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AAPL trade ideas

APPLE Best buy opportunity of the last 6 years.Back in August 02 2024 (see chart below), we introduced this model on Apple Inc. (AAPL) that had high probabilities of success at predicting Cycle peaks: We may have not hit $280 but $260 is close enough especially if you are a long-term investor that values buying low and selling high. Now that the price has corrected by -35% and just hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 10 years (since July 2016), it is time to revisit this macro-model once again. As you can see, -35% corrections have been present on every Cycle since the January 2009 bottom of the Housing Crisis. The pattern that the stock follows is very specific and it starts with a prolonged correction, the Bear Cycle essentially, which is a lengthy correction phase, such as the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 2015/16 China slowdown and the 2022 Inflation Crisis. Then a very structured uptrend phase starts in the form of a Channel Up that leads the market to its first peak, followed by a shorter, quicker correction phase that tests the 1M MA50 and rebounds. The rebound is the final bull phase of the Cycle, usually strong and sharp and leads to the eventual Cycle Top and then starts then new Bear Cycle (prolonged correction). Right now the current 4-month correction is technically, based on this model, the new shorter correction. Being more than -35% in size, the last one larger than this was the previous short correction of the last Trade War in October 2018 - January 2019 (-38%). The similarities don't stop here but extend to the 1M RSI as well, which just entered its 25-year mega Buy Zone that has been holding since December 2000 and the Dotcom Crash! In fact the last time Apple's 1M RSI was this low was in June 2013, which was the bottom of the 1st short correction on our chart. This remarkable symmetry just shows how similar the current phase is with its previous ones and if the symmetry continues to hold, we should be expecting a strong recovery to start. Even if the price makes a slightly deeper low as -38% (like the January 2019 bottom), we may still expect the minimum rise that it had all those years shown on the chart, +145%, which translates to a potential $390 Target long-term. It is in times like this, that patient long-term investors filter out the news noise, make their unbiased moves and maximize their profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot
1
Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025 - Apple reversed from the support zone - Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00 Apple earlier reversed up from the support zone surrounding the long-term support level 170.00 (which has been reversing the price since the end of 2023) – standing very far below the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from the support level 170.00 stopped the previous weekly downward impulse wave 3 from February. Given the strength of the support level 170.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Apple can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 180.00.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by FxProGlobal
4/8/25 - $aapl - why it's the main stock to watch4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AAPL why it's the main stock to watch - up until recently the TVC:TNX (10Y) was headed lower. this changed in the last few sessions. let's leave the various "explanations" beyond this (perhaps the comments) and simply focus on price. - the reason NASDAQ:AAPL is of particular importance is given it's supreme weighting in the SP:SPX (up until recently the largest cap, now NASDAQ:MSFT as of today), but more importantly it's bond-like cash flow stream and high ROE's given strong brand. this affords investors (even those who eschew tech generally, like uncle warren) the ability to "look through" various disruptive and often more terminal-weighted names, even if they're megacaps as well, like $nvda. the current fcf yield on NASDAQ:AAPL is almost identical to the 10Y. - when you look at the above chart which plots NASDAQ:AAPL vs. the NASDAQ:TLT (price of apple divided by the 10Y), you'll notice two obvious things (and i've used heikin ashi candles to further underscore the points). 1/ aapl has consistently outperformed the long bond in the last decade+ 2/ period of multi-month drawdown vs. the 10Y have averaged about 80 days and ~30% lower, nearly identical to where we are today - when we consider the "reinvestment risk" of something like the 10Y for something like aapl, and considering the historical parallels, one would ask the question "is this over". and that's why this is so interesting/ important to watch $aapl. - beyond it's growing digital services contribution to the business, the core product (which delivers these services) is still mainly based in the "china complex", whether that's assembly, or within a headline's scare away in Taiwan (w/ their chips). so it's *very* exposed to what's happening here and a liquid canary for sentiment as to what's happening. - and beyond a resolution to the tariff debacle (if i may be so polite to call it that and stick to the points I'm trying to make in this post), the 10Y is behaving in a way where confidence might be shifting more toward a pseudo-sovereign LIKE APPLE given it's bond-like characteristics (points above) versus this gov't issued IOU. In other words, would you trust NASDAQ:AAPL stock (or even their bonds for that matter) to appreciate (or the yield to decline) versus the US 10Y. And there is the funny conundrum... and the paradigm shift happening in real time. Said another way: 1/ if the 10Y starts to behave, it's likely because there's some market belief of tariff resolution and a path forward (let's call it "look thru" or "reduced uncertainty") and in this scenario NASDAQ:AAPL like outperforms any benefit to lower yields given the recent pullback and given the chart/ comments above. 2/ and if the opposite is true, and the market continues to call BS on this whole ordeal, the 10Y is likely to dramatically underperform NASDAQ:AAPL 's stock price and/or the bottom for NASDAQ:AAPL one could argue is much more limited (perhaps 10-15%, at most 20%) vs. the 10Y (TLT), and from there the risk-reward (the second-order implication of this) is still an NASDAQ:AAPL share price that, again, dramatically outperforms the 10Y. While is all to say: I am closely watching NASDAQ:AAPL as if it were the most important economic variable in this whole equation and believe it's much closer to not only a trade-able bottom but potentially a multi-year floor price than the market's current sentiment would lead you to believe. And without getting too long winded (which this already is), the similar logic applies albeit to a slightly lesser degree for NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT and a few other mega caps ( NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:GOOGL ) each with their own quirks/ "features" or "drawbacks" in the current climate/ topic. So while I'm still packing 25% cash on the books, eventually this old man is going to call BS. And the big liquid stuff will be a good place to re-accumulate before we can distribute into the slightly more nuanced names (of which I own a few - if u follow u know). Let's see. Hope it helps your mosaic. Lmk (and especially) if you disagree. V
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by VROCKSTAR
(AAPL) Crumbling in Chaos? Here's How Smart Traders Might Pivot 🔍 Market Mood: Everything’s Broken, Or Is It? We're not just watching candles here — we're watching psychology unravel. This isn't your average downtrend. The current chart screams capitulation, and the market isn't following textbook TA. EMAs, Fibs, CHoCH, BOS — they’re all being run over by macro fear. But chaos is a signal too — if you know how to listen. 🔍 Technical View — The Breakdown Inside the Breakdown * Trendlines? Crushed. The clean diagonal resistance failed to offer a bounce. Instead, AAPL dropped like a rock off a cliff. * Structure: AAPL attempted a weak pullback but immediately rejected lower, forming new lows. There’s no confirmation of CHoCH or any reclaim. * Current support: $170.56 (barely holding). Below this? It’s an air pocket to $165 and possibly $150 based on historical liquidity voids. * MACD: Turning down again — bearish crossover is alive. * Stoch RSI: Also curling lower, suggesting momentum is building for further downside. 🧠 Insight — When TA Fails, Price Memory Doesn't TA isn’t “failing” — it’s evolving. In chaotic environments, price memory becomes king. * Price memory zones: Think about levels where mass volume occurred before consolidation — not just lines. These zones become magnets. * Liquidity pockets between $175–$165 suggest algos will keep hunting stops there. So what should traders do when TA doesn’t give clear answers? 📊 TrendInfo Snapshot: * MA, DMI, RSI, MACD, Stoch, BBP — All Bearish * Fear Index: -21.68 * Recommendation: Sell (50%) This isn’t just a red dashboard — it’s a sentiment echo. Most retail traders are now too scared to buy, and that’s usually when big money starts accumulating slowly under everyone’s nose. 🧨 Options GEX — Gamma Exposure Tells The Hidden Story * Highest Negative GEX / PUT Support: $170 — A strong defense line… for now. * Put Positioning: 44.8% of the chain leans bearish. * Call Resistance: $195–$202 range — thick walls. * IVR: 113.5 — volatility is premium-priced. * Options Oscillator: Red blocks dominate — no sign of bullish reversal, yet. The takeaway? Market makers are likely short gamma, which means they’re forced sellers into dips. This creates momentum cascades unless a liquidity event reverses the flow. 🧭 Strategy — Don’t Predict, Prepare 1. If AAPL Reclaims $175+ with Volume: That’s the first sign big buyers stepped in. Look for confirmation via a CHoCH and MACD cross-up. 2. If $170 breaks with momentum: It's not just retail panic — institutions may be offloading too. Watch for a flush into $165 or even $150 for a fast scalp or long-term buy zone. 3. No-man’s zone ($170–$175): This is where patience pays off. Let price prove itself. 💭 Final Thoughts: Adapt Your Lens In chaotic times, don’t rely on indicators alone. Use a confluence of TA, sentiment, and price behavior. This is the moment where reactive trading — not predictive gambling — separates pros from the rest. This chaos isn’t the end — it’s the forge. The next rally will be shaped by traders who learned to read beyond lines and candles. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by BullBearInsights
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners. As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate. Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured. According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market. Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support. A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves. Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone. In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by DEXWireNews
Apple on sale who said Wall Street has no discountsOn the NASDAQ:AAPL 1W chart, the price has dropped sharply, likely due to recent trade tensions with China, but it is now approaching a key support level that previously acted as resistance and triggered a strong rebound. The Ichimoku cloud (10, 20, 40, 10) indicates a bearish trend, although there are early signs that selling pressure may be weakening. At the same time, the Trend Strength Index (20, 10) is in oversold territory, suggesting that bearish momentum could be fading. If lower timeframes begin to show signs of reversal, this may signal the beginning of a long-term recovery. A possible entry between 200 and 175 with a stop loss below 163 could offer a favorable risk to reward opportunity for long-term investors. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by SupertradeOfficial
APPLE: There's Only One Relevant Level Safe chart as there's no breakdown PA at the top: - No SFP at the highs; - No MSB possible as there's no relevant HL structure because price never significantly pushed out of any structure. Basically: 2021-2025 PA is still one big structure; ---------------------------- $124.17 is the only clean level for an SFP: it's the most outstanding out of all the PA, but still not that outstanding. Therefore: the faster price gets to it, the stronger the level will be. Increased horizontality and the degree to which it stands out will diminish (it gets lost in time as time moves on...).
NASDAQ:AAPL
by EyyJasper
TEXTBOOK H&S REVERSAL TO 5* BREAKOUT LEVELSApple: Navigating Market Challenges and Capitalizing on Future Opportunities ---------------Breaking out after building long-term breakout-pattern, retesting it through Head & Shoulds reversal pattern at local top ~240$----------------------- As of today, Apple Inc. is experiencing significant market volatility, driven primarily by heightened recession fears and the impact of the yen carry trade. Recent market conditions have led to a noticeable drop in Apple's stock price, reflecting broader investor concerns about the global economic outlook. However, despite these challenges, there is a silver lining, and a target price of $240 is now within reach. Market Challenges The current downturn in Apple's stock can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors. Concerns about a potential recession have been exacerbated by central banks' tightening monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties. Additionally, fluctuations in the yen carry trade have added pressure on the stock, as investors reassess their risk exposure in light of changing interest rates. A Promising Outlook Despite these short-term setbacks, Apple is well-positioned to recover and thrive in the coming months. Many analysts believe that the worst may be behind us, as the company remains resilient with a strong balance sheet and a loyal customer base. Apple's ability to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions has been a hallmark of its success. The anticipated continuation of the supercycle is a key factor supporting this optimistic outlook. The impending release of Apple's next-generation products, including AI-powered phones, tablets, and Macs, is expected to drive a significant upgrade cycle. This innovation cycle could reignite consumer demand and bolster Apple's revenue growth. The Role of AI A crucial component of Apple's future growth strategy is its foray into artificial intelligence (AI). As the "Apple Intelligence" AI story unfolds, the company is poised to leverage AI to enhance its product offerings and create new customer experiences. The integration of AI into Apple's ecosystem will likely catalyze a new wave of demand, as consumers seek cutting-edge technology that offers greater functionality and personalization. Apple's investment in AI not only strengthens its competitive position but also opens up new revenue streams, particularly in areas such as augmented reality, machine learning, and personalized services. This strategic focus aligns with the broader industry trend of AI adoption, positioning Apple as a leader in this transformative field. Conclusion In conclusion, while Apple faces current market headwinds due to recession fears and the yen carry trade, the company's robust fundamentals and innovative pipeline suggest that brighter days are ahead. The anticipated upgrade cycle, coupled with the integration of AI into its product suite, presents a compelling growth opportunity. Investors with a long-term perspective may find Apple's current valuation attractive, with the potential for substantial gains as the company navigates these challenges and capitalizes on future opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by GER-Quality-Trades
AAPL- RECESSION FEARS & YEN CARRY TRADEApple: Navigating Market Challenges and Capitalizing on Future Opportunities As of today, Apple Inc. is experiencing significant market volatility, driven primarily by heightened recession fears and the impact of the yen carry trade. Recent market conditions have led to a noticeable drop in Apple's stock price, reflecting broader investor concerns about the global economic outlook. However, despite these challenges, there is a silver lining, and a target price of $240 is now within reach. Market Challenges The current downturn in Apple's stock can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors. Concerns about a potential recession have been exacerbated by central banks' tightening monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties. Additionally, fluctuations in the yen carry trade have added pressure on the stock, as investors reassess their risk exposure in light of changing interest rates. A Promising Outlook Despite these short-term setbacks, Apple is well-positioned to recover and thrive in the coming months. Many analysts believe that the worst may be behind us, as the company remains resilient with a strong balance sheet and a loyal customer base. Apple's ability to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions has been a hallmark of its success. The anticipated continuation of the supercycle is a key factor supporting this optimistic outlook. The impending release of Apple's next-generation products, including AI-powered phones, tablets, and Macs, is expected to drive a significant upgrade cycle. This innovation cycle could reignite consumer demand and bolster Apple's revenue growth. The Role of AI A crucial component of Apple's future growth strategy is its foray into artificial intelligence (AI). As the "Apple Intelligence" AI story unfolds, the company is poised to leverage AI to enhance its product offerings and create new customer experiences. The integration of AI into Apple's ecosystem will likely catalyze a new wave of demand, as consumers seek cutting-edge technology that offers greater functionality and personalization. Apple's investment in AI not only strengthens its competitive position but also opens up new revenue streams, particularly in areas such as augmented reality, machine learning, and personalized services. This strategic focus aligns with the broader industry trend of AI adoption, positioning Apple as a leader in this transformative field. Conclusion In conclusion, while Apple faces current market headwinds due to recession fears and the yen carry trade, the company's robust fundamentals and innovative pipeline suggest that brighter days are ahead. The anticipated upgrade cycle, coupled with the integration of AI into its product suite, presents a compelling growth opportunity. Investors with a long-term perspective may find Apple's current valuation attractive, with the potential for substantial gains as the company navigates these challenges and capitalizes on future opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by GER-Quality-Trades