Off Beat Adjusted Audited Intrinsic Value @ FYE 2023Off Beat Adjusted Audited Intrinsic Value
(logically derived MagicFormula Merits Scores Adjusted Audited ROIC methodology @ka PEROIC 1 methodology)
@ FYE 2023 Audited Financial Report
= 100×(18,345+115−1,898−5−4−90)÷(57,412+115−1,898−5−4−90+388+119+408+107)×(18,345+115−1,898−5−4−90)÷363,229
= RM 1.319
INFOTEC trade ideas
$KLSE-INFOTEC: Intrinsic Value (based on IMPEGFS) INDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Integrated Magic PEG Formula Scores (IMPEGFS) @ Quoted Stock Price RM 0.81 (the higher the better)
= √
= √
= 2.8400426922
Intrinsic Value (based on IMPEGFS)
= IMPEGFS × Quoted Stock Price
= 2.8400426922 × 0.81
= 2.8400426922 × 0.81
= RM 2.30
or
= √ × EPS
= √(58.85×32) × 0.053
= RM 2.30
$KLSE-INFOTEC: EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Ratio @ RM0.81 @ FYE2023 FRINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Ratio @ RM0.81 @ FYE2023 FR Result
EV @ RM0.81
= 0.81×363,229+389+119+407+107-10,780-8,445
= 276,012.49
EBIT
= 25,792+38
= 25,830
EV/EBIT
= 276,012.49÷25,830
= 10.6857332559
EBIT Growth
= 100×(25,830÷16,683-1)
= 54.8282682971%
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Ratio @ RM0.81 @ FYE2023 FR Result
= 10.6857332559÷54.8282682971
= 0.194894597 extremely undervalued
Thought on Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approachINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
youtu.be/GUV3GHUePRk?si=lHLAJSyDMlfbbbzb
Joel Greenblatt has decrypted the secret of valuation, that there are 2 ultimate variables in determining the intrinsic value, namely ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) and E/P (the inverse is P/E).
This insight is in line with the essences enshrined in Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's valuation mental models :
1. “Investors should remember their scorecard isn't computed using the Olympic-diving method:
Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count.
If you're right abt a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand & enduring, the payoff is the same as if you should correctly analyze an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting & complex variables.
- Warren Buffett -
2. “The higher return a business can earn on its capital, the more cash it can produce, the more value is created. Over time, it is hard for investors to earn returns that are much higher than the underlying business’ return on invested capital.”
- Warren Buffett -
3. “Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much difference than a six percent return – even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.”
- Charlie Munger -
Which approach do you prefer?
Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approach or Peter Lynch's PEG approach?
Is it possible to merge Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approach and Peter Lynch's PEG approach into a single formula?
Kindly figure it out, it's worth to do so.
$KLSE-INFOTEC: Thought: Profit Per EmployeeINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Wishfully the Gross Profit per Employee could return, stage by stage, to RM 740k for FYE2024 & RM 848k for FYE 2025 with ever increasing Revenues.
With RM 740k Gross Profit per Employee, that would translate to around RM 370k Net Profit per Employee.
With RM 848k Gross Profit per Employee , that would translate to around RM 424k Net Profit per Employee.
Or more, if the regional subsidiaries expansion in China, India, Singapore and Japan can bear more growth fruit in Revenues with the recent high GPM and NPM maintained.
$KLSE-INFOTEC FYE2023 Number of workforce (Employees)INDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Number of workforce (Employees):
26 permanent + 5 contract
= 31 employees in total
(dated LPD 23 May 2022, reported in IPO Prospectus dated 20 June 2022, page 132)
60 employees in total
(dated 31 May 2023, reported in NST News).
The number of employees have been doubled in a year, indicating rapid and aggressive APAC regional expansions have taken place.
Important point emphasized in the NST news: The team is still growing in line with its expansion drive.
That would translate into that more employees are expected onboard driven by continual business growth and in turn additional employees will push growth further on.
$KLSE-INFOTEC FYE 2023 Segments' GPM StudiesINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
FYE 2023 Segments' GPM Studies:
IT Infrastructure Solutions Segment GPM
= (19,142÷43,551)×(43,145÷43,551)
= 43.54%
Cybersecurity Solutions Segment GPM
= (990÷2,994)×(2,990÷2,994)
= 33.02%
Managed IT Services and Other IT
Services Segment GPM (Recurring)
= (16,686÷22,378)×(20,563÷22,378)
= 68.52%
Trading of Ancillary Hardware and Software Segment GPM
= (935÷5,374)×(5,231÷5,374)
= 16.94%
Pretty Impressive!
Infoline Tec Group @KLSE: Revenue FYE 2024Forecast by APEX SECINFOTEC@KLSE
Apex Securities
academy.apexetrade.com/filestore/research-pdf/20240226_Infotec_4QFY23_Results.pdf
Revenue FYE 2024Forecast by Apex Securities
= 120.5M
Assuming the Net Profit Margin remains at 26.8%:
Net Profit FYE 2024 Forecast
= 120.5×0.268
= 32.294M
$KLSE-INFOTEC: EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth MultipleINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Multiple
EV@RM0.805
= 0.805×363,229+389+119+407+107-10,780-8,445
= 274,196.345
EBIT
= 25,792+38
= 25,830
EV/EBIT
= 274,196.345÷25,830
= 10.6154217964
EBIT Growth
= 100×(25,830÷16,683-1)
= 54.8282682971%
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Multiple
= 10.6154217964÷54.8282682971
= 0.1936122027 Extremely Low, Extremely Undervalued
INFOLINE TEC GROUP@KLSE : OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based ValuationINFOLINE TEC GROUP@KLSE
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Valuation
OCROICₘₒ𝒹
= 100×(6,325+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))÷(58,317+4,879+407+107+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))
= 33.0185706115
OCPS
= (6,325+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))÷363,229
= RM 0.0778792442
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Intrinsic Value (min) with 3.5% inflation rate
= RM 0.0778792442×(1-(1÷1.035)^33.0185706115)÷(1-(1÷1.035))
= RM 1.5634207107
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Intrinsic Value (max)
= RM 33.0185706115×0.0778792442
= RM 2.5714613246
Twin Compoundings INDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Dividend declaration has proposed two possible outcomes.
1. Trade receivables received from customers are inflating the free cash flow and retained earnings.
2. Higher revenues and profits are foreseen with orders from Malaysia, India and perhaps China as the economy is improving in the said countries, not to leave out Singapore and Japan markets.
3. Dividend (DPS) compounding kicking off denotes the Profit (EPS) Growth sustainability.
4. Profit (EPS) Growth is the driver of intrinsic value compounding which will kick off the investors' capital compounding sooner or later.
Infoline Tec Group is a 5 stars stock in light capital business model which Warren Buffett has advocated to retailers to invest in for capital compounding + dividend compounding.