2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bulls now touched the bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and market is making higher lows and lower highs. Means contraction and we will see a breakout tomorrow. I favor the bulls to retest 2700 or higher. Only bearish below 2645.
comment : Bears tried and failed. Bulls bought the bull trend line and above 2685 I don’t expect 2692 to hold and we go for 2700 or 2708, if not higher, again. There is always the possibility of me being wrong and patterns failing. So below 2660 the bears are favored to test 2646 and below that bulls have to defend the minor bull trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 2630-2640.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2645 - 2700
bull case: Bulls in full control, still. Decent pullback on the daily chart, which was bought and bulls are free to trade higher again for the third leg up. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 2545.
bear case: Bears tried multiple times but bulls bought it all. Next stage is giving up. Most bears have stops 2685 or latest 2695. If they somehow manage to get below 2660, they want a retest of 2646 and I really can’t see them breaking that price without touching 2700 again. If bears were strong, we would have seen it by now. Obviously an event can always happen but you can’t bet on it. Right now it’s technically still a contracting triangle and we could test 2665 again.
Invalidation is above 2685 and above 2695.
short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 2660
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2665 after market showed it does not want to go lower at bar 2.