AAPL - 1H - BEARISH FLAG - SHORT POSITIONIn this chart we have spotted Bearish flag with expectation it will go down. we take reasonable size entry & exit points. But thing is missing which is DIVERGENCE
AAPL trade ideas
Time to short AppleApple Stock Analysis - March 7, 2024
Closing Price: $169.00
Daily Chart Insights:
The daily chart reveals that Apple’s stock price is nearing the dynamic support line. At $169.00, it’s hovering close to this critical level.
However, there’s a cautionary signal: the appearance of a yellow cross, indicating strong downward momentum. This suggests that Apple might decline significantly, potentially going below $166.55 before any meaningful pullback.
If the price indeed falls below $166.55 and the yellow cross persists, the previously supportive level could now act as resistance, potentially driving the price even lower.
Weekly Chart Observations:
On the weekly chart, Apple still has room to fall. The downtrend appears to be intact.
Selling volume remains high, indicating sustained bearish sentiment.
Potential for Further Decline:
Considering recent news and technical signals, there’s a possibility that Apple’s stock could drop all the way down to $152. Here are some factors supporting this claim:
Barclays Analyst Downgrade:
Barclays analysts recently cut their rating for Apple due to concerns about weak iPhone sales. This downgrade has raised questions about whether Apple’s shares can sustain their record surge. As a result, the stock dipped by 3%.
Slippery Start in 2024:
At the beginning of the year, Apple faced a slippery start. It was downgraded to “underweight” by Barclays, with an adjusted price target of $160—a 17% decline from the previous closing price of $192.53.
Supply Chain Concerns:
Investors were spooked by new supply chain concerns. A key supplier suspended some of its manufacturing operations in China, leading to a 2.7% drop in Apple’s stock price.
Ming-Chi Kuo’s Report:
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report indicating that iPhone shipments could decline by as much as 15% year over year. This news further adds to the bearish sentiment surrounding Apple’s stock.
Given these factors, it’s plausible that Apple’s stock could indeed fall below the current levels.
aapl → are you ready for a dump?!hello guys...
as you can see apple engulfed the last support and demand zone as a flip area!
on the other hand, made two QM patterns! we can consider it as QMC and QMR too!
those two blue areas are great for getting short positions!
target is 181.6 and 171.3.
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Apple (AAPL): Rangebound with Support in Sight?Key technical levels and potential price swings for Apple stock.
Apple (AAPL) has been trading sideways within a well-defined range of roughly $168.25 - $197.30. The recent price action has seen the stock gravitate towards the lower boundary of this consolidation zone.
Technicals hint at a potential reversal:
Given the stock's close proximity to support around $168.25, a rebound back toward the weekly pivot point could be on the horizon. This would align with a return to the midpoint of the established trading range. Additionally, the presence of a double-top pattern near the upper end of the range bolsters the support argument.
Breach of support could trigger a selloff:
However, a break below the critical $168.25 level could ignite further selling pressure, potentially pushing the stock lower. Notably, a breakdown below the neckline of the double-top formation would provide a strong bearish signal, significantly increasing the likelihood of a more substantial decline.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
AAPL Bear is taking over.. Avoid BuyAAPL is one of the easiest stock to trade which able to easily detect by MCDX
Whenever there's Buy Turtle Signal (B) with BUYING Volume / Banker, it is likely that AAPL will go up..
likewise, if there's Sell Turtle Signal (S) with SELLING Volume / Retailer, then it is very likely that AAPL will go down... Recently Selling signal is out with Significant Selling volume detect in MCDX..
AAPL Double RetracementOn January5th we'd retraced the uptrend the first time and finished the attempt to change the trend on January 17th with another just retracement. The rise that has followed after this failed attempt has been corrected by over 38 % just today. I consider the trend being still positive and expect another attempt to rise within this week.
What do you think about the AAPL Weekly chart?Scenario 1: Continued Ascent Towards $200
This scenario hinges on several positive factors. Firstly, strong iPhone sales, driven by the upcoming release of a highly anticipated new model, could significantly boost revenue. Secondly, the continued growth of Apple's services segment, including iCloud, Apple Music, and App Store, could provide a reliable source of recurring income. Finally, positive developments in the metaverse and augmented reality (AR) spaces, where Apple is heavily invested, could lead to significant future growth opportunities.
Scenario 2: Sideways Consolidation
This scenario assumes AAPL remains within a specific price range for an extended period. This could occur due to several factors, such as:
Market uncertainty: Global economic concerns or geopolitical tensions could dampen investor sentiment, leading to a cautious approach towards growth stocks like AAPL.
Valuation concerns: While Apple remains a strong company, some investors might believe its current valuation already reflects its future potential, limiting significant near-term price appreciation.
Waiting for a catalyst: Investors might be waiting for a clear trigger, such as a major product launch or positive earnings report, to push the stock price higher.
Scenario 3: Price Correction Towards $125
This scenario, while less likely, cannot be entirely discounted. It could materialize due to:
Disappointing earnings: If Apple falls short of analyst expectations in its upcoming earnings report, it could trigger a sell-off, driving the price down.
Supply chain disruptions: Continuing supply chain issues could hinder iPhone production and sales, impacting revenue and investor confidence.
Increased competition: The tech landscape is constantly evolving, and new players or innovative products from competitors could challenge Apple's market share and profitability.
It's important to remember that these are just potential scenarios, and the actual future of AAPL is uncertain.
apple falling towards big support areadue to negative sentiment apple is falling towards big support area. if it falls down to this area, there is a lot of buying support. may be good chance to buy at this area. but wait for confirmation that it is bouncing back from support.
Apple,double top - SHORTenter price -161.25
stop loss -175.95
take profit -131.86
(weekly timeframe)
DETAILS:At the weekly time frame the price brokeout of a flag pattern and made a strong uptrend for a while that end up as the all time price high .
The price tried to break twice the resistance that the price recored made and made a double top pattern .
we can see the recent big bearish candle that moving towards the support .
(for my opinion the breakout will already occur this week)
just waiting for a strong breakout .
AAPL taking back the lead over GOOGTrend shows time for a change in line with future AI push from Apple
AAPL Wave 5 Might be Complete. Always have to worry about additional spike outs in wave 5's but the case for an AAPL top is improving.
We made the parabolic rally we'd expect to see in a wave 5 top mentioned last year.
Over the last while we're stalled out and recently we have 4 hour charts starting to look like bear breaks.
A completed AAPL wave 5 would be a major event.
Apple possible bearish outlook Everything is explained and visible on the chart, we are in front of a huge rising wedge which consist basically of the whole life of this stock. We will soon enter the third period of the life of this stock, each period lasting 22 years, which could see the stock breaking out of this rising wedge formation.
AAPL BUY+++AAPL is oversold here and due for a bounce to $175 area then my longer term target of $155 should be seen.
AAPL may have made a big bullish wave 4All of 2022 may prove to be only the penultimate move of the bull trend rather than the end itself. While the selling was strong at various times in 2022, we did not break the 38 fib and we did not trigger a capitulation style signal (Usually even if it wicked we see some sign of a strong break by now).
Above the last lows, bears have a lot of risk of AAPL running the high. These extensions may go as far as a 161 extension of the drop (Which would be a big strong move). It's also possible it makes a one tick trap style move as discussed in indices.
APPLE Long-term buying commencing.Apple (AAPL) is exactly -15% down since the December 14 2023 High and is approaching the Support Zone of the October 26 2023 Low. We are currently on the 3rd major correction of the last 18 months and being that close to both the Support Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, suggests that institutional buying should be initiated.
If the current overall market volatility evolves into a short-term correction towards the Fed Rate Decision later this month, then there is always the possibility of Apple experiencing another -10% decline. But the upside even from the current level is greater at almost +30% and that is a conservative target based purely on the Higher highs trend-line since the August 17 2022 High.
We recommend buying now and if the price drops more as mentioned, a final buy on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been untouched for almost 8 years (since June 28 2016)! Our Target for late Q2 is $215.00. Note also that the 1D RSI hasn't been that low (oversold at 23.00) since February 02 2018, which adds more to the bullish case.
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$AAPL is breaking below the strong resistance NASDAQ:AAPL broke below 180 and is marking the upside cycle end. In the video you will see a detailed technical Elliott Wave analysis along with price action and trade setup
$APPL aiming for an IHS pattern perhaps given low RSI$APPL plan for the next few days is based on the potential test of $165.5. I think once we see action around this level, $APPL could bounce nicely to around $175. The chart does not favors a steady recovery. I think as long as $APPL's management is unable to articulate a credible strategy around AI in the short term the stock will continue to be weak. Considering the low RSI, I'd favor a bounce. I think $APPL could support the market if they tank other magnificent 7. We may see NASDAQ:META tanking from the $490s into the $400s for example while $APPL takes of into the $180-190s by Q2 or so. Perhaps it is also a good time for the Board to consider replacing Tim Cook to a visionary, as Tim has been a good operator but for another time. We need someone like John Ives or similar. Let's see what the market brings for $APPL in the coming days. Here's a path that I see could develop> Inverse Head and Shoulders, repairing of some singles around 177-178, and then test of 180.9. Of course market makers will ensure to keep most premiums as usual.
AAPL Drops Below $174 to $177.50 Support ZoneAAPL continues to show weakness by dropping below the light blue support zone for a second time. AAPL is trading below support and there is likely to be a short-term rebound here. I would look for a bounce around $165 to $168.
Let's look at the VALUE of $AAPL at $3 TrillionWhat do we get when we buy NASDAQ:AAPL shares for a valuation of $3 trillion?
We get $100 billion in free cash flow. (3 year average free cash flow is ~$100B)
Over 10 years revenues have more than doubled from $170B in 2013 to $383B and debt has jumped from $17B to FWB:95B to pay dividends and to buy back stock which has dropped from 26B shares to under 16B shares.
So, if you get another 10 years of this performance, NASDAQ:AAPL free cash flow will reach $200B and provide a 6.6% free cash flow yield.
You can already earn 10% free cash flow yields in hundreds of other stocks now and not 10 years in the future.
We don't need to predict the future movement of Apple shares but instead we need to know what our probabilities are and make our decisions accordingly.
I have been a big fan of Apple products and use iMacs, iPads, iPhones and have used ApplePay a bit lately. My first Apple was the Macintosh in 1986 back in college and then the Apple LaserWriter which was a revolution in printing. I even used Macintosh on the trading desk at S.G. Warburg & Co, Inc (Now UBS) and my quotes were faster than the fastest Wall Street computers at the time. So I have plenty of good memories and have been an advocate for Apple my entire adult life (40 years so far).
My question here is: What upside is there remaining for NASDAQ:AAPL ? What is the risk of hanging in there for that upside? What is a better return available for your investment capital?
The answers to these questions are unknown, of course, but are the key answers to seek.
The chart above is first
1. Stock Price
2. Free Cash Flow FY
3. PS Ratio
4. Avg Basic Shares O/S
5. Total Revenue FY
6. Market Capitalization
These are the key factors to track over long periods of time and now with inflation over 10 years as high as it is, the inflation factor is even more important to find the companies that can increase prices to match inflation and which are struggling under heavy competition and no ability to cut costs and raise prices.
This is a great time to ask yourself the key questions and decide to re-allocate your NASDAQ:AAPL investment into many other, more attractive investments.
Time will tell if that was wise or not, in hindsight.
Wishing you all peace and prosperity.
Tim
January 22, 2024 12:37PM EST
$AAPL Finally OversoldNASDAQ:AAPL finally oversold on the daily. Taking a swing for calls 180C .47 for this week.
