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FGLDZ2025 trade ideas

Gold Testing All Time High LevelsIt is no secret that the precious metals have been at the forefront of traders' minds over the past year with Gold and Silver showing significant gains near all time high levels. The Gold market today is up over $50 on the February contract and is now trading near the all time high levels achieved in October of 2024. Looking at the economic data, initial jobless claims came in better than expected while GDP came in worse than expected. Along with the economic data, the Fed met this week and kept rates unchanged, and the CME Fed Watch Tool is now pricing in the first rate cut of the year to come in June. This estimation can change over the course of the next few months based on many different indicators such as unemployment and inflation, but precious metals traders will be keeping an eye on guidance from the Fed to see if the current run in Gold and Silver will continue. Finally, we'd like to let all our readers know that CME Group has partnered with TradingView to host The Futures Leap, a 1-month trading challenge through which participants can learn to master futures markets, trade big events and compete for a share of a GETTEX:25K prize purse. Click here to register for this event. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GCG2025
by CME_Group
1
First Week of 2025 - Shape Market Sentiment for the Rest of 2025The first week of trading is always significant, as many investors begin initiating and rebalancing their positions for the year. Last week, we discussed the bond markets, which may impact yields and influence the direction of interest rates and inflation. This could lead to increased volatility in the stock market, prompting investors to focus on gold. 1 Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MCG Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
Trading Gold Futures Amid Global Trade TensionsCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) #Microfutures The United States will be implementing new tariffs on Saturday, February 1st, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% duty on all goods from China. These countries are the Top 3 U.S. trading partners, contributing to 40% of all goods and services imported into the US in 2023, collectively. On Friday, gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per troy ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23. The record rally is fueled by a flight to safety as trade tensions rise. Gold futures are trading at a premium to spot gold prices. The lead April contract of the benchmark COMEX gold futures settled at $2,833 on Friday. Looking back, the trade tensions between the US and China have intensified since 2018. This time, higher tariffs will be applied globally, not only to competitors of U.S. interests, but also to close allies such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Lessons from the US-China Trade Conflict How would the global trade conflicts shape up? Uncertainties remain elevated. Luckily, the US-China trade conflict provides us historical lessons with present-day relevancy. Let’s have a quick review of the major timeline of key events: • July 6, 2018: The trade conflict begins as the US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs on an equal amount of US goods. • August 23, 2018: The US imposes additional 25% tariffs on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responds with tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods. • September 24, 2018: The US imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliates with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. • December 1, 2018: A temporary truce is agreed upon during the G20 summit, with a 90-day period for negotiations. • January 15, 2020: The "Phase One" trade deal is signed, easing some tariffs and committing China to increase purchases of US goods. Gold prices responded quickly at each stage of the trade conflict, creating ample trading opportunities. On June 7, 2022, I published “Event-Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” on TradingView, based on my own trading experience from 2018-19. A link to this write-up is provided here for your information: In summary, I observed patterns in gold prices while the trade conflict was progressing, and designed event-driven strategy based on Game Theory. Here are the highlights: • US initiated new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • China retaliated with new tariffs; Gold prices went up further ("Risk On”) • US and China announced trade negotiations; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Negotiations broke down followed by new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • Negotiations resumed; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement was reached; Gold prices went down sharply (“Risk Off”) The “Fight-and-Talk” could go multiple rounds, pushing tariffs to higher levels. Just how high? China previously maintained a 12% import tariff on U.S. pork products. In its first round of trade retaliation in 2018, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on US pork. A month later, another 25% was added. Pork tariff went up a further 10% in the third round of retaliation, making the total tariff on US pork at a mind-boggling 72%! As shown in the chart, gold responded in an observable manner following each key event. This repetitive pattern made it possible to set up trades in anticipation of the next moves. The Sequence of Next Moves in Trade Conflicts Learning from the previous experience, we could simulate a series of scenarios when new tariffs are imposed on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. • US initiates new tariffs; Gold prices go up (“Risk On”) • The other country retaliates with new tariffs; Gold prices go up further ("Risk On”) • The two countries announced trade negotiations; Gold prices go down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement is reached; Gold prices go down sharply (“Risk Off”) In my opinion, the countries involved would retaliate but may want to avoid a costly trade conflict dragging on. With the brutality of the last trade conflict still fresh in mind, trade deals could be reached more quickly. From a trading perspective, the Fight-and-Talk patterns could be repeated multiple times, making our event-driven strategy reusable. Given that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are the biggest U.S. trading partners, the price swing in gold could be more volatile. Conflicts with smaller trading partners, such as Taiwan and the Southeastern Asian countries, may not trigger big moves in gold. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on January 28th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 577,505, up 15% from the level last November when the U.S. election was held. Interest in using gold for trading or hedging goes up with the escalation of risk. “Swap Dealers” own 363,051 contracts, making them the largest trader category to own gold futures positions. • Swap Dealers have 29,725 in Long, 272,549 in Short, and 60,777 in Spreading • The long-short ratio of 1:9 indicates that “Smart Money” is overwhelmingly bearish There is another supporting factor for a bearish view: A key driver in gold prices is the geopolitical crisis. President Trump announced that he planned to meet with President Xi of China within the first 100 days in office. A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also being planned. As we know, bullion is a preferred asset during times of turmoil. We may soon see the geopolitical risks unwinding, which will send gold prices sharply down. This could happen when Russia and Ukraine end their military conflict with a peace treaty. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Friday settlement price of 2,833, each April contract (MGCJ5) has a notional value of $28,330. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Thursday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 126,712 contracts and an Open Interest of 30,633. Hypothetically, a trader shorts April MGC contract and gold prices pull back 5% to 2,691. A short futures position would gain $1,420 (=142 x $10). Using the initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +123% (= 1420 / 1150). The risk of shorting gold futures is rising gold prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. Traders could express the same view with the standard COMEX Gold (GC) futures or the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures, which represent just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of GC futures contract. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, sponsored by CME Group, will begin at TradingView on February 3rd. I encourage you to join The Leap and compete to be the best in CME Group futures trading and win a share of $25,000 in cash prizes or an additional six months to your TradingView subscription. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Be careful with GOLD !!!As you can see, the price has made a fake breakout within the triangle, which is clearly visible on the MACD showing a bearish divergence. The price might drop to around 2685 and then try to break the triangle . Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CobraVanguard
2
Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” said John Pierpont Morgan some 100+ years ago. Gold is limited in supply. Much of what can be mined has been dug up. Gold bugs opine that the only way for gold prices is up as fiat money continues to be printed with nothing but institutional promises backing them. As a result, not only is the price of gold inching up, but the value commanded by fiat money continues to contract. GOLD’S RISE HAS REMAINED UNSTOPPABLE DURING THE LAST TWO YEARS Gold, as represented by CME Gold Futures, was up 1.45x delivering a stunning 13.5% gain in 2023 followed by a record-shattering 27% gain in 2024. These stellar returns were delivered with a 20-day rolling realised volatility averaging south of 14% commanding a Sharpe Ratio of more than one. The World Gold Council analysis shows that gold outperformed US stocks, EM equities, bonds, and commodities. LBMA Gold prices surged by 25.5% while printing 40 all-time highs in 2024 with the most recent high of USD 2,777.80/oz on 30th October 2024. This remarkable growth was driven by strong demand from central banks and institutional investors combined with rising geopolitical risks. Source: gold.org After such a stunning rally these last two years, what to expect from gold in 2025? First, recapping the rationale for gold. GOLD REMAINS A HEDGE AGAINST SUSTAINED INFLATION, DEBASEMENT, & TRUST DEFICIT Gold has long been considered a safeguard against economic uncertainties, particularly during periods when confidence in financial institutions and government policies wanes. This perception is rooted in gold's intrinsic value and its independence from any single nation's economic policies, making it a preferred asset during times of trust deficit. Several factors have reinforced gold's role as a hedge against trust deficit, key among them being: • Geopolitical Tensions : Ongoing global conflicts and political instability have heightened investor anxiety, leading many to seek refuge in gold. Its value appreciates when geopolitical risks escalate, reflecting its status as a haven asset. • Fiscal Policies & Debt Levels : Concerns over rising national debts and fiscal deficits, particularly in major economies like the United States, have prompted investors to turn to gold. Analysts suggest that gold benefits from apprehensions about the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits, serving as a buffer against potential fiscal crises. • Inflation & Currency Depreciation : Fears of inflation and currency devaluation have further increased gold's appeal. As a tangible asset, gold is perceived as a store of value that can preserve wealth against the eroding effects of inflation & currency debasement. Moreover, during periods of financial market volatility, gold has demonstrated its effectiveness as a portfolio diversifier. Its low correlation with other asset classes allows it to mitigate losses during market downturns, providing stability when trust diminishes. In summary, gold's enduring value and independence from centralized financial systems make it a reliable hedge against trust deficit. Investors seeking portfolio protection turn to gold as a haven. GOLD HAS HEADROOM TO RISE EVEN HIGHER IN 2025 State Street Global Advisors ("SSGA") cite three primary reasons for being bullish on Gold in 2025. These include (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India as domestic gold ETFs proliferate, and (c) US monetary easing and the potential for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policies to expand deficits. Central banks have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace in recent record. Consistent buying in the past three years despite surging prices point to long-term strategic considerations beyond price sensitivity. Gold’s inverse relationship with the US dollar remains misunderstood. The USD is as strong today as it was at the start of the century, while gold has appreciated 813% in the same period. A strong dollar does not necessarily make gold bearish. New Trump Administration to be sworn-in later today (20th Jan 2025) also serves as a tailwind to gold prices. During Trump 2.0, the President's proposed tariff policies are likely to accelerate the de-dollarisation trend and be compounded by rising geopolitical risks. Collectively, this will push central banks and consumers to seek shelter in gold. Source: SSGA.com SSGA has a base case scenario (with a 50% likelihood) of gold trading between USD 2,600 to USD 2,900 an ounce. It also sets out a bull case with a 30% chance of gold price ranging between USD 2,900 to USD 3,100 an ounce. A bear case alternative (20% chance) of gold prices pulling back to trade between USD 2,200 to USD 2,600 per ounce. GOLD ETF FLOWS HAVE BEEN ROBUST IN 2025 The GLD ETF has seen substantial positive inflows into the fund so far this year. Barring four days of net outflows, large inflows on 10/Jan and 17/Jan have contributed to additional AUM of USD 579.22 million into the GLD ETF taking the total AUM to USD 76.74 billion. Post-election results, the GLD ETF witnessed multiple days of fund outflows and those have been more than offset with fresh funds moving into the ETF signalling bullish investor sentiment. SEASONALITY FAVORS A BULLISH STANCE IN GOLD Save for February & June, Gold Futures have generated positive returns during the first half of the year delivering 6.6% upside gains on average over the last ten years. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP A confluence of fundamentals, seasonality, and sentiment points to near to medium-term bullishness in gold prices. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of a long position in CME Micro Gold Futures contract expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025). Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. • Entry: USD 2,754/oz • Target: USD 2,880/oz • Stop: USD 2,670/oz • P&L at Target (per lot): +1,260 ((2,880 – 2,754) x 10) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -840 ((2,754 – 2,670) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2025Long
by mintdotfinance
Gold Futured trend line analysis Looking at the 15-minute chart, gold futures has been respecting the yellow downward trendline for some time before market close, while maintaining an overall bullish structure supported by the red upward trendline. The price is currently consolidating near the intersection of these trendlines, showing a potential breakout scenario. If the price breaks above the yellow downward trendline, it could signal bullish momentum, with the next resistance levels to watch being near 2,744.8 and 2,747.6 The stochastics oscillator is currently in the oversold zone, accompanied by increasing volume—both strong indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the yellow trendline. Volume will be critical in confirming the breakout, so keep an eye on increasing participation as the price approaches the yellow trendline.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GamesOfProfit
2
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERN©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. The 4H chart shows that we are inside the 4th wave in grey, based on some data on the current price action, it looks like a Sidewaves pattern and is narrowing over time. So it suggests to me the view of an unfolding Triangle. The ((d))-navy wave is probably close to completing its role by creating the resistance level ((b)),((d))-navy, but this view is not strong, so at the moment in gold, there are at least several different wave counts at work at the same time. Let's look at the alternative view of ALT, which also shows that the 4-grey wave is not showing any signs of ending, but instead developing as a Flat, its ((b))-navy wave will move higher.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
Gold Strength Continues Ahead Of Fed MeetingThe Gold market and the metals complex as a whole had a strong run in 2024 , and Gold has seen this strength continue over the last few weeks. Since the highs in October, Gold has seen some consolidation with prices falling due to many factors such as the changing Fed environment and the overall sentiment of the precious metals complex. Some of the metals are still lagging due to the fact that metals like Silver and Copper have a more industrial background to them and have other factors impacting price movements. The average true range of Gold currently sits near 35, which is not a record high for the contract but is offering a wide daily range for traders to position themselves in. The Gold market offers several different sizing options for many different types of traders, ranging from the newly released 1-oz contract to the full sized 100-oz contract. This wide variety of contracts helps give a larger range of traders the ability to trade depending on their own personal risk appetite or trading strategy. With the strong attention from traders on Gold along with the volatility traders have seen, it is critical for traders to understand what size contract will be most effective for their trading strategy. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GCG2025
by CME_Group