AAL trade ideas
"AAL" Diamond of IndecisionSince March 2020, Congress has awarded passenger and cargo airlines,airports and contractors nearly $90 billion in government assistance and low-cost loans,
including two prior rounds of payroll assistance for U.S. passenger airlines totaling $40 billion.
The $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package approved by the U.S. House last week includes another $14 billion for passenger airlines to keep workers on payrolls for an additional six months. It awaits action by the U.S. Senate.
AAL Target 28It should present another buy bellow 20, I am watching for 22 breakout. I am in this from 13.24.
UAL and AAL are good for 6months hold with summer around the block every soul is getting ready to jump out of WFM(I am for sure :P). J&J vaccine will also ease a lot of travel in couple of months. Both have good alliances, Domestic travel is already pickup next should be international.
AAL ready for liftoffIf we take a look at the weekly chart, a textbook cup and handle has formed. We had the fall last March with a run back up to $20 to mark out break out. Over the course of the year it has dropped and consolidated on low volume and once again ran up to $20 on increased volume.
This formed our “Cup” and our handle has formed on a healthy dip with decreasing volume.
This week marks the breakout of that year long formation and is an exceptional buy.
Looking past the technical analysis, one could also point out that the vaccine news is looking great for this industry. That prospect could boost the outlook for airlines to prices from over a year ago.
This is also a safe enough industry that is essential to the world’s economy, and as we know our government will never let them fail.
Big big thumbs up on this.
AAL: It's flying today! How to proceed now?Hello traders and investors! It has been nearly 1 month since my last analysis about it, let’s see if AAL behaved the way it should.
First, in the 1h chart, AAL respected the key point we mentioned in my last analysis, the black line at $ 16.47 with an astonishing precision, and it hit it multiple times, without losing it. This point was a previous resistance, and it worked as a support, as we thought it would, thanks to the Principle of Polarity . And if you missed my last analysis, the link to it is below, as usual.
It triggered several pivot points , the last one at $ 18.82, and we have a little gap at the yellow area. If it gets filled this week, it could be an Exhaustion Gap , and this could create another congestion on AAL.
Right now, it is a little to buy it, as the optimal buy point was near the $ 16.47, and we are quite close to the target I mentioned last month, but since it is engaged in a bull trend, pullbacks to the 21 ema could offer some nice opportunities to buy too.
Now, let’s see the daily chart:
In the daily chart, AAL is heading to the target we mentioned in my last analysis, the $ 22.80, which is one of the previous resistances, and nothing unusual is happening here.
The volume decreased during last month’s accumulation, which is a typical trait of just an accumulation before the explosion, and the 21 ema is pointing up, evidencing the bull trend and working as a support level in the future. What’s more, the volume increased in the last 2 days, and today is finally above the 21 moving average I like to put in the volume as well.
These are good signs but be prepared for pullbacks, but they could offer an opportunity for the late buyers. Any pullback to the 21 ema in the daily cart as well could be a nice opportunity if you missed the entry point on AAL. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses on stocks and indices. And please, support this idea if you liked it!
Thank you very much.
American Airline.***Based on analysts offering 12 month price targets for AAL in the last 3 months.
The average price target is $14.14 with a high estimate of $20 and a low estimate of $10
Analyst Firms Making Recommendations
B OF A GLBL RES
COWEN & COMPANY
DEUTSCHE BK SEC
JEFFERIES & CO.
JP MORGAN SECUR
RAYMOND JAMES
SEAPORT GLOBAL
STIFEL NICOLAUS
WOLFE RESEARCH
Analyst
$14.14
*** Short interest is around 16 % as of 27.1.2021
2 day to cover.
No buying & selling kind of scary !!! or nothing worthy to take action for !!!
***Insider Ownership Percentage: 1.03%
Insider Buying (Last 12 Months): $0.00
Insider Selling (Last 12 Months): $0.00
Strong institutional ownership is an indication that hedge funds, large money managers
and endowments believe a company will outperform the market over the long term
Well AAL is at he bottom here !!! Hedges are not interested i guess !!!
****73.1% of Alaska Air Group shares are owned by institutional investors
-60.9% of United Airlines shares are owned by institutional investors
-59.5% of Delta Air Lines shares are owned by institutional investors
--44.4% of American Airlines Group shares are owned by institutional investors
***Period Ending: Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017
Total Assets 62008 59995 60580 52785
Total Liabilities 8875 60113 60749 53565
Total Equity -6867 -118 -169 -780
AAL ideaAmerican Airlines has been bearish since 2018 and quite choppy over the past year. We managed to get in early an early entry on the 1st of June last year and it realized within 10 days (see below). The company's prospective is still not solid even though the recent earnings beat expectations. With the furloughs, lockdown restrictions, finance and debt repayment constraints, the company is faced with a difficult job ahead of them.
However, its load factor and efforts to restructure can be seen as a good attempt to some extent. The vaccine developments and distributions have been also positive. The price is above the 200MA and slightly on the 50MA. I would ideally like to see a strong breakout at this long downtrend ($21 level) or have it back around the $14 level for me to add it on my watchlist again. Those who are already in should hold and others must just wait patiently.
Ready to fly..?Potential gain: 60/+100%
Reward/Risk:7-14
Timeframe: 3-6 months
I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion.
This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..!
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