2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
gold
comment: Daily ema at 2346 and we closed 2339. Bulls can’t close above it and bears can’t break below 2300. Today was strong enough for bulls to try and get a second leg. Measured move is up to 2375ish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2360
bull case: Bulls first target tomorrow is to stay above the 1h ema and then break above 2350. 2350 is big resistance until broken. If they manage to break it, high probability we see 2360+.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case. Bears kinda tried down to 2304 but market stalled so long down there, that bears just gave up before EU open and market just melted higher. Was this a buy vacuum produced by bears stepping aside, rather than strong bulls buying? Will find out tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 2350.
short term: Odds favor the bulls for a second leg up but 2350 is big resistance until broken.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anything after bar 6 broke above the range and the 1h 20ema.