MXNUSD trade ideas
USDMXN set for a rebound! just not yet!This is my personal take on the upcoming rebound of the MXN peso.
The past few weeks, We have seen how key resistances have failed to stall the dramatic gains of the mexican pesos vs the dollar of over 30%.
By closing on the 17.26 -17.29 mark it will trigger a key important level of support, which could propell the exchange to hit the highest mark since March 2023.
In this case we have two scenarios
A] The rebound at 17.26-17.29 is weak and fails to hit passed the 18.36 resistance level.
Signaling a continuation of the bear market.
B] The rebound passes the 18.37 resistance level. Signaling a second time for a reversal of the bear market.
However the likelyhood of pattern to test a slightly higher price level is absolute.
On the otther hand, if the 17.25 level is broken, the MXN peso is set to be one of the best performing currencies for the rest of the year. Looking to touch new lows such as 14 or even 12 MXN per USD levels and to see the Peso maintain around the 13 - 15 price level for the rest of the year. Levels not seen never since 2014 - 2015 respectively.
The rate will probably leave Mexico hurting economically as the governent will need to step in to ease the high exchange rate which will leave Mexico uncompetitive and increase inflation to new highs. The 2024 will see the Mexican peso trying to regain the 17-18 mark with mix results.
This should secure the MXN as one of the best mid and long term in FX markets.
Usd/Mxn Buy Idea From Weekly And Monthly SupportUsd/Mxn is at a Extreme Level of support.
Usd/Mxn has bounced from this level of support on the 15 min time frame.
The Idea is to buy this trade and put my stop loss under the daily candle.
Im using risk management and I will have 3 trades with 3 take profit areas.
It will fun for weeks...
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Peso Rips to 7-year Highs - USD/MXN Testing Support
USD/MXN has broken the yearly opening-range with price now probing below the 2017 lows at 17.4515 - watch the weekly close.
A break lower keeps the focus on the 2016 lows, which converge on the 25% parallel near ~ 17.0505 .
Resistance eyed with the median-line / February low close around 17.9490
Michael Boutros , Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Twitter: MBForex
@MBForex
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs.
However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%.
The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050.
For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
usdmxnLooking at usdmxn here i'm seeing a rejection formed with a Bearish OB on the Daily time frame. with Consolidating in a Triangle formation where price has finally broke and closed below this structure.formation At the same time we are breaking A major support area where we can see price continue to drop to the downside!!
This is for information and demo purposes only! please feel free to comment below and let me know your feed back on this or any one of my trade ideas shared!
Disclaimer - past profits don't guarantee future results, trading is risky and you can loose 100% of your account balance! Risk management is critical when you decide to trade in the forex markets
USD/MXNThe price that moves within a bullish reaction zone seems to have broken down, however it quickly returned to shoot out above the OB, thereby confirming a false breakout or liquidity grab.
The above is usually the prelude to a strong upward movement, so if you are looking for long positions, the correct thing to do would be to look for confirmation in the minor time frames.
I think in principle I would go to look for the 18.2
MXN BUY MXN is a ROLLER coaster of a market and is not one to mess around with but is very fun to trade
Structure right now is lookking long and this is a possible position that could be taken
However MXN likes to move quickly and take people out fast then reverse so its a very risky market that you have to be patient with
USDMXN : Bullish Continuation Priced nicely respected a key level of support on the daily time frame. The pair has experienced a bullish movement since respecting support.
We expect to see a bullish continuation for the pair as price heads towards our initial target for this setup (18.94617).
What are your thoughts ?
Do you agree with my analysis ?