FEPO1! trade ideas
FCPO 23 August 2021 : False Breakout1. False breakout when price opens below previous day support and immediately close back inside the range without rejection.
2. Entry when price close inside the zone.
3. Or entry during pullback rejection.
4. Usually fake breakouts produce large movements. the daily range for FCPO almost 100~130 ticks.
FCPO Trading SchematicThere is 3 type of price reaction towards SnR
i) Rejection
ii) Breakout
iii) False breakout
How to trade (i) rejection @ M15?
1. Price close with reversal CS - long wick
2. M5 has engulfed at least 60%
3. Set Limit order near the neck of close M15 CS.
How to trade (ii) breakout @ M15?
1. Price close outside the SnR
2. 2nd CS also close outside SnR
3. Entry after rejection @ M5
How to trade (iii) false breakout @ M15?
1. Price close outside SnR
2. 2nd CS close inside SnR
3. Immediate entry after 2nd CS close.
4. Usually the aftermath range is the biggest after price consolidation.
Another addition entry is Rejection-continuation :
1. Always happen in strong trend as a pullback
2. CS rejection @ M15
3. CS engulf @ M5
4. Immediate entry after rejection CS close
FCPO 20 August 2021 : Rising Wedges1. Yesterday's price was able to break previous support.
2. Currently price will trade in the range. Testing previous SbR.
3. Rising wedge pattern indicates bearish continuation.
FCPO - Mapping - 20/08/2021Breakout (Buy), Fail To Breakout (Sell), Break-in (Sell), Fail To Break-in (Buy). TP at the nearest lines.
Valid on the said date. Enjoy and feel it. Hopefully, it's useful. This is for study and educational purposes only.
FCPO 19 August 2021 : In rangeTrend bias to downtrend.
Consolidation phase..
1. Yesterday's price failed to break the support.
2. Today price failed to break resistance.
3. 15min rejection + 5min CS confirmation false breakout.
Trade in the range..
FCPO - Mapping - 19/08/2021Breakout (Buy), Fail To Breakout (Sell), Break-in (Sell), Fail To Break-in (Buy). TP at the nearest lines.
Valid on the said date. Enjoy and feel it. Hopefully, it's useful. This is for study and educational purposes only.
FCPO 18 August 202115min chart price break previous day low indicates a downtrend.
New day price is open inside the range.
FCPO Trading Strategy for False Breakout and Valid BreakoutPrice downtrend continuation when new day price open inside the previous trading range.
Valid breakout = trend continuation
Therefore, we use 1min TF to look for entry.
1. Break market structure.
2. EMA 14,50,200 trend.
3. Stochastic
4. Reverse-retest
5. Stoploss
6. TP
False breakout = reversal/rejection
Use 15min to find entry
1. Entry after 2nd CS close back inside the zone
2. Stoploss 2xATR @1min chart.
3. TP opposite Support / Resistance.
FCPO - Mapping - 18/08/2021Breakout (Buy), Fail To Breakout (Sell), Break-in (Sell), Fail To Break-in (Buy). TP at the nearest lines.
Valid on the said date. Enjoy and feel it. Hopefully, it's useful. This is for study and educational purposes only.
FCPO (Nov 21 Contract)My view for Crude Palm oil as follows.
1) Price will make a decline towards $4336 to $4330 area, making a new support area.
2) Price shall then make a rally and heads to $4500 area (plus minus ish)
3) before making a big drop to $4000 area
In conclusion, will look to make a quick 45ticks by shorting. After the 1st session break, i will look for a long opportunity. If there is no buying pressure, then my we will look for other opportunity.
Good luck kawan!
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse?
The false breakout strategy :
1. Timeframe 15min
2. Identify strong valid SnR
3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck.
4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close.
5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR.
Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation
1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
FCPO 17 August 2021Yesterday's price was still in the range. Testing support multiple times.
1.Today price open break yesterday resistance.
2.All EMA uptrend
3.Stoch oversold
However, the Stop loss is too large to take.
Wait for another setup with a good risk and reward ratio.
FCPO - Mapping - 17/08/2021Breakout (Buy), Fail To Breakout (Sell), Break-in (Sell), Fail To Break-in (Buy). TP at the nearest lines.
Valid on the said date. Enjoy and feel it. Hopefully, it's useful. This is for study and educational purposes only.
FCPO TRADING : 298) bearish divergencethis is haidojo and the number is 298 ...
today is 16th Aug 2021 and it is the first day of the new exchange date. Now the third active month for fcpo falls on fcpo-Nov21.
so, nothing excited happens tdy...the recent high of 4560 is not broken...and if you scrutinize the daily chart properly, it actually reveals that the previous high formed in mid-May 2021 at 4525 is not even broken yet.
ps : WHy? I tot u said earlier that the new high is formed at 4560...?
my own ps answering the ps : yes, but thr is no higher-high, higher close which is formed abv the 4525 in daily chart.
ps : What? What the freak does that mean?
my own ps answering the ps : That means the daily candlestick/price needs to break abv 4525 (it is already done), and closed abv 4525 (not yet)
Another discovery is that the daily RSI is showing bearish divergence. It means the price continues to go up but the RSI is going down.
For me, I need another gap down go down to confirm a reversal. OR the price sticks at that level for another few days...(or few weeks/months, yesss, it has happened b4). IF the price keeps moving up and creates a New Structure High by closing abv 4525 in daily chart, then turn to long on retracement. (that means buy when it dips, and be super careful! if u have no trading plan and no Stop Loss, pliz dun do that!)
One more thingy, I started talking to my laptop nowadays. Whenever my gf found out that, she would ask me whom I am talking to?
I normally replied, " I am talking to my pets"
she would say "...but your pets are ...hamsters. They know how to read charts now? "
I kept fighting, " Well, they don't. That's WHY I am explaining to them..."
gf "... "
I hope that is not schizophrenia in the play. Social distancing and movement control thingy is still happening here in Malaysia. I have a fren who hasn't gone out to buy anything in 2 months. ...and I just hope that I can go out for my lunch and dinner soon.
that's all for tdy ...if u are frm Malaysia, be safe, stay at home...
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
immediate resistance : 4476-4560(the record high)
immediate support : 4330
lower support : 4187-4190
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures, cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options, or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING . It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
FCPO 16 August 2021New contract..
Price seems like trade in the range.
Approaching Gann box cycle level 1.0.
Lets see if price able to break above resistance.
FCPO - Mapping - 16/08/2021Breakout (Buy), Fail To Breakout (Sell), Break-in (Sell), Fail To Break-in (Buy). TP at the nearest lines.
Valid on the said date. Enjoy and feel it. Hopefully, it's useful. This is for study and educational purposes only.
Recap FCPO 13 August 20211. The major trend market structure is an uptrend.
2. Early morning session continues from previous day give us short term trade for downtrend move.
3. Once the downtrend market structure is broken, prepare to find the long entry opportunity
4. There is 2 type of entry. Risky and safe entry.
5. Risky entry when EMA14 + EMA50 still below EMA200 while price successfully break EMA200
6. Safe entry when all EMA align for uptrend movement.
Time Cycle and Gann Box for FCPOTime cycle and Gann box to predict the market movement hence easy to make the decision.
We use 15min TF as our major time frame.
Time cycle draws by choosing double top/bottom.
Gann Box draw align with the time cycle for each level.
For current market trend, its follow the current cycle time. It might be changing in the future.
FCPO TRADING : 297) to the peak againthis is haidojo and the number is 297 ...
Yesterday, another test to the peak at 4476-4525 since the July trial. This level was seen in mid-May this year. IF this level is broken and new high is created, THEN this new high is unprecedented and it has never been reached b4. This is where I call it as the "no man land" region. \
Yesterday, new level is breached at 4548, but it closed slightly lower at 4505 bcox of profit taking. This formed an "inverted hammer" in hourly candlestick pattern. Unknown to what is going to happen today, I guess we have reached the top. Why?
Yesterday, fcpo-Oct gap up 100-pts and went up another 250pts! That is one of the sign that the momentum of the bull has reached its peak. It has already given out all its strength. So, look at what will happen today (12th Aug 2021).
2nd reason is, fcpo-aug is going to expire tomoro. Next Monday, on 16th Aug 2021, new active third month fcpo-Nov will emerge.
However, for the bull supporters, it is not all gloom and doom. RSI of the hourly and daily chart are not at "overbought" region yet. SO, there is still chance to create new structure high. See how it plays out today. I need to post now or else, ppl will claim me "cheating", for seeing the results first and typed this thing later. HahA.
that's all for tdy ...if u are frm malaysia, be safe, stay at home...
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
immediate resistance : 4476-4525(the record high)
immediate support : 4400-4300
lower support : 4187-4190
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING . It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
Futures Crude Palm Oil: Breakout All Time High & Retrace?On 11/8/2021 and 12/8/2021, there are an attempt of breaking it's CC chart's ATH but unable to sustain above RM4425. As per 13/8/2021, the price closed at RM4474/mt and maybe looking for a slight retracement signal. Overall outlook, still looking very bullish and the price might be able to reach up to RM4800/mt in the near time based on the supply and demand data published by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) (bepi.mpob.gov.my).
How to trade FCPO intraday?Setup for Intraday :
1. Price near/ cross EMA200
2. Understand market structure either uptrend/downtrend/consolidation to be able to determine the SnR for the breakout.
3. Market trending confirmation by EMA14, EMA50, and EMA200.
4. Wait for a pullback when stochastic oversold/bought.
5. Make sure price reverse at least 3 candlesticks.
6. Entry when price pullback again :
a) At previous support
b) At EMA
c) Stochastic oversold/bought again.
7. Exit
a) Stoploss at the beginning price before breakout
b) Target profit using Fibo Extension 1.618.
