1SMCI trade ideas
Possible Butterfly Bull Trap in SMCI The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern.
Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template.
However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH?
When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high.
This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone.
This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends.
Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
Super Micro Computer's AI Server AscendancyIn the bustling landscape of AI server providers, Super Micro Computer Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) emerges as a beacon of innovation and efficiency, securing its spot in the prestigious S&P 500 index. With close alliances with tech giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro rides the crest of the AI server boom, revolutionizing the market with its agile product development and cutting-edge liquid cooling technology.
Unveiling the Advantages:
Unlike its competitors, Super Micro boasts unparalleled agility in product launch, courtesy of its strategic partnerships with Nvidia and AMD. This advantage propels Super Micro to the forefront of AI server supply, fueling a staggering 289% surge in its shares within a single year. Analysts laud the company's ability to swiftly manufacture, assemble, test, and ship server racks, often within mere weeks, positioning it as a key supplier in the realm of generative AI applications.
Revenue Surge and Market Projections:
Super Micro's meteoric rise isn't merely a fleeting trend; rather, it's a testament to its robust revenue growth, which more than doubled in the final quarter of 2023. Projections paint a rosy picture, with analysts foreseeing triple-digit percentage growth until at least the September quarter of 2024. Bank of America forecasts a substantial increase in Super Micro's share of the AI server market, projecting a rise to 17% by 2026.
Valuation and Risk Factors:
Despite its stellar performance, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) faces scrutiny over its lofty valuation, currently trading at 40 times expected earnings—a significant leap from its PE of 15 just months prior. This valuation hike heightens the risk of a potential selloff should the company falter in meeting future earnings expectations. However, with its proven track record and innovative edge, Super Micro remains poised to navigate these challenges adeptly.
The Liquid Cooling Revolution:
In tandem with the surge in AI server demand, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) spearheads the adoption of liquid cooling technology—an indispensable solution for data center operators grappling with the escalating heat generated by AI chips. Super Micro's proprietary liquid cooling tech, boasting a 40% reduction in power consumption compared to traditional air cooling methods, positions it as a frontrunner in the race towards enhanced efficiency and sustainability in data center operations.
Challenges on the Horizon:
While Super Micro basks in its current success, analysts caution against complacency, highlighting the looming threat of intensified competition from industry heavyweights. Moreover, the company's strategy of offering products at lower rates to gain market share could potentially undermine its profitability in the long run. Nonetheless, with its penchant for innovation and adaptability, Super Micro remains well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of AI server provision.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:SMCI shares after starting off the day well ended up plummeting by 6.96% despite its inclusion in the S&P 500. Trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53 indicating there isn't much overbought lately.
Possible long entry.If the price closes above 1200 usd with above average volume, a long entry would be possible.
SMCI Super Micro Computer Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought SMCI ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SMCI Super Micro Computer prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 480usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-1,
for a premium of approximately $42.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SMCI looks ready to breakoutVolume's dropped off, PA consolidated inside a penant on the daily. Could go either way, would personally have a stop loss around $805. Short-term target $1200.
$SMCI The short has begun. Lower RSI and falling and failed to cross the RSI MA on hourly chart. Higher probability of a retracement due to strong run up.
Smci No stocks can stay above a hot rsi at 94 for more and a week or two . April 19 puts would the safest bet on this scam as we all know they tend to just keep going up regardless of the overnight indicators at least for couple days , but then when the correction happens we will se 20% drops in a day and continue for a month of downtrend. At rsi of 94 on the weekly it is in a good position to be shorter with little risk. Not an advice
SMCI Has it topped?Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is about to complete a 10 straight green week streak if the 1W candle closes bullish today. This is a highly impressive feat that not only it hasn't done before but only a few stocks have managed to do historically. On the other hand, this may be a signal that yet again, SMCI is time to take a breather.
Why? First because it has completed a +417.86% price increase since the October 30 2023 Low, which is the exact % rise the stock did during its previous Bullish Leg from January 27 2023 to July 31 2023. At the same time, the 1W RSI is testing the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in June 2018.
If rejected today, we expect the stock to correct by -35.55%, which might be significant, but nothing compared to the rise it has achieved. In fact as you can see on the chart, such % decline has been very common in the past 4 years. Amidst the correction, we expect it to make contact with the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). As long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds as a Support, the long-term bullish trend is intact, and every such correction is a long-term buy opportunity.
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Navigating High-Flying Momentum Stocks: Insights from SMCINavigating the intricacies of high-flying momentum stocks can be challenging, especially when they move at an exponential pace. Take SMCI for instance, a prime example of such stocks. Upon examining its chart, I noticed a rising wedge within an uptrend. Typically, these patterns tend to resolve to the downside.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that sometimes these wedges experience an overshoot breakout. In such cases, patience becomes paramount as you await the stock's return within the wedge to initiate a short position, targeting a decline towards the bottom of the wedge formation.
Upon closer inspection, an intriguing RSI divergence emerges. While the price continues to make new highs, the RSI heads in the opposite direction, failing to confirm the upward movement. This discrepancy warrants attention as it often signifies a potential reversal in the making.
Understanding these technical indicators can provide valuable insights for navigating volatile market conditions and making informed trading decisions. Keep a keen eye on SMCI and similar stocks for potential trading opportunities based on these observations.
SMCI buy zone?My dowsing is suggesting a potential big low coming in this name. I have tomorrow coming up multiple times as a possible reversal date and entry long.
It could be Wednesday though, and the downside I've gotten as 789, but earlier a couple times got something about the number 18, which I thought was percent and would = around $700.
I ask if we hit there though and get no.
My targets on this are usually over shot fyi, but there is positive energy being suggested and a buying opportunity potentially for a longer term. Same with NVDA.
I asked the date to exit and get May 2026. A couple days ago it told me 20 months = Oct. 2026
Another dowser said he got a "yes" to 20 months, so this isn't necessarily going away anytime soon.
I'll work on an upside later. Not so worried about it since this is a longer term idea (I believe) and I'm not confident I would get a correct answer anyway.
We'll see!
One Last Pop To At Least 1170Buying this dip here to catch the final pop before ditribution begins.
Minimum target 1170
- earliest by end of day 2/16
- latest Mar 1 2024
*** Anything above this will be pure squeeze, but there is really no roof for how high this can go.. I'd say 1300-1500
Pretty wild.
the parabolic rally continues!🚀boost and follow for more! thanks❤️🔥 SMCI with a bullish break past 810/major trend resistance, they want to send it to 1000+! insane rally
I wouldn't consider shorts unless we broke back below that trend resistance/733 pivot level, if that comes my 483-664 targets🎯can come into play.
Super Micro's S&P 500 Entry Signals AI's Ascendancy: A Deep DiveThe tech landscape is ablaze as Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ), a leading AI server maker, prepares to enter the illustrious S&P 500 index. This move underscores the seismic shift towards artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in Wall Street's premier benchmark, signaling a new era of innovation and opportunity. Let's explore the implications of Super Micro's( NASDAQ:SMCI ) inclusion in the S&P 500, unraveling the dynamics of the AI revolution and its profound impact on the market.
Super Micro's Meteoric Rise:
With shares soaring by 12% in premarket trading, Super Micro's ascension to the S&P 500 amplifies its prominence in the tech sector. The San Jose-based firm has emerged as a key player in the AI frenzy, witnessing a staggering 1,000% surge since the close of 2022. This meteoric rise, including a remarkable three-fold increase in 2024 alone, catapults Super Micro's market value to an impressive $50.6 billion, cementing its status as a heavyweight contender in the AI arena.
Implications of S&P 500 Inclusion:
The inclusion of Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI )and Deckers Outdoor Corp in the S&P 500 marks a significant milestone for both companies. As stalwarts Whirlpool Corp and Zion Bancorp make way for these AI-driven innovators, investors are poised to capitalize on the shifting tides of market dynamics. Notably, the reshuffling at popular index funds tracking the S&P 500, with assets totaling approximately $7.8 trillion, underscores the magnitude of this transition. With an estimated $30.1 billion in rebalance trading anticipated before March 18, the stage is set for a flurry of activity as Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) assumes its place among the market titans.
AI Boom and Market Trends:
Super Micro's ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) ascent to the S&P 500 mirrors the broader trend of money managers flocking to AI-related companies in the wake of Nvidia's stellar performance. As Nvidia surges to become the third most valuable U.S. company, investors are increasingly drawn to firms capitalizing on the AI boom. Super Micro's ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) recent blowout quarterly results and raised revenue forecast further fuel enthusiasm for its growth prospects, positioning it as a frontrunner in the AI landscape.
Conclusion:
Super Micro's ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) imminent entry into the S&P 500 symbolizes the maturation of the AI sector and its integration into the fabric of the market. As AI continues to reshape industries and redefine investment opportunities, stakeholders must navigate this evolving landscape with strategic acumen and foresight. With Super Micro poised to ride the wave of AI innovation, investors stand to gain from the company's inclusion in the S&P 500 and the broader proliferation of AI-related stocks. As the tech revolution unfolds, Super Micro exemplifies the transformative power of AI-driven innovation, paving the way for a future defined by limitless possibilities and unparalleled growth.
Trend puternic crescator.After a spectacular growth, a zone of "quietness" must follow before the next big move. If the market conditions are good and the volumes increase, there will definitely be a new wave of beautiful growth for this issuer.
SMCI pullback projectionsI sold #SMCI too soon, but after a lower high am watching pullback areas, notably at a gap fill or a 62% Fib retrace around 600. Prefer the latter, obviously. Great stock, but too much hype-fueled momentum in February. It is making a sharp flag pattern which should ultimately prove a bull flag after a low is made.
$SMCI which direction from hereNASDAQ:SMCI falling RSI on 4 hourly chart is a red flag and not convincing to go long. There's a gap to fill too.
SMCI - builds the data centers for AI and is hotter than hotSuper Microcomputer is on hard run up trend- at its all-time high, this stock is demonstrating
a high tight bull flag pattern. In a massive move SCMI is up 180% YTD five months so on pace for
400% annualized. Most experts expect more of the same. It is currently resting in consolidation
( the tight channel of the pattern) The zero-lag MACD shows the lines about to cross over the
histogram. I will watch this stock for either a bullish continuation or a pullback. Its
fundamentals are outstanding and its collaboration with NVDA will carry it far. I will wait
for a great entry and take a big bite. This stock's P/E makes it an incredible bargain.
SMCI.....Who is kidding whom were?Hello Traders,
a wild ride for SMCI at the past week! Vola is back!
The massive buying-panic on Thursday`s session (`caused by the excellent earning @ Nvidia) has been sold on Friday!
My last count assumed a wave b upwards and a wave c to follow! I called this wave a "sucker-wave, `cause they try to lure traders to the wrong path! "B-waves" are kidding you, are looser waves! Be patient!
But what message did the last two candles carry in it self?
Thursdays candle was one with high vlume and a massiv gain, up to 30 % at the session. This is to much within a short time!
Friday`s session was the opposite of the day before. Selling pressure and weakening hands, including a "gap-down" at the opening!
The closing price on Friday was shy below Thursday`s open! So, if traders continuou the selling action, the target for this sell-off is at or around $588.- to 641.- range!
A technicly caused fresh buy-signal will occur at $1003.- on a closing basis daily!
We will see if this action is part of a wave 4 or if this is part of a wave 2 of high degree!
For a final conclusion I need more informations and traders action in the coming weeks ahead!
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as needed.
Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk.
SMCI Bull Trap Complete? Follow up to
We're now up to the classic 76 retracement level of a bull trap.
If SMCI is setting up the broad reversal spoken of previously, this should be around the end of the bull trap.
Stops must be taken if we break the 86 fib. Something horrible is liable to happen above there.
Covering shorts and long 820.Big downswing hit. Now it's possible we form various types of bull traps / new highs.
Lot of value long here 820 with really tight stops. Nasty if it breaks, but high RR to the required
stop loss level.
