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Southern Company Outlook for 2022Pour 2022 In my previous idea I'd said I was halting accumulation to see how SO was going to perform the rest of December. The main driver behind this decision was I didn't want to purchase shares at price levels SO hasn't been able to hold consistently. Basically: Anything above $63 I considered "wait and see". Building on my earlier idea, in 2022 I think this will change. My major expectation is for investors to search for safer assets: Bond-like equities. My reasons for believing this are two fold: Firstly, the investors of newer money are (I think) approaching the trough of the time vs. knowledge curve. Simply put: new money is learning enough about markets to know it doesn't know much. This will increase flows to safer sectors; namely: Utilities. Utilities, and the stable source of capital expenditure and profit they represent, will attract many investors unfamiliar with a stock market absent of Meme stocks and volatility. Secondly, economic conditions are tightening. Simply put, inflation is hot and has completely removed any momentum the already weak "recovery" had. 2022 will, in my view, have a major theme of a return to pre-COVID economics. Namely: disinflation, lower job openings, and slowing world trade. Utilities, historically, do very well under these conditions. Beyond 2022 As stated above, demographics and economic conditions will return to pre-pandemic structures. One of these conditions is a lowering birth rate. Seeing that SO supplies power to people, having less of them isn't a bullish indicator. However, COVID did introduce a very bullish condition for SO's area: migration. The flows of new people from liberal states into the southeast (mostly GA) will, in my view, continue clear through this decade. Financial conditions will also tighten significantly, regardless of FED actions. This has been the case for almost 40 years with Reserve actions having effects only at the margins. This is predominantly due to the fact that large monetary spending has placed significant bulwarks against American citizen's progression. Money can be printed but until it's cheap enough for the already over-indebted populous to borrow, debt will continue to destroy future purchasing power. The theme for the decade will be disinflation as the economy grinds to a near-halt under the weight of our own debt (this is a long process). Utilities and mega-caps will be the only place where capital can survive relatively un-molested. Flows into these assets (and the indexes that hold them) will grow parabolically as will their valuations. Price Targets I'd expect to see >$87 per share by or before the end of 2022. As for right now, the stock is overbought on rather silly news (an upgrade from hold to buy). I don't expect the present price to stand over the next few months and would expect a trend down to the mid-sixties. My new buy target, however, I've raised to $65. Anything below $60 I'd consider a very strong buy.
NYSE:SOLong
by forever_green
Southern Company looks to be breaking out of "Something"My last SO idea denoted my overall short-term bearishness in the stock and my downward arrow essentially followed perfectly the support of the down trend. I think this trend is over. So far, the daily candle is showing enormous upward momentum. The last time this happened the stock saw a very sharp appreciation before settling on the mid-$60 range. I think this will happen again. I'm going to slow down my accumulation until I see what's happening the rest of December.
NYSE:SOLong
by forever_green
Still Waiting on Southern Company*not investment advise. do your own research and invest at your own risk* $SO is presently in a sell-off. I saw this coming (see my previous idea on SO) but the movement's strength and momentum has surprised me. From what I've read, this doesn't appear to be related to anything significant beyond general market selling and a pervasive over-valuation fear that grips every sector. There have been hiccups with the nuclear project related to Vogtle Unit 3 (surprise...not) but reports I've read have misconstrued the premise. Southern Nuclear self-reported many of the cable non-compliances to the Nuclear Commission. This is a non-issue. Despite this, given the strength of the sell-off, I think we'll have a repeat of last year. Strong selling (probably profit-taking of those who bough early late 2020 - early 2021) going into winter with a noted downward trend until spring of 2022. Now would not be the time to buy up shares, in my opinion. If earnings are reported as strong this might alter my assertion, but the numbers would have to be impressive. Southern's fair value still hovers around $60.00 so any purchase at or below that mark would be acceptable. With less growth and higher risk-free rates (not likely over long term) one could fairly price the stock as low as $53.00 - $48.00. I don't think SO will reach those levels but, if it did, that would be a very strong buy, in my opinion. I'm looking for a downward move to around $58.00 - $60.00 at which point I'll start buying again. I'm short.
NYSE:SOShort
by forever_green
What Does The Market Future Look Like? Look HereSo far Southern Company has moved with the market. Historics say we may move down a little more before moving up by November. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 63.16. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 63.81 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.1% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.235% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.544% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 13 trading bars; half occur within 23 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:SOLong
by StockSignaler
Hurry Up and Wait on SO***None of my ideas, this on included, are financial advise. Tread cautiously. Markets are know to enjoy punishing the un-wary.*** Previous Idea, Profit, and Short-term Movement I've shared a couple ideas on Southern Company and thus far the stock movement has been very predictable; moving around earnings and payouts. Based on my previous idea (linked), I just made a nice profit on Feb 2022, $65 strike calls for SO. I think from here we'll move back to near fair value ($60-$61) over the next month or two. This is a good place to enter a short position. I don't like buying puts as risk is high but a covered call would be an acceptable position, in my view. Catalyst for Change My belief is this equity will move as it has for the past year-and-a-half until the Fed tapers bond purchases. I believe once a taper is announced there will be a flight to blue-chip/high capital asset companies (like SO and other utilities). This may manifest as an increase in price of SO stock that breaks its recently established trend. (for example, see price action from late 2018 to early 2020). Lifetime Valuation This should not be construed as a bearish flag on SO's stock, overall. This idea only shares my thoughts on the probable trajectory of the stock in the short term. My overall valuation on this company is very bullish; specifically given the considerable upside with their Vogtle nuclear project.
NYSE:SOShort
by forever_green
Possible SO Buying PointMomentum on the daily is moving favorably though the stock didn't hold the engulfing pattern. RSI corroborates the downward trend with most recent standing of "oversold" as it touches the 200 SMA. I'm looking at a bounce off the 200 SMA over the next couple weeks to hold the upward trajectory SO's held since May 2020. If we can't hold the 200 SMA this week I'm looking for a downturn toward ~$57.00 I'll be looking to add to my position this week if things still look relatively strong Thursday.
NYSE:SOLong
by forever_green
Southern Company Stock Analysis (SO)Basic Facts: Southern Company is itself a holding organization who owns all of the Common Stock for Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Mississippi Power, and Southern Gas; all of which are publically operating utilities. Southern’s other holdings include Natural Gas Distribution, Marketing, Wholesale services, and pipeline investments. Growth Factors: The total customers served under Southern’s (SO) area are about 4.5 million. This looks to be one of the largest areas of growth for the next decade. The recent pandemic has forced many people to re-evaluate what they want out of life. Contemplation has resulted in a mass exodus from northern states to southern states (see census data) as many freedom sensitive and financially cognizant individuals seek more accommodative socio-economic environments. I see this trend to continue as COVID transforms from a persistent threat to a source of past-trauma and driver of personal reflection. The trend of “realization” will, in all likelihood, continue and grow to a nexus in the next couple years. This may well increase Southern’s customer base by an order of magnitude over the next decade. The number of customers will grow until economic pressures force northern and liberal states to seek conformity with their more free counterparts. I think these pressures will need to persist for ten years before changes in these sates become apparent enough to soften demand for family and individual relocation. Demand for Green Energy isn’t subsiding. Common notions of “green” energy typically involve: Solar, wind, and natural gas. Southern has a large presence in the Natural Gas industry along with very accommodative infrastructure and buy-back policies for solar generation. Political environment and other entities with SO’s area (Transmission entities, EMC’s, and Power Co-ops) are also accommodative to Solar Generation through buy-backs and Green Energy purchasing programs. These will bode well against the persistent narrative in favor of green energy. SO’s interest in the Vogtle Units 3 and 4 also paints a very good picture for the future of net-zero carbon emitting generation. Commonly repeated negativity surrounding the numerous cost over-runs and delays surrounding construction of the Units are, in my opinion, vastly over-stated. The new Vogtle Units are state-of-the-art (new cooling technology and new style Westinghouse alternator). Most of what’s being done at Vogtle has never been done before in scope, scale, or timeline. The bankruptcy of Westinghouse (the manufacturer of the alternator used for Units 3 & 4) also stretched expected completion date. Considering these pressures, miscalculations in costs and timelines are to be expected. However, I believe most investors have priced in delays within the present stock’s price (~$61.00 per share). I treat the inclusion of expanding Nuclear generation in my bullish assessment of Southern’s stock because, as the amount of traditional green energy (Solar and Wind) increases as a percentage of effective generation, it will become painfully clear the system becomes more fragile in exponential proportion to the amount of “green” generation expressed. Protecting the system against itself when this proportion of expressed green generation is large remains an evolving science. Many substations are adding high-voltage reactors to provide inertial frames for fault detecting relays but this will likely not be enough to appropriately protect the electric system. This will make classic rotating machines (steam turbines) necessary to provide base-generation and system stability (this is not opinion, but fact). Nuclear power is also cheaper to generate though maintenance costs can be substantive (there are few things more complex than steam turbines). This will create an economic pressure for Southern to generate more power through their nuclear units as other utilities looking to buy power off the wholesale markets demand the cheaper energy (this is my opinion). Monetary Environment: In the age of Central Bank debt jubilation it’s always appropriate to consider the actions of the Federal Reserve into one’s evaluation of American equities. This is no different for my evaluation of Southern Company. The Fed has provided markets with liquidity ad nauseam. This was true even before the repo crisis of summer 2019 and the liquidity crisis of March 2020. Looking at the chart, one can see the precipitous rise of SO’s stock price throughout 2019 as the Effective Federal Funds Rate (in purple) decreased rapidly in the aftermath of the “taper tantrum” in 2018. As the Fed has driven down the effective interest rate and costs of capital, investors can expect more capital appreciation for each dollar invested into financial markets. This has resulted in speculative waves in tech and other growth sectors which themselves have bred things like “meme stocks” and ESG investors. Narrative and “hopium” have become more significant than cash flow and asset valuations. This fact makes my present valuation of most equities included within the S&P remarkably over-bought and “bubbly” (death-gaze on TSLA). Over time, debt can never remain solvent at the present levels. The Fed will have to taper eventually and, once it does, capital will fly at super-sonic speeds away from growth investments (Amazon, Apple, Tesla, NVidia, and the tech industry as a whole) to value investments, like SO. This will not necessarily result in a rise in the stock’s price but those who are already positioned in value stocks once the Fed tapers will sleep easily. Stock Price: I expect the utility sector to languish through the summer as monetary conditions will remain accommodating throughout the rest of 2021. I don’t expect a rise of the stock price above $67.00 throughout the summer with no breakout above $70.00 for 2021. The short-term trend of SO is bearish with the equity in a noticeable downtrend. However, SO is approaching the lower bound of a regression trend with a buy price of $60.50. A longer-term regression trend shows a bullish trend with the present price approaching the lower bound of that trend as well. SO will need to hold $60.00 as a resistance. If this resistance fails the next price target would be $57.35. My longerm (3-10 years) valuations is: BULLISH
NYSE:SOLong
by forever_green
5
BUY to SOUTHERN CO. DailyHello traders, SOUTHERN CO. is in a fake bearish phase with doji bull accompanied by a rejection of buyers and a low volume of purchases made. The TIMEFRAME M1 we see a dragon bull who wants to break the Vwap, it can be broken in force with a large volume of past purchase. Very likely to go to the next high and close the bearish gap (See TIMEFRAME H4). And if the buyers are really back, we can breakout a resistance to get to the next high. Please LIKE & FOLLOW, thank you!
NYSE:SOShort
by stephanelibatd
Falling WedgeFalling wedges can be bullish if a stock breaks up and out of the wedge. I think SO had an earnings miss as well Rising wedges are almost always bearish and are caused by irrational exuberance..too much buying without healthy pull backs. This all catches up with the stock eventually when no buyers are left...ie WDAY fell out of a rising wedge recently. Many more like KLAC. The stock usually recovers but beware that a stock can fall the entire width of the rising wedge, or it may just take a quick dip out and recover with ease. It depends on the stock "The only man who makes no mistakes is the man who never does anything. Do not be afraid to make mistakes, providing you do not make the same one twice.” Not a recommendation
NYSE:SO
by lauralea