TESLA Stock Forum (MIL:1TSLA) – TradingView Minds

9 minutes ago

320 is probably where it might cap out on monday trading sess

1 hour ago

Why Past Performance IS Indicative of Future Performance.

A lot of times you hear this statement 'Past performance is not indicative of future results.' The reality is that its actually not as simple as that, every coin is ever so slightly different. Some coins will land more on one side than others over lets say '1000 flips', and if there is a coin that historically has landed more in favour of heads and the standard deviation is statistically significant enough, then the likelihood is you can expect more heads than tails over the next 1000 flips due to some minor defect in the weighting of the coin. So although 'past performance is not indicative of future results.' is a lovely sound byte...it does not reflect performance in the physical world, like most things that are modelled. 'Past performance is not indicative of future results' is something typically used by banks and 'wealth managers' who want to cap their liability if their 'inability' ends up losing you your lifetime savings. My point is, someone who has a 72% average win rate over 7 years, is likely doing something well. Thats not to say he/she cant lose, but the probability is weighted more in favour of good future performance than bad. So I think a more accurate sound byte would be 'Past performance is highly correlated with future performance, but like anything in life..its not guaranteed'.

Coins Aren’t Perfectly Fair:

Yes—real coins can have microscopic imperfections, uneven weight distribution, or edge wear that can bias the result over thousands of flips. There are studies (e.g., Persi Diaconis et al.) that show small but real physical biases in coin flips.

Empirical Evidence > Theory in Practice:

In complex systems like trading, past performance is often the best available proxy for skill, edge, or process quality. A 72% win rate over 7 years isn’t just luck—it implies repeatable decision-making and possibly an informational or structural edge.

“Past Performance…” is a Legal Cover:

Absolutely—it’s a CYA (cover your ass) phrase. It’s less a statistical statement and more of a liability disclaimer. It’s not meant to be interpreted rigidly outside its legal context.

Correlation ≠ Certainty:

So, the truth is—“highly correlated but not guaranteed.” Would be a more accurate and intellectually honest statement.