GOLD FUTURES: LOADED COIL OR BREAKDOWN RISK
### 📉 **GOLD FUTURES: Loaded Coil or Breakdown Risk?**
**Symbol:** MGCQ25 / MGC1!
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Session:** NY Open Pre-Market
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### 🔍 **Top-Down Analysis (TE GRID Aligned)**
#### 🕵️♂️ 1D Macro Bias:
Gold’s daily candle is an aggressive rejection off the \$3,400s with a break of the prior demand zone. Heavy volume on the red day signals **institutional unwinding** 📉. Price cracked through the previous bullish imbalance zone and now floats just above key structural support at **\$3,295**.
* 🟣 **Bias:** **Bearish until proven otherwise**
* ⚠️ Watch: If today closes below \$3,295, opens door for \$3,170 sweep
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#### 🧠 4H/1H HTF Structure:
* 4H shows textbook lower high + BOS formation — order blocks at **\$3,378–\$3,400** rejected price multiple times.
* 1H VWAP anchored from the last major high at \$3,400 is pressing down — no reclaim, no rally.
* Big liquidity cluster sits below at **\$3,170–\$3,130**, possibly magnetic.
🔵 **HTF TE GRID Check**:
* ✅ HTF Bias: Bearish
* ✅ No support reclaim
* ✅ Liquidity below
→ **Short bias confirmed**
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#### 🧪 15m Intraday Liquidity Check:
* VWAP = resistance
* EQ (Equilibrium) from consolidation = broken
* Price action: forming lower highs beneath \$3,336–\$3,340
* Volume dropping on minor pullbacks = weak buyer response
🔴 **Intraday Bias:** Fade rallies into HTF resistance
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### ⚔️ **TE GRID Trade Setup Ideas** (Execution-Ready)
#### 🎯 **Setup #1 – HTF Supply Rejection Short**
* 🔹 *Entry:* \$3,336–\$3,340 zone (intraday VWAP retest)
* 🔹 *Stop:* Above \$3,350 (invalidates idea)
* 🔹 *Target 1:* \$3,295 (gap fill)
* 🔹 *Target 2:* \$3,170 (macro sweep target)
* 🧠 *TE GRID Alignment:*
* HTF down ✅
* Liquidity above swept ✅
* Rejection from imbalance ✅
#### 🎯 **Setup #2 – Breakdown Momentum Play**
* 🔹 *Entry:* Break & retest of \$3,295
* 🔹 *Stop:* Above \$3,305
* 🔹 *Target:* \$3,170 → \$3,130
* 🧠 *TE GRID Alignment:*
* Structure BOS ✅
* Rejection of EQ ✅
* No buyer absorption ✅
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🚨 **Gold Futures Breakdown In Progress — Powell Speech Could Seal the Deal** 🧠💣
Gold is under heavy pressure as the market rotates out of safe havens amid a cooling in geopolitical risk — but price action says this isn’t over yet 👀.
The **Israel–Iran ceasefire** may have stunned gold bulls, but the real signal is coming from **macro and technical structure**. Powell’s testimony today could either validate the Fed’s dovish lean — or crush the dollar further. Either way, volatility is loading. ⚡️
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📉 **TE GRID Top-Down Breakdown**
1️⃣ **Daily:** Bearish rejection from prior demand
2️⃣ **4H/1H:** Rejected from VWAP and macro imbalance at \$3,378–\$3,400
3️⃣ **15m:** Weak bounce volume, liquidity gaps below = fade rallies
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🎯 **Key Trade Levels:**
* **Short Zone:** \$3,336–\$3,340
* **Breakdown Trigger:** \$3,295
* **Targets:**
* \$3,170 = HTF liquidity draw 🧲
* \$3,130 = macro flush if Powell disappoints 🪓
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⚖️ **Narrative:**
Gold is stuck between **a falling dollar** and a **waning fear premium**. Powell is the final wildcard — if he leans dovish, the dollar could slide further. But without structural reclaim, **gold remains a short-the-rip environment**. Stay tactical. Let price confirm before you commit. 🧠📉
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🛑 *Disclaimer:* Not financial advice. This is professional-grade trade research. Execute with precision.
