$SPCE is nearing the bottom of its multi-year channel! 200% +$SPCE has been very predictable in the past and has the potential to bounce over 200% here as it's nearing the bottom of a very long channel.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. , an integrated aerospace company, develops human spaceflight for private individuals and researchers in the United States. It also manufactures air and space vehicles. The company's spaceship operations include commercial human spaceflight, flying commercial research, and development payloads into space. In addition, it engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testing, and post-flight maintenance of spaceflight vehicles. The company was founded in 2017 is headquartered in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
1SPCE trade ideas
Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) Near Bottom Of Multi-Year Channel🔎Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., an integrated aerospace company, develops human spaceflight for private individuals and researchers in the United States. It also manufactures air and space vehicles. The company's spaceship operations include commercial human spaceflight, flying commercial research, and development payloads into space. In addition, it engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testing, and post-flight maintenance of spaceflight vehicles. The company was founded in 2017 is headquartered in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
Swing trade on SPCE
After the big drop it had, and this consolidation process, it could be a good trade to try to close the gap, a good stop loss is almost guaranteed victory.
The price from my point of view can be seen stopped at the sma200, which would be a 25% profit from now on, wait to break the bearish line with volume
40 year old Virgin Galactic trendlineI've stayed away from this stock mainly because of it's horrible financials and have seen this
trend line (pictured) hold up many times now. I am banking on that again as we are off the highs
quite a bit (nearly 70% decline). Also, we are in a falling wedge that is meeting that trend line.
This adds extra sauce to this play for me.. I am a swing trader/investor and a fib guy. I have
labeled as well a 618 retrace ($16) of the entire stock as a possibility of low in case the trend line
breaks. Happy trading. Pure technical play.
Why SPCE will go up.Yes, Branson did unethical things to the company, luring traders to buy the stock after the successful flight. Then dumping 500m spo. It was liquid then, so i guess there was no other opportunuty to do so.
Nevertheless the company is unique and there is no other public competitors for this sector.
Reasons to go up:
1. Fundamentals are much better compared to after covid times. There was a complete uncertainty about the stock. But it still traded in 15-20 range. Even in complete fear there were believers, satisfying demand.
2. The sentiment is incredibly bearish, no sellers left.
3. Huge accumulation zones. Big players entered the 15-20 range, they protect their positions. This is 101 why VPVR zones and levels work.
4. Do opposite what banks say. They have incentives to manipulate the price as they have the influence to do so. They can accumulate positions, generating better price. BTW JP Morgan's target downgrade caused little to no fluctuations in price. There may be little to no sellers.
SPCE: Nobody saw an offering coming! Well played, Virgin Galactic!
SPCE is far away from being done. Another 23% down to 23 is expected in the incoming weeks. I'm expecting the gap from May to be filled before our next move up. Those who bought this at the top thinking it will go to 80, like I said in my previous post, the run to 80 will happen but should take some time. The company has proven itself on its path forward. Their commercial fights will soon take off and more investors will pour in again. But for the time being, buckle up! This ship is going down.
SPCE: Is there any hope?Let's see! Weekly charts shows that we are right at the trendline and the bounce we saw today could be a bull run continuation signal.
But, on daily we can adjust the trendline and argue that price has not bottomed yet and has another 7% to drop before any real reversal. For a reversal to happen, we need to follow the volume profile drawn on the daily chart for the bearish trendline to breakout with sufficient support.
On daily you can also see the volume for Friday's sell-off, which is relatively larger than any other day in the past two months. That could be interpreted as the selling climax for our bullish scenario.
Bullish Indicators:
Bounce off of Weekly trendline
Daily RSI near 30
Weekly chart shows similar volume changes in the past that lead to a new bull run
Bearish Indicators:
MACD cross down
Daily trendline points to another 7% drop
There is no near term catalyst for Virgin Galactic
Final call: Leaning Long
[SPCE] Market maker here. Again. This symbol is very popular. Maybe too popular. In this case, market makers always want to play with retail investors.
The question is simple - where is the money? If more money is in short positions we will go higher if more people hold the long positions market maker is going to freeze the symbol or will go below to take their stop losses and money.
No fundamental base here at all. Just pump and dump game.
My opinion is a short position is too risky. But not a bad idea is put options. If you can wait for 2-3 quarters, you will earn money in any case. But the best way is just to wait some time here to understand the plan of big sharks.
Keep in mind, currently, we wait for the decision of the government of the U.S.A. about Biden's $3.5 trillion plan. Any result will be a good argument for big sharks to drop or pump this stock...
// I have no position here, but I'm ready to buy it when I will understand the rules of the game here.
Virgin Galactic Friday, 15 October 2021
19:27 PM (WIB)
Virgin Galactic is getting near to the base ground support lines. It was suddenly fall deep from $24 into $18.50. At the moment the price bounce up to $20. I need to focus on Virgin Galactic now for finding the best spot to enter the market. Stochastic + RSI shows the downtrend is very low. But it's still possible to touch the ground support when Stochastic Lines hit below 0.
Best regards,
RyodaBrainless
"Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading.
Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same.
They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side!
I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share!
I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me!
RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share!
I experienced the same situation over and over again:
NASDAQ:WKHS
NASDAQ:TLRY
NYSE:SPCE
Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more:
Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as:
1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing,
2-The phase transition turning point, and
3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions.
I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well:
Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."
We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities.
A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence
Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert.
Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do.
Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
Keep learning and practicing
Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper.
Ask other people how you're doing
Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism.
Question what you know
Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias.
Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again.
Conclusion:
you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
Reference Articles:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
psycnet.apa.org
www.britannica.com
www.verywellmind.com
www.psychologytoday.com
SPCE. Long-term long play ▶ Targets & stop-loss are set out on chart.
Majority of profit to be taken at red line.
Red zones are probable area of resistance/consolidation.
Stop-loss will be moved to highlighted area in the coming weeks pending on markets/indexes confirmation.
These thoughts are my own ideas based off my own analysis. Please do your own research before putting your own money into the markets.
SPCE Falling Wedge ScenarioSPCE is currently in a falling wedge pattern that can best be seen on the 1HR chart.
This is still a bearish development showing lower highs and lower lows, but a breakout above the wedge could signal a +/- 20% move to near $28.
From my experience, falling wedges typically break to the bottom for a final sell off (capitulation) before they break upward. That is not always the case, and these are very hard to trade as stop losses have to be moved lower and lower. As long as the price is best contained in the falling wedge, the trade is in play presenting a worsening risk:reward for longs.
The best way to trade this would be to wait for a break above the top line of the wedge and then enter when the price comes back down to the top of the wedge (retest). This can be difficult as well as the price may retest the top of the wedge a few times before finally deciding to go up, so again it's another difficult scenario for a stop loss as the top of the wedge lowers as time goes by.
Place see my related SPCE ideas.
Virgin Galactic.Continuation.Correction according to new data.
Virgin Galactic.
My thoughts about the company, industry.
A high-risk asset.
The desire to acquire a part of the company appears only if the profit from the asset is not less than the profit with the same risk from other assets that we can acquire. If the risk is greater -> premium risk is paid -> bigger estimated profit. The risk of the company consists of systematic (the risk of the economy as a whole) and diversifiable risk. It is believed that diversifiable risk is fully diversified (disappears when the company is added to a portfolio) -> Risk premium is paid only for systemic risk. In this case, since there are no similar companies, diversification is relative. -> More risk and potential profit (due to the presence of unsystematic risk.). The systematic risk, in this case, is also relative because there is little that can greatly change the situation in this industry (unless, of course, you expect a new great depression). In general, I wanted to tell you that this asset, in my opinion, is less dependent on the economy as a whole than other assets(the risk premium is smaller), but here we are paid for our unsystematic risk. (balance in the universe)( This is a feature of this asset, in my opinion.)(And I like this feature because something strange is happening in the economy right now.)
In my opinion, nothing good should happen in the near future. (Many different factors can lead to a drop of 20%, as well as their absence since the value of the company is determined by its payments, which are less and less over time (the time value of money), then there is no information about the next payments, we postpone them -> it reduces the value of the company. The growth of oil can become this factor (do not forget about other conglomerate companies)).
Disclaimer/
On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.