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1TSLA trade ideas

The TSLA forecast. TSLA will go down?Hello' Analysis of the TSLA market suggests that it is poised for a selling opportunity. To identify the target, we use a straightforward approach. The inducement line serves as a trigger for trade activation, while the fear value gap indicates potential reversal or stop-loss points. Manual orders are placed based on resistance levels and activation energy. News Tesla TSLA shares have been hit mightily amid recent market volatility eith the EV giant's stock down 35% year to date. That said, at $262, TSLA is still setting on gains of over +40% in the last two years which has roughly matched the S&P 500 but has trailed the nasdaq,s +57%. It's all about my thought. What you think about "TSLA"? Drop in comment. Thanks.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by David_1_8
1
TSLA : A Brief Respite or the Start of a Comeback (Wednesday 12)Overview: At the time of writing, the stock is hovering around $215, barely holding on to that level. The next significant support aligns with the lower boundary of my descending channel, around $210. If that level fails, I believe we could see further downside—potentially even a move below $200 if selling pressure intensifies. Technical Observations: 1. **Descending Channel** My chart shows TSLA trading within a **downward-sloping channel**. The stock is currently near the lower portion of that channel, suggesting that if it loses support at $210, it may continue sliding along the lower band. 2. **Key Support & Resistance Levels** - $210: This level is both a psychological round number and the lower bound of the channel. If it doesn’t hold, further downside is likely. - $232: This is a notable resistance level near the channel’s upper boundary. Breaking above $232 (especially on strong volume) could be a signal of a short-term reversal or a relief rally. 3. **Indicators (RSI & TRAMA)** - **RSI**: Currently in oversold territory, which sometimes indicates a potential bounce. However, oversold can remain oversold if momentum is strong. - **TRAMA** (my chosen trend/momentum indicator): Still suggests a strong downward trend. Any bounce could be short-lived unless broader conditions change. 4. **Potential Bearish Continuation vs. Bullish Breakout** - **Bearish Continuation**: If TSLA cannot hold $210 and continues to close below that channel line, I believe a drop below $200 becomes increasingly likely. - **Bullish Breakout**: In the unlikely event of a swift rebound above $232, it would signal a break of the channel’s upper boundary and potentially open the door to a short-term rally. My Personal Trading Perspective: The slight bounce might just be a short-term relief rally, where buyers step in to pick up shares at a perceived discount. However, if there’s no follow-through and volume remains lackluster, the rally can fizzle out quickly, leaving room for further declines. - Long-Term Entry: I’d personally look for a strong breakout and daily close above $232 (and above the upper 2nd deviation line) before adding to any long-term positions. That would give me more confidence that the downward trend is reversing. - Short-Term Long: I’m watching for a retest of $210. If it holds and shows signs of a bounce, I might take a short-term long position with a potential profit target around $220. I would keep a tight stop-loss, though, because if $210 fails, it could drop quickly. My report is similar to yesterday. My thought process has not changed. Disclaimer: This is my personal trading perspective and not formal investment advice. Always do your own research, double check my findings, and manage your risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by CrayonGuy
Tesla Stock Analysis: Nearly 50% wiped offTesla Stock Analysis: Navigating Key Support and Resistance Levels. Tesla (TSLA) has experienced significant volatility, with its stock price retreating nearly 50% from its all-time high (ATH). The last major rally, which began on October 23, 2024, at approximately $211, propelled the stock to an ATH of $487 on December 18, 2024. However, since reaching this peak, Tesla has been on a downward trajectory, breaching key Fibonacci retracement levels. Recently, the stock fell below the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, reaching $250 before staging a minor bounce. Despite this rebound, Tesla is currently struggling beneath a confluence of a descending trendline and a horizontal support-turned-resistance zone, creating a challenging environment for bullish momentum. Key Technical Factors to Watch: 📉 Bearish Pressure Below Resistance The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal resistance is currently capping Tesla’s recovery attempts. A rejection at this level could reinforce selling pressure and push the stock toward retesting lower support zones.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ForexClinik
Effective inefficiencyStop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order. Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name. Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it. For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness? Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types. Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones. Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here. Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy. Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”. Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so. What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses. Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions. So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero. The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate: Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L) Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market. For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (<60%) with a ratio of 1.5:1, or increase the ratio (>1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself. Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find. Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa. For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”. In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other. Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy. For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small. As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline. For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another. In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about: - Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies. - Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price. - Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others. - No leverage. I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy. In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
TSLA: What Happened?After reaching all time high of $488.50 on 18 Dec '24, Tesla has been systematically dropping making lower lows. So far it made a local low at $325.10 which is -33% from ATH. One might intuitively assume that Tesla’s CEO, with significant administrative resources at his disposal, would drive the stock to outperform on a longer period. This narrative held true, particularly after it became evident that the Republican candidate had won the U.S. election. Traders saw Musk’s association with that political circle as a strong buy signal, believing that many others would definitely jump in as well. As a result, price broke out of the resistance driving demand and pushing the stock higher. However, this effect did not last very long as many would have expected. WHAT HAPPENED? Tesla was once the dominant force in the electric vehicle market, both in the United States and abroad. However, its sales are now collapsing, driven by a combination of political and technological factors — many of which are tied to Elon Musk’s increasingly unusual behavior. The Sales Decline Since January 2024 Tesla’s sales have plummeted, particularly in Europe. Recent figures paint a bleak picture: Germany: 60% drop France: 63% drop Norway: 38% drop Sweden: 44% drop In the U.S., while the decline hasn’t been as drastic, Tesla’s share of the EV market is shrinking. What’s Causing Tesla’s Troubles? Several key factors contribute to Tesla’s struggles. Increased Competition Tesla’s early-mover advantage is disappearing. Established automakers like BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai and Kia, as well as newer EV startups like Rivian — now offer electric vehicles with longer range, faster charging, and more luxurious features. As a result, consumers have more choices, and Tesla is no longer the default option for EV buyers. A Cooling EV Market Some of the decline can be attributed to a broader slowdown in EV sales, particularly in Europe, where government subsidies have been scaled back. However, this alone does not explain Tesla’s sharp losses, especially compared to its competitors, many of whom are still seeing growth. For what Europeans could not forgive Elon? Musk's increasingly polarizing political stance like aligning with far-right figures or engaging with controversial accounts online — has alienated large segments of Tesla’s customer base in Europe and other liberal democracies. For a brand once associated with innovation and sustainability, Musk’s actions have tarnished Tesla’s reputation, particularly among progressive and tech-savvy buyers who once formed its core audience. Investor Confidence is Fading Tesla’s stock has been highly volatile, with investors growing uneasy about the company’s future. Over the past month, the stock price has declined, reflecting broader concerns about the company’s leadership and strategic direction. The Cybertruck’s Underwhelming Launch The Cybertruck, once hyped as a revolutionary product, has failed to live up to expectations. Instead of broad appeal, it has become a niche product, often associated with Musk’s most fervent and politically charged supporters. Rather than expanding Tesla’s customer base, the Cybertruck seems to have further divided it. The Bigger Issue: Musk’s Brand Overshadowing Tesla Tesla’s current crisis highlights a broader problem: when a CEO’s personal brand becomes larger than the company itself, it can have devastating consequences. Musk’s antics — once seen as part of his “genius entrepreneur” image — are now actively harming Tesla’s sales and market position. Many people who previously invested in Tesla stock and even owned a Tesla vehicle, they've since distanced themselves, not only due to concerns over vehicle quality but also because they no longer want to be associated with Elon. And while some of Musk’s supporters claim that Tesla will be just fine, the numbers tell a different story. Sales are falling, stock prices are shaky, and confidence in the brand is slipping. The 33% drop from ATH might be just the beginning of a larger cycle of selloff.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
30
If you are living in a TESLA Bubble, the HYPE is over...Some countries across of the world, specially in Europe, some people are vandalizing Teslas, google it, it's not being covered on mainstream news so it won't provoke an influence to other people do the same, i was going to buy the new Y model its beautiful and amazing, not anymore i don't want a swastika painted on the hood... used Teslas are mounting and prices of used Teslas are falling worldwide, the stock has been super overvalued due to hype, look at the market cap, no longer has a reason to stay there, the hype is finished, this stock is going for big correction. Im not in a short position, but i closed my longs. Elon should never got into politics.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by veelez7
1
Charging Toward Highs!Tesla has recently demonstrated bullish momentum, with a notable gap forming around the $280 level, indicating renewed investor interest. This technical setup suggests the potential for a significant upward move, with the stock eyeing the $373.04 weekly resistance level as a pivotal point. A successful breakout above this threshold could propel TSLA toward the $414.50 resistance, offering an attractive risk-to-reward ratio for investors.​ Why TSLA Could Accelerate to $414.50: Technical Indicators: TSLA's current price of $292.98 is approaching the 50-day moving average of $300.04, and a sustained move above this average could signal a bullish trend continuation. ​ barchart.com Analyst Insights: Analysts have identified TSLA as a potential rebound candidate for 2025, noting its inclusion among stocks that could recover after previous declines. ​ Financial Performance: In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla reported revenues nearing $3.5 billion, with a net income of $238 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $503 million, reflecting robust operational performance.​ Strategic Initiatives: The company's recent pricing of $700 million in senior notes due 2030 indicates a strategic approach to strengthening its capital structure, potentially supporting future growth initiatives.​ Key Levels to Monitor: Support: $280 (gap level), $249.99 (stop-loss)​ Breakout Trigger: $373.04 (weekly resistance)​ Target: $414.50 (major resistance)​ If TSLA maintains its bullish momentum and decisively breaks through the $373.04 resistance with substantial volume, it could be on track for a significant rally toward $414.50. However, investors should remain vigilant, as the stock's current price is below key moving averages, and market conditions can change rapidly. Implementing a stop-loss at $249.99 is advisable to manage potential downside risks. NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
TSLA Technical Analysis – Reversal in Progress?Market Structure & Key Levels * Current Price: $278.53 * Support: $265, $250 * Resistance: $292.5, $300, $310 TSLA has recently rebounded from a demand zone around $265, showing early signs of a potential reversal. Multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) shifts indicate a possible transition from a bearish to a bullish market structure. Reversal Zone Analysis TSLA has entered a potential reversal zone between $278 - $292.5. If price sustains above $278, upside momentum toward $300 and $310 could unfold. A failure to hold $278 could send it back to retest the $265 support level. Options & GEX Analysis * IVR: 84.1 * IVx Avg: 80.3 * GEX: Green (bullish positioning) * Put Walls: $265, $250 * Call Walls: $292.5, $300, $310 Options flow indicates bullish sentiment, with increasing call interest above $292.5 and strong put support at $265. Trading Plan & Strategy Bullish Scenario (Preferred) * Entry: Above $278 with strong volume confirmation * Target: $292.5, then $300 * Stop-Loss: Below $272 Bearish Scenario (Less Likely) * Entry: If price rejects the $292.5 - $300 zone * Target: $265 * Stop-Loss: Above $295 Options Trade Idea * Bull Call Spread: Buy $280 Calls, Sell $300 Calls (April Expiry) * Credit Put Spread: Sell $270 Puts, Buy $260 Puts Final Thoughts TSLA is showing early signs of a reversal, but needs to hold above $278 for confirmation. Watch for strength toward $292.5 and $300. If price struggles at resistance, a retest of $265 is possible. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
TSLA: Down 44% – Is This the Bottom?Tesla has been absolutely crushed since hitting its all-time high at $485. A 44% drop isn’t shocking after such a huge rally, but it’s still a brutal move. Now, we’re back into support, sitting near the level of Wave 1 – so far, nothing completely out of the ordinary. Maybe to counter some of the selling pressure, Elon Musk tweeted yesterday that he sees a 1000% price increase in the next five years – if the work is put in. Take it however you want. The tweet probably gave TSLA a short-term boost, since Musk’s words always spark some level of hope. But we’ve seen this game before – big claims, and sometimes, reality doesn’t follow through. Technically speaking: As long as Tesla holds the order block between $240 and $260, or at least the current support, things don’t look too bad. But if that level breaks, things could get ugly – and $150 might not be far off. For now, this remains one to watch.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by stromm