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Mexican Peso/US Dollar

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(USDMXN) Analyzing the Impact Mexican Peso Depreciation1994-2024 Past Trends and Future Projections Assessment of Former Mexican Presidents' Management of Peso Depreciation Against the US Dollar Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León: Presidential Period: December 1, 1994 – November 30, 2000 Depreciation Peak: $10.75 USD/MXN Time to Peak: 1492 days Summary: Zedillo's term saw significant economic challenges, including the aftermath of the 1994-peso crisis. Despite efforts to stabilize the economy, the peso depreciated considerably during his tenure, reaching a peak of $10.75 USD/MXN. Vicente Fox Quesada: Presidential Term: December 1, 2000 – November 30, 2006 Depreciation Peak: $11.70 USD/MXN Time to Peak: 1249 days Summary: Fox's administration experienced moderate depreciation of the peso, with a peak rate of $11.70 USD/MXN. His tenure was marked by efforts to improve economic stability and growth. Felipe Calderón: Presidential Term: December 1, 2006 – November 30, 2012 Depreciation Peak: $15.56 USD/MXN Time to Peak: 852 days Summary: Calderón's term saw a more pronounced depreciation of the peso, reaching a peak of $15.56 USD/MXN. Global economic instability and domestic issues influenced this significant depreciation. Enrique Peña Nieto: Presidential Term: December 1, 2012 – November 30, 2018 Depreciation Peak: $22.03 USD/MXN Time to Peak: 1523 days Summary: Peña Nieto's presidency experienced severe depreciation of the peso, with the exchange rate hitting $22.03 USD/MXN. Economic reforms and global market conditions contributed to this peak. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) Presidential Term: December 1, 2018 – November 30, 2024 Depreciation Peak: $25.77 USD/MXN Time to Peak: 517 days Summary: AMLO's administration saw a rapid depreciation of the peso, reaching $25.77 USD/MXN, influenced significantly by the economic impact of COVID-19. Future Outlook: Claudia Sheinbaum (Predicted) Presidential Term: December 1, 2024 – November 30, 2030 Predicted Peak Rate: $30.00-$34.00 USD/MXN Predicted Time to Peak: 1126 days or so. If the current upward trend in peso depreciation continues, an estimate can be made based on historical data from previous presidents. Here's a possible scenario: Projection for Claudia Sheinbaum's Term Average Time to Peak: Using the historical data, the average number of days to reach the peak depreciation can be calculated. The average is approximately 1126 days (1492 + 1249 + 852 + 1523 + 517 = 5633 / 5 = 1126.6). Predicted Depreciation Peak: If the trend continues and considering the impact of recent trends, the peak could potentially surpass previous highs. Estimating conservatively, the peso could reach a new high, possibly around $30 USD/MXN or higher, depending on economic conditions. This projection assumes that global and domestic economic factors continue to influence the peso similarly to past patterns. However, it is important to note that predictions can be highly uncertain and influenced by various unpredictable factors The Bars Pattern (in red) is a visual representation of how the price could behave over the next six years. Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results. 🚀🚀Boost this idea to reach more people like you! 🚀🚀 NFA PLEASE, DYOR/MYOD!! Hope to See your Likes 👍 to Support My Work To Follow All My Ideas, Go to My Profile and Select the Follow Green button 😁 Please Re-Evaluate Before Make Your Last Decisions Check my Profile for more.
Long
by InsightMarket
4
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 44 - USDMXN - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing USDMXN, starting from the 3-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
by Road_2_Funded
I see a bump for the Mexican Peso and then a dive after summerI anticipate the antiglobalism movement will enrich Mexico for cheap labor (unless Trump gets elected then the Peso will melt down due to the tariffs) where China is already passing our own tariffs by exporting to Mexico where it gets a new shiny label and tariffs don't apply. I believe a billionaire has made moves to gather up the trucking and logistic companies in Mexico because of the growth. Afterwards, no matter what, the dollar TVC:DXY will soar to 140-160+ until itself too implodes leading to hyperinflation in the USA which will catalyze an opportunity to move to CBDC's based on social credit scores (negative interest rates). I also see the TTM squeeze executing on all major TF's so a major move is coming!! Usually we see a bounce of the opposite side as a fake breakout, then a squeeze in the opposite direction lasting for 8 TF bars. Multiple consecutive TF's hint at a massive move and alignment
by EmptyEternity
2
Trials and Elections: 3 Market-adjacent events to watch Trump and Hunter Biden Trials Former U.S. President Donald Trump was convicted last week on all counts of falsifying business records. Trump faces sentencing in one month’s time on July 11. Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison, although first-time offenders (or ex-presidents) like Trump are rarely incarcerated. Meanwhile, a jury was sworn in on Monday for a (show?) trial of Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, on gun charges. Mexican Election The Mexican peso continues to fall sharply towards 18.0 per USD, its lowest since October 2023, following results indicating a supermajority win for the Moderna party and its allies in Congress. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Moderna party candidate, won the presidential election by a significant margin. As noted in Reuters, "The peso is underperforming amid growing concerns that the governing coalition's supermajority in the lower house might lead to the implementation of non-market-friendly policies,". Indian Election The Indian rupee plunged past 83.5 per USD, nearing its record-low of 83.7 from April. This movement erased the sharp rally triggered by early vote tallies, as updated counts indicated that incumbent PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to secure a much narrower victory than anticipated. Amidst the election turmoil in the world's largest democracy, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision is also expected this week. In April 2024, the RBI maintained its benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
UsdMex to short,looks like a nice chart to go shortHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Trend looks set ,watching for oppo so short Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Strong peso with long and short opportunitiesThe peso will continue to be a strong currency throughout the year. The country's economy is robust and interest rates will remain high longer than those in the United States. Returning from Europe I see that the same thing happens with respect to the euro. It is not yet time to go long against the Mexican peso. I hope the peso continues to strengthen and only rises for politically important moments. For days close to the presidential elections I see that it could reach 17.25 by the end of May and up to 18.01 starting in June due to the same issue of the elections. I see consolidation but in general the peso will continue to be a strong currency. Reaching values ​​close to the floor of 16.30 So in general short-term sales looking for supports and purchases at moments close to political decisions.
by ehernandeza90
Mexican Peso Navigates Uncertain Monetary Policy LandscapeThe Mexican Peso (MXN) faces a challenging economic landscape characterized by conflicting signals of growth optimism and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming decisions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will heavily influence the Peso's trajectory against the US Dollar (USD). In Mexico, strong economic performance has stirred speculation about a potential interest rate cut by Banxico, contrasting with worries over inflation exceeding targets. This divergence in opinions among analysts could drive short-term fluctuations in the MXN/USD exchange rate. The Fed's recent indications of a possible rate reduction later in 2024, coupled with Mexico's April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release and Banxico's policy decision, are pivotal events that will shape the Peso's direction in the coming weeks. Traders are advised to consider a long (buy) position on USD/MXN, entering at 16.98873 with various target prices (T.P.) and a stop loss (S.L.) level at 15.61102.
Long
by MorMedia