Elliott Waves Suggests USDMXN Can Be A Nice ShortHey folks,
In this article, I’ll give you an update on USDMXN, which we’ve talked about before. You probably noticed that the Mexican Peso (MXN) has been quite strong for the past couple of years, mainly because of higher interest rates compared to other places, USDMXN short was a good carry trade.
However, things have started to shift a bit recently. Inflation in the US went up a bit due to rising energy costs, and some folks thought the Federal Reserve (FED) might keep a tough stance (hawkish) on monetary policy. This pushed the US Dollar higher along with yields.
But now, there’s a new element in the mix – the geopolitical tension between Hamas and Israel. This situation can make the markets super jumpy and volatile. I’m not so sure if the FED can keep its hawkish stance in such a shaky environment. Keep in mind, during a conflict or war, a government might ease up on its tough policies to fund the war effort and get cheap financing.
So, I’m wondering if it might be the right time to expect USDMXN to continue its downward trend. In fact, the pair has dropped this week, especially after markets opened with some gaps in various assets.
From an Elliott Wave point of view, we can see a decent corrective rise from recent lows, a clear fourth wave move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance. We’re seeing a turnaround from there, and if we break key rising trendline, more bears could join the party. This makes sense since the overall trend is still bearish as long as the price stays below the 2022 trendline resistance. So, I think a fifth wave down might be just around the corner, and it could happen quite quickly, especially if the US Dollar’s trend changes, which is possible if stocks would stay in risk-on mode till end of the week.
MXNUSD trade ideas
Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5 from technical point of view and by Elliott wave theory.
USDMXN shorts are doing very well as we mentioned and highlighted on October 12, when we spotted a corrective recovery in wave (4).
As you can see today, USDMXN turned nicely down from projected resistance and it can be headed much lower as bulls failed to break above the daily trendline resistance in October. So this was seen as a corrective and temporary bounce; wave (4), which puts wave (5) in action after broken trendline support, so weakness is ready to resume, ideally down to 16.00.
Pmi's Will Make Or Break Usd/MXnPmi's Will Make Or Break Usd/MXn
Projected to come lower than expected it could be the signal that tips the market back into recession fears
Heavy reaction is expected here as goods balance and trade have been circumvented through Mexico as of late
Technically we are at a historic bounce area, a decent area of demand we are leaning towards a bullish bias with the trigger being any strength off this level
USDMXNPresently we are in a profit taking season against the dollar that has sponsored a bearish outlook. We have a change of character and break of structure that informs our bearish outlook targeting the unmitigated demand at 16.76 price handle. We are anticipating activation of our sell li it orders at 18 price handle.
MEXICAN PESO STRENGTH I've initiated a short trade on this exotic pair, aiming for a target range of 17.45 to 17.50. The market dynamics seem favorable for a bearish move in this trade, and I'll be closely monitoring the price action for potential opportunities. If you're curious about how this trade develops, stick around for regular updates. Remember, trade wisely and manage your risk!
Usd/Mxn Buy IdeaThe Trend is up...
We have a pullback... We have a double bottom on the day chart...
If you buy Usd/Mxn you are buying in a uptrend...
But there is one thing!! This is a exotic pair and you need to use extreme risk management because it can shoot up and down in gigantic waves...
So please trade this one at your own risk..
Good Luck
USDMXN :BUY DAY HIGH MADE FIRST-TAYLOR TRADING11 Months: First close below sma with Pin ball Buys
3days: Made 1-2 Pin ball Buys
Intraday divergence and expecting test of previous Low and continuation during US session
Look for Entry Pattern on Small Time frame:
15minutes already showing Divergence, Further 5 Minutes should Follow suit with range and then divergence, currently on strong bearish.
PATIENCE.................
MXNUSD ready to dumpHi traders
We can see an on-boing classic distribution on MXNUSD daily chart.
RSI is in a downtrend which shows that there's less and less strength in the market.
When it comes to the price action, lower highs and lower lows suggests that we are about to get a mark-down and it may happen pretty soon.
3 targets (take profit levels) for shorts are shown on the chart.
Good luck
USDMXN: Channel Up calling for pullback buy.USDMXN has converted the 1D MA200 to support and is rising steadily inside a Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 54.479, MACD = 0.196, ADX = 35.456) so once the current pullback towards the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel Up, is completed, we will buy again and target a new +5.93% rise (TP = 18.8000). A 1D candle close under the 1D MA50, will be bearish, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 17.000).
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The 18.5000 level is more important than you think!The USDMXN 18.5000 level has capped the rally in recent weeks. And you can see the strong descending trend line capping the market. Even the rally this week has tried to keep a "lower high" but we think this is just a byproduct of the descending trend line. A break of the 18.5000 level would target 18.8700, but 20.2100 would be more likely. While above the 200dma we expect a break of resistance.
You should keep a close eye on the RSI (lower panel) on a breakout. If price moves higher, the RSI could be a good gauge to see if the trend will continue with a confirming move higher, or potential divergence which could signal we hit a near term top between 18.8700 to 20.2100.
Looks like it wants to close under the trend line. Looks like we want to break the trend line. 1 hr candle looks like it wants to close on the other side. Could be a good scalp down. If it plays out and you missed it, there is always a retest where the candles closed below. You should have a 2nd opportunity there too.
Good luck out there. Hopefully in the next half hour, we should know if were staying up or down. Protect your bag, set your sl.
Oct 22th, 2023 - USDMXN to 17.77?Last week USDMXN traded between 17.85 and 18.46. Given Banxico's decision to maintain its benchmark policy rate at a record high of 11.25% at its September 2023 meeting, as widely expected, and FED's expectation to hike rates if the economy remains hot... Short term, (weekly) my bias is for dollar weakness. I am looking for dollar strength around the 105.917 DXY handle....
This move could possibly lead to MXN nearing the 17.77 handle for this week.
This is not financial advice by any means, I am not a licenced financial advisor and these are just my points of view of the market.
FX:USDMXN