stock traders still bullish on shares and considering DCA, i.e. dollar cost averaging.
ROKU Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 021724Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 72.7/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
ROKU falls after an earnings beat dissapointmentROKU on the 30 minute chart had a sell-off after earnings which were okay not great. Traders
reacted. The question is whether it was an overreaction. I think it was. I am looking for a slow
recovery over a week or more to at least the standard retracement level which I will call 98 as
drawn by the tool. further upside targets are 101 and 104 based on VWAP bandlines.
Buying on the discount is sometimes an excellent tool to reduce risk and use the reversion to
the mean to best advantage and seize an overreaction in the market.
Roku's Rocky Road Ahead: Navigating the Storm of Streaming GiantRoku Inc. ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) finds itself at a crossroads, facing formidable challenges from industry heavyweights that threaten to disrupt its once-dominant position. The recent tumble in Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) stock price, plummeting nearly 23.86% after a bleak outlook for the first quarter, underscores the daunting hurdles ahead for the streaming service provider.
Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) struggle to fend off competition from giants like Netflix and Amazon reflects the intensifying battle for advertising dollars in the streaming space. With streaming behemoths encroaching on Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) territory, the company is grappling with a shifting paradigm, as the transition from smart devices to smart televisions diminishes demand for its devices.
Analysts, like Michael Nathanson from Moffett Nathanson, aptly describe Roku ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) as being "at the precipice of being squeezed by the emergence of challengers on all flanks." This sentiment highlights the existential threat looming over Roku as it faces mounting pressure from multiple fronts.
The potential acquisition of rival Vizio by retail titan Walmart adds another layer of complexity to Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) predicament. Walmart's interest in Vizio signals the emergence of yet another well-scaled competitor in Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) crucial retail channel. Moreover, Walmart's unparalleled relationship with major brands and its vast reservoir of shopping data pose a significant challenge to Roku's market incumbency.
Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) forecast of a steeper-than-expected first-quarter loss further compounds its woes. The company's struggle to meet analysts' expectations reflects the harsh reality of a fiercely competitive landscape and the adverse effects of external factors, such as the Hollywood strike, which have disrupted spending on media and entertainment promotions.
Despite these challenges, Roku ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) remains resilient, leveraging its innovative capabilities to navigate turbulent waters. The exclusive deal with Walmart to sell products fulfilled by the retail giant on its devices underscores Roku's ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) strategic partnerships and its commitment to maintaining relevance in a rapidly evolving industry.
Looking ahead, Roku ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) must adopt a proactive approach to address its vulnerabilities and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The company's ability to innovate, adapt, and forge strategic alliances will be pivotal in its quest to regain momentum and secure its position in the fiercely contested streaming arena.
As Roku ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) charts its course forward, investors and industry observers remain cautiously optimistic, with the average rating of 33 brokerages covering the stock hovering at "hold," accompanied by a median price target of $85. However, the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty, as Roku ( NASDAQ:ROKU ) navigates the storm of streaming giants in its pursuit of sustained growth and success.
ROKU: in mid-term support for bullish move into 2024-2025Price reacted to earnings right into the mid-term support zone: 83-71.
If suggested macro-structure holds true, this area may provide support/accumulation zone for building a bottom base for a larger move towards major resistance target (140-177-200+) later this year.
If price moves bellow 63 suggested price structure needs to be revised.
Thank you for your attention!
ROKU runs to Earnings ROKU on the 15- minute chart with an overlaid volume profile and anchored VWAP bands
demonstrates a high volume area breakout on Tuesday last week having passed through the
entire high volume area bottom to top the previous 24 hours. On those days it had a burst of
volume. The volume is constant and consistent. Earnings are in two days. More volume
spiking has been seen in the last trading session. I see this as an excellent long trade setup
as a swing trade for the rest of the week into next if the earnings are better than they were
last November
ROKU is pulled back for re-entryROKU has been downtrending in a retracement of the uptrend from late May to mid June.
On the 2H chart, price has fallen from the top of the fair value zone the bottom of the fair value
zone. The zone is the area between the VWAP bands of the anchored VWAP. Institutional buyers
prefer to buy in either the under valued zone or the lower portions of the fair value zone and
then in turn sell high in that zone or above it in the over valued zone. The RSI indicator shows
RSI to have descended into the oversold zone where RSI is about 20. On the volume profile
price has descended into the high volume area where increased trading volume will support
price and likely push a reversal.
ROKU Reverse H & S setup LongROKU trended up paradoxically from less than a fairly weak earnings report about November 1
'23 and then reversed into a trend down into the support of the 0.382 and 0.5 Fib levels in a
retracement. Price is now forming a head and shoulders pattern having found that support.
It is above the POC line on the evolving POC and high volume area. Based on the latter,
I believe that it now has room for the upside to $104 for about 18% potential. With a stop at
$84 below the POC line, I see this as a safe play in the areas of technology and multi-media
at a lower price than NFLX and Disney.
Traditional cable TV is in the past. Idea for 08/02/2024Streaming TV software and hardware provider Roku Inc. could become one of the primary beneficiaries of the mass abandonment of cable television users. The company has several advantages over its competitors, offering video streaming services.
By the end of 2022, only 65.1 million US households continued to have traditional cable television , a decrease of 9.0% from 2021. The share of US households subscribing to cable TV also declined, dropping to 49.7%, down from 55.4% in 2021.
Given this shift, Roku's offering is particularly valuable to consumers due to its user-friendly, universal interface across multiple streaming services.
So, today, we suggest looking at the Roku Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) stock chart.
On the D1 timeframe, support has formed at 81.80, with resistance at 94.90. A subjective technical analysis figure, the "Inverted head and shoulders," has also developed and can serve as a signal for a reversal of the downward trend.
On the H1 timeframe, a breakthrough of the 94.90 level could set a short-term target for a price increase at 107.09, while in the medium term, it could hover around 118.20.
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ROKU ICT/STRAT playNASDAQ:ROKU : Looking for 1-3 reaction off daily order block, which respects current downward trendline, if it goes 1-3-2 that will also RE-trigger 2-2 1m. Set up presents itself whether you're using ICT or theStrat those are always the best plays high quality plays when used together
Longer-Term Path to Growth for ROKU StockWall Street has backed away from today's tag along bid in ROKU stock following a buoyant Netflix (NFLX) earnings related price spike in shares. But Roku's broadening pattern / uptrend on the weekly has signaled a candle low in shares with a neutralized and hairs breadth stochastics cross over also looking supportive. With earnings about three weeks out, and dominant industry position which makes ROKU worthy of a longer-term position, owning shares as part of a collar or one of its variations for both accumulation purposes and upside participation is a deserving position for bullish investors to consider imho.
ROKURoku, Inc. is an American public company founded in 2002. It produces streaming devices and smart TVs, licenses its technology to other companies, and operates an advertising business on its streaming network. Roku leads streaming TV distribution in the U.S., and reports 70 million viewers globally as of 2023.