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FGLD1! trade ideas

Two potential swing trades for goldGold futures saw a false break of $2060 on Wednesday, before momentum turned lower and sent prices back beneath the weekly and monthly pivot points. Those pivots have since turned into resistance, before gold saw a trendline break. As RSI (2) is oversold and prices have found support at the 10-dy EMA and daily S1 pivot, bulls could seek a near-term swing long trade with a stop below 2045 and a target back near the pivots. At which point, we see the potential for another leg lower, so bears could seek evidence of a swing high and for a move back down to $2040, or the swing lows near the daily S pivot.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CityIndex
Gold: Don’t Slacken! 💪To follow our primary scenario, Gold must not slacken on its way further up the chart! We still expect the turquoise wave B to reach a new all-time high, which requires more (corrective) rises. However, our alternative scenario could still prevail with a probability of 40%. In this case, the turquoise wave alt.B would have already been finished with the last prominent high, and Gold would, therefore, turn down earlier to dive below the support at $1935.
COMEX:GC1!
by MarketIntel
1
Gold Update: No changesNothing new to add on Gold. It is as slow moving as molasses. It is still on positive divergence at this time. Economists are starting to say a recession is expected at some time this year so maybe that is the catalyst gold is waiting on to raise higher. It has always been a store of value and a commodity people flock to in hard economic times. One question I want to leave you with concerning gold; is BTC replacing it? Many older investors are finally coming around to BTC and the potential it holds making it more mainstream. This is opening it up to more equity streams of capital. What does this mean for gold? Only time will tell... Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
COMEX:GC1!
by TSuth
The Calm before the storm. feeling slightly Bullish Hello, all traders! This would be my very first published idea. I am an intraday trader and would love to share my position for today. This is not financial advice, just my perspective on the market. Gold Futures seem very bearish, but I have chosen this position with Entry - 2012.3 Take profit - 2022.8 Stop loss at 2008.1. After this trade executes, my main position will be to short Gold. I believe gold will test 2022 again before falling once more. Good luck to all traders.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DTrades0101
2
gold-silver-ratio As You can see an apex which showed bullish absorption was cutted the bearish style, to be tested if it will sustain strength. Now we see a rising wedge with shortening of time in the upper area and no shortening no expension of time at the lower boundaries. This leads to the conclusion, that gold is sold and silver is bought. Silver and copper are industrial metals. When they show strength vs. gold the markets are in an early stage of a big trend with a lot of bredth indicators moving to the upside soon.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by revilo1987
1
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. For gold i updated my weekly chart and bears proved me very wrong. Here my quote from the weekly outlook: short term: slightly bullish to top of triangle, invalid below 2030 Obviously they did break below big time and now bulls are doing everything they can to keep this above 2000. bull case: Bulls have to keep this above 2000 or bears will take over and push this to 1950. Since we are in a big trading range for a long time, odds favor the bulls for a short term bounce, probably to around 2020/2023 where market decides what’s it gonna be next. bear case: Bears broke out of the triangle and closed the bullish gap, now they need follow through. If they are strong, they should be able to keep it below 2030 and then sell to their first target 1990 and then 1950. short term: bearish - expecting some smaller bounce before more down medium-long term: odds for the bears risen significantly today. if they can get follow through, we will form a proper bear channel soon from which we can calculate new lower targets below 1900. still neutral until follow through trade of the day: short below the CPI bear spike for bet on follow through
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#1 Reason Why Gold Is Cheap At This PriceBitcoin is on fire have you seen? COINBASE:BTCUSD Right now the market is tanking like a rock!! -- Especially on the consensus side of it. Meaning the global economy under the TVC:DXY Is not doing well -- Countries that look up to the dollar for savings are suffering under high inflation because the printing of the dollar increases its power against the local currency -- Also the luck of oil supply globally is forcing oil prices to rise Do you remember the article i wrote right here on tradingview when i showed you that oil price NYMEX:CL1! was going to rise? -- Check it out below -- Gold is oversold and it looks very cheap at this price this is a good time for investors to consider buying it. -- Disclaimer:Do your own research before you trade this is not investment advice.You will lose money trading take this as a warning sign.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Q. WILL A 125BPS CUT IN INTEREST RATES DRIVE UP GOLD? A. Remember when it comes to interest rate cuts it means the following: Stimulates economic growth This makes borrowing cheaper as interest rates are lower. And it encourages more spending and investments by individuals and businesses. Boosts buying from consumers Also, with low interest rates it entices people to buy more. And this is because the cost of loans drops. This leads to them buying more homes, cars, and other goods. There are other elements, but you get the idea. Now, lets consider why lower interest rates could mean the gold price will rally Reason #1: Lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar helps the gold price When interest rates drop, the yield on bonds and savings accounts typically declines. And a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for people with other currencies. It's like gold goes on a global sale, and everyone wants a piece! So, this will drive up its demand and the price. Reason #2: Investors get out of low yielding markets and into gold Remember that when interest rates are high, investors move to high yielding markets. They like to keep their money in the banks, bonds, money market or any other high interest savings accounts. But when interest rates drop, investors don’t make much of their money from these assets. And so, they will look to invest in markets like gold, which will drive the price up. Reason #3: The golden safe-haven will prevail! With interest rate cuts, it normally signals signs of economic uncertainty or weakness. And during these times, investors will often seek out safe-haven assets. Gold is a classic example of a safe haven that investors will look to buy. And this golden attraction will help push the price up.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by Timonrosso
Gold Update: Nothing new yetGold has to be the slowest moving ticker I have ever tracked lol. It's like watching hair grow, like watching a sloth walk, or like watching a snail cross the road. All SUUUPER exciting. After saying all this, nothing has changed yet. As I have stated in my SPY post, I believe the S&P is about to drop for b wave of 5 so maybe that will help propel Gold slightly and make it move somewhat faster. Instead of moving at the pace of a snail it will move at the pace of a worm... Either way, targets are unchanged as of now. Price did make a slight high so technically speaking that could have been the (5) I've been waiting on. I don't think this is the case as structure doesn't suggest that, but I've seen crazier things.
COMEX:GC1!
by TSuth
1
Gold continues within tight range triangle patternGold continues within tight range triangle pattern. After powell insignificant talk of rate cuts(in a mid n yes/no talk) gold following same pattern n might wait for a breakthrough by any big shock. Chart showing wait n watch conditions. So let's see which side it go. Overall if rate cut not possible in near term than that's a bearish for market but nowadays it's all about data. So not sure but I'm very bullish during rate cuts.
MCX:GOLD1!
by ktra_commodities
Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum RatioGold is the favoured precious metal. Its demand reflects consumer consumption of jewellery, investment demand, and monetary policy conditions. In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted these factors in detail. Platinum is also a precious metal, used to create jewellery and to a small extent as a form of investment. Crucially, unlike gold (6% industrial demand), platinum (73% industrial demand) is used more extensively for industrial applications. As gold and platinum share the source of jewellery demand, their performance is generally positively correlated. However, due to the distinct sources of demand as well as the extent to which each precious metal is used for each application, the correlation can break. These periods can offer tactical trading opportunities to benefit from the relative performance of CME Group’s precious metals suite. Particularly in a key ratio called the Gold to Platinum Ratio (“GPR”) which measures the price of gold relative to platinum. WHAT DRIVES THE GOLD-PLATINUM-RATIO The GPR is affected by monetary policy. Though the ratio does not show a distinct impact upon the first-rate cuts by Fed, rapid rate cuts in response to economic crises such as recessions can cause it to rally. The GPR increases during recessions due to investor preference for gold during times of crisis. Interestingly, the ratio has been rising since 2008 as gold price reaches new record highs, while platinum currently faces a cyclical downturn. RECESSION MAY BE UNLIKELY While the GPR faces the potential to increase during a potential recession, there are signs that a recession may be unlikely in the US. US spending remains resilient and has contributed to faster than expected GDP growth in 2023. While growth slowed heading into Q4 2023, it is still expected to expand at a strong 2% in the quarter. Moreover, the January BLS nonfarm payrolls report showed a massive 353k new jobs added. Wage growth was strong at 0.6% MoM, double the analyst estimate. Strong labour market and consumer spending in the US point to a healthier than expected economy. INDUSTRIAL SLOWDOWN WILL STILL HAMPER PLATINUM DEMAND In 2023, 33% of platinum’s demand came from industrial sources according to data from the World Platinum Investment Council . Platinum is used as a catalyst for several crucial industrial chemical processes. In addition, automotive demand represents a further 40% of total platinum demand. In the automotive industry, platinum is used in catalytic converters to reduce emissions. This has been a recent driver of platinum demand due to rising emissions standards and the so-called platinum-for-palladium substitution. In short, palladium is a Platinum Group Metal (PGM) which can be used interchangeably in automotive applications. The surge in palladium prices prompted many automakers to replace it with platinum. These changes will be in place for the lifetime of a car’s production so this trend will benefit platinum for an extended period. While platinum is a standout among the so-called Platinum Group Metals (PGM), the industry has been facing a downturn over the past 2 years with prices sharply lower. Ample above-ground inventories as well as low investment demand has hampered platinum performance. This downturn may not be permanent. Higher automotive demand and growth in hydrogen vehicles are expected to be long-term growth drivers for platinum. For 2024, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a smaller supply deficit than 2023. This is largely due to lower industrial and investment demand as well as improved supply. Anglo American, one of the largest producers of refined platinum stated that it expects PGM production to improve, which means ample supply. During 2023, production was hampered in South Africa. Going forward, PGM’s are meant to be a major driver for the mining giant, so efforts to improve production are under way and management also expects prices to recover. However, continued cost pressures may force miners to scale back production. Overall, the slowdown in chemical and petroleum demand as well as ample supply will limit Platinum’s performance in 2024, though price does face upside potential in the medium-to-long term. BENEFITS OF TRADING THE RATIO Platinum faces a mixed outlook in 2024, while there are several long-term demand growth drivers pushing price up, it faces uncertain but bearish production and demand outlooks for 2024. Similarly, gold is benefiting from heightened geo-political risk and strong central bank demand but faces resistance as prices reaches new record highs and a recession looks unlikely. Mint Finance covered some of these factors in detail in a previous post . While the outlook for both precious metals alone is uncertain, a trade on the back of the GPR favours gold. Not only has the ratio been on an uptrend for the past decade, it has outperformed both gold and platinum prices. Moreover, the ratio is not prone to overly large corrections. The largest drawdown in the ratio was smaller than the largest drawdown in gold and platinum prices. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP To express a position on GPR, investors can opt to use CME Group’s suite of precious metals future. Margin offset of 50% is available for a trade consisting of 1 gold (GC) contract and 2 platinum (PL) contracts. Executing a trade on the May futures contracts (GCK2024 and PLK2024), requires margin of: (Margin for Gold Leg + 2 x Margin for Platinum Leg) = (USD 8,300 + 2 x USD 2,800) = USD 13,900 – margin offset of 50% = USD 6,950. CME options on gold and platinum point to a bullish outlook for both but gold positioning is more bullish than platinum. As of 5/Feb, Gold options have a put/call ratio of 0.48 while platinum options have a put/call ratio of 0.75. Consider the following hypothetical trade setup: Entry: 2.275 Target: 2.530 Stop Loss: 2.100 Profit at Target: USD 23,013 Loss at Stop: USD 15,803 Reward to Risk: 1.46x This position benefits when: • Gold price rises faster than platinum. • Gold price falls slower than platinum. The position loses when: • Gold price rises slower than platinum. • Gold price falls faster than platinum. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
15
Dxy and gold2.6.24 I started the video cleaning up some issues on oil which I believe is going higher. This video is about the dollar which I think will trade lower but I'm not sure how much lower, and this market has an opening price trade suggesting it We'll go lower. After some discussion on that I went to the gold chart and I framed it for you... the details are fairly clear so I won't discuss it here.... and this may be a long trade for gold which has a two-bar reversal but I'm not sure how comfortable I am with the signal even though it could be traded for a long trade with a small stop. So let's take a look at it and see what happens. I am a big proponent of having an analytical view of the market as long as you have a discretionary point of view to study the markets that you're not so clear about... because of the market... and just watch it and get familiar with certain markets that aren't as easy to trade. REMEMER: The oil market is an oversold market with lots of negative behavior which is exactly what I would look for to become a buyer. The dynamics of gold are different from the dynamics of the oil market. Can you see why?
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Decoding Market Mood: The Sentimental Drivers of Gold FuturesIntroduction In an era where information is as precious as gold itself, understanding the underlying currents that drive market sentiment has become crucial for traders and investors alike. Gold Futures, a standard in hedging against economic uncertainty and inflation, serve as a beacon for those navigating the volatile seas of the financial markets. This article embarks on an explorative journey into the realm of sentiment analysis, uncovering how shifts in global mood translate into movements in Gold Futures prices. Through a blend of case studies and theoretical insights, we will decode the signals broadcasted by market participants, hopefully offering a compass for those seeking to align their strategies with the underlying emotional and psychological state of the market. Understanding Sentiment Analysis The Essence of Sentiment Analysis: At its core, sentiment analysis in the financial markets involves the qualitative assessment of the collective mood or opinion of investors towards a specific asset or the market as a whole. It transcends traditional analysis by incorporating psychological and emotional factors, aiming to assess market movements based on the prevailing sentiment. This approach acknowledges that market prices are not solely driven by fundamental indicators but are also heavily influenced by human emotions and perceptions. Application in Financial Markets: In the realm of Gold Futures, sentiment analysis serves as a powerful tool to gauge investor confidence, fear, and overall market outlook. It encompasses the examination of various sources, including news articles, social media chatter, economic reports, and geopolitical events, to construct a sentiment score or index. This score reflects the general optimism or pessimism surrounding gold as an investment, influencing traders' decisions to buy or sell Gold Futures contracts. The Impact of Sentiment on Gold Prices: Gold's allure as a safe-haven asset makes it particularly sensitive to changes in market sentiment. During times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, a surge in pessimism can lead to increased demand for gold, pushing prices upward. Conversely, in periods of market optimism, where riskier assets become more appealing, gold may see reduced demand, leading to a decline in prices. Understanding these sentiment-driven dynamics is essential for anyone trading Gold Futures, as it allows for more informed decision-making, aligning trades with the broader market mood. Factors Influencing Gold Market Sentiment The sentiment toward gold is shaped by a myriad of factors, ranging from macroeconomic indicators to geopolitical events. Understanding these influences is paramount for traders aiming to navigate the Gold Futures market effectively. This section delves into these factors, reinforced by case studies that highlight their impact on gold prices. Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies: Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and unemployment figures significantly influence investor sentiment toward gold. Central bank policies, including interest rate decisions and quantitative easing measures, also play a crucial role. For instance, a decision by a major central bank to lower interest rates can lead to a weaker currency, prompting investors to turn to gold as a store of value. Case Study 1: Gold finishes October on a high In October 2023, amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and central bank activities, gold rallied, marking its highest monthly close by the LBMA PM price. This movement was influenced by a combination of factors, including COMEX futures' net short positions and substantial ETF inflows. The case underscores how geopolitical uncertainties and central bank maneuvers can drive investor sentiment, steering the direction of Gold Futures prices. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical events and uncertainties can lead to increased volatility in the financial markets, with gold often benefiting as a perceived safe haven. Conflicts, elections, and trade negotiations can sway investor sentiment, leading to spikes in gold demand. Case Study 2: Geopolitical and economic uncertainty boost gold demand and prices The World Gold Council's report indicated a slight dip in annual gold demand for 2023 but highlighted that demand from OTC markets and central banks kept the average annual gold price at historic highs. Despite ETF outflows, sectors like bar and coin investment and the global jewelry market showcased resilience, illustrating how geopolitical and economic uncertainties can bolster gold's appeal. Social and Environmental Considerations The growing emphasis on responsible sourcing and environmental sustainability is influencing investor sentiment toward gold. Initiatives aimed at ethical mining practices and combating illicit gold trade affect the market's perception and, subsequently, gold prices. Case Study 3: Collaboration underway to develop consolidated standard for responsible mining Efforts to establish a global standard for responsible mining, involving major industry players, highlight the market's shift toward sustainability. This collaboration aims to create a unified framework that reassures investors about the ethical provenance of their gold investments, potentially impacting demand. Case Study 4: World Gold Council and DMCC Collaborate to Combat Illicit Hand-Carried Gold Trade This strategic initiative to strengthen international regulations around gold sourcing and trade showcases the industry's commitment to ethical practices. Such measures not only enhance gold's reputation as a responsible investment but also influence market sentiment by ensuring a more transparent and reliable supply chain. Central Bank Activities Central banks are significant players in the gold market, with their buying and selling activities offering insights into their confidence in the global economy. Their actions can serve as a barometer for gold's future trajectory. Case Study 5: Central banks maintain historic buying pace in Q3 The Q3 2023 Gold Demand Trends report highlighted continued robust demand for gold, with central bank purchases significantly contributing to quarterly demand. This activity underscores central banks' role in bolstering gold market sentiment and illustrates their confidence (or lack thereof) in the current economic landscape. Applying Sentiment Analysis to Gold Futures Trading Incorporating sentiment analysis into trading strategies for Gold Futures involves a nuanced understanding of market mood and its implications for future price movements. This section discusses the current sentiment influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainty and how it sets the stage for trading decisions in 2024. Current Market Sentiment and Gold Futures As we edge into 2024, the geopolitical and economic landscape continues to shape investor sentiment toward gold. The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report for 2023 highlighted a nuanced market. Despite a slight decline in annual demand, the total demand reached a new record, propelled by central bank buying and OTC investments. This paradoxical situation—where demand dips but overall interest remains high—underscores the complex interplay of factors influencing gold prices. The Future of Gold Futures and Sentiment Analysis As sentiment analysis becomes increasingly sophisticated, its application in trading Gold Futures is expected to evolve. The development of AI and machine learning tools will enhance our ability to gauge market mood, providing traders with deeper insights and more accurate predictions. The integration of sentiment analysis into trading strategies will likely become more mainstream, offering a competitive edge to those who can interpret and act on market sentiment effectively. Trade Plan for Gold Futures Given the current sentiment and market conditions, there's a compelling case for a bullish outlook on gold. As such, we present a trade plan to go long on Gold Futures, with specific attention to risk management and catering to traders with varying risk appetites. Point Values and Contract Options Standard Gold Futures (GC): Each contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold, and the point value is $100 per troy ounce. This means a $1 move in the gold price equates to a $100 change per contract. Micro Gold Futures (MGC): For traders with a lower risk tolerance, Micro Gold Futures offer a smaller-scale opportunity. Each MGC contract represents 10 troy ounces of gold, with a point value of $10 per troy ounce, providing a more accessible entry point into gold trading. Trade Plan Details Entry Price: 2045.2 Stop Loss Price: 2001.7 Target Price: 2156 Rationale: The entry is predicated on current sentiment indicators and technical analysis, suggesting an upward momentum. The stop loss is strategically placed below key support levels to mitigate risk, while the target price is set at a level that previous sentiment-driven rallies have reached. Micro Gold Futures for Lower Risk Appetite For traders looking to engage with the gold market at a reduced risk level, Micro Gold Futures (MGC) provide an excellent alternative. Utilizing the same trade plan but with MGC contracts allows traders to manage their exposure more precisely, tailoring their investment to their comfort with risk while still capitalizing on gold's potential upside. Risk Management and Consideration Effective risk management is the cornerstone of successful trading, especially in the volatile realm of Gold Futures. Trading based on sentiment analysis introduces unique challenges and opportunities, making it imperative for traders to employ robust risk management strategies. This section emphasizes the significance of managing risk to preserve capital and sustain profitability over the long term. Understanding Risk in Sentiment-Based Trading Trading on sentiment involves interpreting market moods that can swiftly change due to unforeseen events or shifts in investor perception. Such volatility requires traders to be vigilant and adaptive, employing strategies that protect against sudden market movements. Key Risk Management Strategies Setting Stop Loss Orders: A well-placed stop loss can prevent significant losses by automatically closing a position if the market moves against your prediction. For the trade plan outlined (going long on Gold Futures), the stop loss at 2001.7 is critical for limiting potential downside. Position Sizing: Adjusting the size of your trade according to your risk tolerance and account size can mitigate risk. For traders utilizing Micro Gold Futures (MGC), this means leveraging the smaller contract size to maintain control over exposure. Diversification: While our focus is on Gold Futures, diversifying your portfolio across different assets can reduce risk. This strategy ensures that adverse movements in gold prices do not disproportionately impact your overall trading performance. Regular Monitoring and Adjustment: Sentiment can shift rapidly; regular monitoring of sentiment indicators and readiness to adjust your positions accordingly is essential. This includes potentially moving stop loss levels or taking profits early if the sentiment begins to change. Utilizing Hedging Techniques: Options and other derivative products can be used to hedge against your Gold Futures positions, offering protection against adverse price movements. Incorporating Micro Gold Futures for Risk-Averse Traders Micro Gold Futures contracts provide a nuanced way to engage with the gold market while managing risk exposure. For those cautious about sentiment-driven volatility, trading MGC allows for participation in potential upside movements without the larger capital exposure associated with standard Gold Futures contracts. Conclusion: The Sentimental Journey of Gold Futures The intricate dance between market sentiment and Gold Futures prices underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets. By decoding the mood of the market, traders can align their strategies with the prevailing winds, navigating through periods of uncertainty with informed confidence. This article has journeyed through the application of sentiment analysis, from understanding its foundations to applying it in trading strategies, and underscored the paramount importance of risk management. As we look ahead, the role of sentiment analysis in trading Gold Futures is poised to grow, propelled by advancements in technology and a deeper understanding of market psychology. The traders who succeed will be those who not only master the art of sentiment analysis but also adhere to disciplined risk management practices, ensuring their trading journey is both profitable and sustainable. In the ever-changing landscape of the gold market, the wisdom lies not just in predicting the future but in preparing for it with a well-rounded strategy that embraces sentiment analysis as a powerful tool in the trader's toolkit. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
2