Amazon remains a dominant force in e-commerce and cloud**Direction:** **LONG**
**LONG Targets:**
- **T1 = $195.80**
- **T2 = $199.00**
**Stop Levels:**
- **S1 = $188.00**
- **S2 = $185.00**
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in AMZN.
**Key Insights:**
Amazon remains a dominant force in e-commerce and cloud computing, but growth concerns have recently pressured its stock. Professional traders emphasize the importance of AWS (Amazon Web Services) as a growth driver, despite recent performance discrepancies compared with competitors like Microsoft Azure. Technical traders also note that Amazon is consolidating around key support levels, with reduced implied volatility that could indicate forthcoming price stabilization or upward momentum. Sentiment is mixed, but traders are gearing up for possible resilience given potential catalysts.
**Recent Performance:**
Amazon’s stock has seen a gradual recovery from prior declines earlier this year. Still, the stock remains 13% lower year-over-year compared to a modest 3% decline in the S&P 500. This muted performance reflects concerns around short-term macroeconomic challenges, such as slower growth in AWS and tariff changes. The recent price movement indicates a trading range and decreased volatility, suggesting less aggressive downside selling.
**Expert Analysis:**
Expert opinions signal Amazon remains structurally intact with a strong long-term outlook, although short-term headwinds persist. The cloud segment moderation is highlighted as a key challenge, but analysts remain optimistic with broader revenue trends, including Amazon's diversification initiatives into healthcare and logistics. In technical trading terms, a break above the $192 resistance zone may confirm bullish momentum, while a breach below $185 could signal further weakness.
**News Impact:**
News surrounding tariff adjustments and Amazon’s ambitious but high-cost Project Kuiper dominate recent headlines. Import tariff changes impact margins, but traders see efforts to roll out satellite-based internet projects as a testament to Amazon's innovation drive. Satellite deployment challenges may take the spotlight away from near-term earnings performance, adding speculation on long-term growth factors.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Amazon's recent consolidation near its support zone and technical signals indicate a favorable long setup for traders anticipating a breakout above $192. Focus on maintaining stop levels diligently and adjusting targets if momentum shifts unexpectedly. Long-term fundamentals remain supportive, reinforcing confidence in growth as risks moderate over time.
AMZN trade ideas
AMAZON I Technical Forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** Amazon Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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AMZN Earnings CallMarket Analysis
Looking at Amazon GETTEX:AMZ ahead of today's critical earnings announcement, I've identified a compelling pre-earnings call opportunity. Amazon is set to report its Q1 earnings after market close today, with Wall Street expecting revenue of $155.2 billion and EPS of $1.37, representing a 39.6% year-over-year growth in earnings.
Instrument Details:
NASDAQ:AMZN May 2, 2025 $207.50 CALL
Entry: $0.80
Target: $1.60 (100% gain)
Stop-Loss: $0.40 (50% risk)
Position Size: 1 contract
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (Today)
Technical Rationale & Market Context
Current market sentiment data for Amazon shows a positive news sentiment score of 0.72 (on a scale from -2 to 2), though short interest has recently increased slightly by 0.66%, indicating some growing caution among investors. GlowRoad Amazon has several potential positive catalysts in play, including its recent announcement of a $4 billion investment to build out its delivery network across rural areas by 2026, which could accelerate growth in previously underserved markets.
What makes this setup particularly attractive is the unusually high IV rank of 0.75, indicating significant options premium inflation ahead of earnings, combined with Amazon's strong performance last quarter where it delivered a substantial 25.14% earnings surprise ($1.86 EPS vs $1.49 estimated).
Risk/Reward Analysis
With an expected post-earnings move of 9.22%, our position has a favorable risk/reward profile:
Maximum profit: 100% ($0.80 to $1.60)
Maximum loss: 50% ($0.80 to $0.40)
Confidence level: 65%
Breakeven: AMZN needs to rise above $208.30 by expiration
Catalysts & Exit Strategy
The primary catalyst is tonight's earnings report after market close. I expect the current momentum to continue if:
AWS (Amazon Web Services) growth exceeds expectations
Retail margins show further improvement
Forward guidance is strong despite tariff concerns
AMZN Might Be Waking Up Here’s What I’m Seeing Across Timeframes 📈🔥
I’ve been tracking AMZN closely, and I want to lay out how I’m thinking through this setup using both the daily and 1-hour charts — plus how options flow might come into play this week. Also worth noting: today’s Trump meeting with investors could give broader market sentiment a lift, especially for big tech like AMZN, so I’m factoring that into how I approach this week.
Daily Chart – Big Picture Structure (1D):
On the daily, AMZN is still technically inside a descending channel. Price made a solid bounce recently, but it hasn’t broken out of the upper boundary yet. That resistance zone around $191–$194 has acted like a ceiling. If we can get through that, it could shift the whole structure.
That said, the MACD has crossed bullish, and Stoch RSI is curling back up. So there’s definitely some underlying strength trying to build. I’m thinking this isn’t the moment to go all-in long just yet, but it’s close — a clean breakout above $191 could open up that move toward $197 or even $200.
1-Hour Chart – Where I’m Dialing In (1H):
The 1-hour chart has been super helpful to frame my short-term bias. Price held the trendline beautifully after pulling back to the ORL zone around $180. We’ve been seeing higher lows and a grind back into the $187–$191 range.
What I like here is that the bounce was orderly. MACD’s going flat now, so we might just be consolidating before another push. If we can take out that $191 level — which lines up perfectly with gamma resistance on the options side — I’d expect momentum buyers to come in fast.
Options Flow (GEX & Gamma Zones):
Looking at the GEX data, the key level I’m watching is $191. That’s where the gamma shift happens — if price gets above that and holds, the dealer positioning could actually help accelerate the upside move. Above that, there’s a cluster of call walls at $195, $197.5, and $200. Those areas could slow things down, but also act as magnets if buyers step in.
To the downside, $180 is where I’m watching for support — both technical and from put walls. If AMZN drops back below $182.5, I’d be cautious and expect a fade toward $175 or lower.
How I’m Thinking Through the Week:
This setup is all about timing. If AMZN can ride the market mood — especially with Trump’s investor meeting today possibly boosting confidence — I could see it clearing $191 and pushing toward that $195+ range. In that case, I’d look at calls or debit spreads, probably with a 1–2 week window.
But if we stall again under $190 and lose $185, I’d flip bearish short-term and consider a quick fade to $180–$178 using puts or tight vertical spreads.
Wrapping Up:
I don’t think we’re in breakout territory yet on the daily — but it’s close. The 1H chart looks constructive, and the GEX data supports both a squeeze above $191 and strong support near $180. If Trump’s meeting sparks broader buying, AMZN could catch that tailwind.
Let’s see how we open — I’m staying flexible but ready to act.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just sharing my thoughts and how I’m approaching the trade using technicals and sentiment. Always manage your risk and have a plan.
AMZN | Long | Earnings + Buyback Potential | (April 2025)AMZN | Long | Earnings + Buyback Potential | (April 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
Amazon is showing strength as it bounces off the VWAP level. With earnings approaching and a history of buybacks, the setup looks promising for a rebound after months of decline.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Around $196
Stop Loss: Below VWAP support (adjust to your risk)
TP1: $205
TP2: $217
TP3: $240
Partial Exits: 50% around major resistance zone near TP1–TP2
3️⃣ Key Notes:
AMZN has been trending down since February but is now reacting positively. The upcoming earnings could be a bullish catalyst, especially if there's a buyback announcement. Earnings per share and revenue have been strong. Watch for reaction at key resistance levels, and track the broader market sentiment (especially QQQ/NQ correlations).
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Will revisit post-earnings to assess if momentum continues and whether to adjust targets or re-enter.
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AMZN HEADING INTO MAY 25;FAKE OUT, OR BREAK OUT?
Definitive down trend confirmation since topping in late JAN and then a hard rejection and move down in MID FEB.
I believe we have a bottom in early April and are beginning to set a new trend up, but could be a fake breakout and continuation of Down trend.
PREVIOUS NOTE (LISTED ON CHART from MID FEB)
RED HORIZONTAL LINE
"2021 resistance HEAVY. Now could be HEAVY support?
Down trend continues on close below red horizontal line.
Keep going to re-test rectangle.
Double confirmation above higher down trend line signals reversal to retest $218.50 up at"
New potential channel has it trying to break above that red line and rejecting slightly..
rebound this week and close above red horizontal??
OR
Head down to $171-172.50 range to test bottom of potential new channel.
For now.. WAITING to see what this week brings
Checking for next week right before fed meeting, trade deals being announced etc. Big impact on Amazon
NUETRAL.
Would love to hear thoughts.
DISCLAIMER:
This is not for TRADING
This is specifically for DCA in @ solid buy levels building portfolio over time long term.
Last purchase @ $165.50 on dip.
Looking for next entry.
TWAP and Chaikin's Osc vs VWAP Orders and VWAP IndicatorThere are two primary Order Types that the Professional Side of the market use.
1. Time Weighted at Average Price, aka TWAP , is used extensively by the Dark Pool Buy Side, Derivative Developers, and Sell Side Banks of record for Buybacks for corporations.
The TWAP can be set at a penny to few pennies spread and pings and transacts on a specific TIME to PRICE. It can be set to time intervals shorter or longer. This is why the stock market is called "fully automated".
TWAP is used most of the time. It is rare for the Giant Institutions to use VWAP orders due to the May 2010 FLASH CRASH when a fundamental trader of e-minis accidentally hit the VWAP order type rather than the TWAP order type which caused a massive collapse of all stocks as VWAPs accelerate selling as volume increases.
2. Volume Weighted at Price or VWAP is ALSO an ORDER TYPE. It is primarily used by Small Funds Managers and Small Asset Managers who are independents trading their customers' investment money actively, often intraday. Volume Weighted at price ORDER TYPES are also automated and ping to trigger the order to transact as volume increases.
This is an easy, simple way for a busy small fund manager to cope with the complexity of buying and selling stocks with 10,000 share lots to 100,000 share lots. These are the NEW "whales" of the market.
Professional Traders Swing trade 1 million to 5 million or higher share-lot sizes. The size of the orders of the professional trader has increased significantly in the past decade.
All of you need to be aware of the market participants on the professional side as they control 80% of the 1 trillion dollars that exchange hands daily on the US Markets.
Using Chaikin's Oscillator is ideal for tracking the Dark Pool Buy Side who create the bottoms. This excellent indicator analyzes all 3 data sets: price, volume and time. Thus, it can signal early that the Dark Pools have slowly started to accumulate over time and the runs down will turn into a bottom and then pro traders will nudge price to inspire VWAP orders from the Smaller funds managers.
The VWAP INDICATOR is excellent for tracking the smaller funds managers' trading activity and it ALSO has price, volume, and time in the formula. So this is great for those of you who need an indicator for following smaller funds activity as these smaller funds VWAP orders trigger more and more volume and then runs that can move up or down for several days.
TradingView has an awesome group of indicators to use. You should customize your indicators to which market participant groups you wish to track so that you can be ready and in a position before the big runs up or down.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
Volume Predicting Reversal. Trend line is established by second volume bar being within 45 degrees above or below previous bar high. The trend line is broken up first bar that forms at a greater than 45 degree angle (up or below) than last volume bar in trend.
One can confirm trend reversal by looking at candles that correspond to volume bars that indicate a trend reversal (greater than 45 degree angle from previous volume bar).
Amazon look interestingAmazon has a short target price around 202 then may have drop to be around 180 (240 min cycle). However, this dropping looks interesting for targeting long term price, which may up to 233 (2-3 months). By the way the above price may disappear if the price drop less than 165.
The strategy is waiting for buying after dropping from testing a resistant at 202$.
More important, it should be bought after it has a reversal candle.
What Amazon’s Chart Says Ahead of Next Week’s Earnings ReportAmazon NASDAQ:AMZN has been reducing its exposure to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports recently, and is also possibly slowing down its AI-related infrastructure purchases as the online-retail giant prepares to report Q1 earnings next week. What does fundamental and technical analysis say could happen next for the stock?
Let’s check it out:
Amazon’s Fundamental Analysis
AMZN plans to release its earnings after the bell next Thursday (May 1) in the middle of an interesting period for the company.
Published reports recently indicated that Amazon has been canceling orders from some Chinese vendors in a bid to avoid the Trump administration’s new 145% tariffs on the Asian nation’s goods.
After all, Amazon would be the "importer of record" for items purchased at the wholesale level, and that’s who actually gets Uncle Sam’s tariff bills.
Of course, the tariff situation remains murky, as the Trump administration appeared this week to seek a de-escalation of its trade wars with China and other countries.
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo this week released a research note implying that Amazon could possibly become the second hyper-scaler to slow down on AI-related infrastructure purchases.
The report posited that AMZN has put some leasing discussions for the co-location of its data centers on hold. If true, that would make Amazon the second hyper-scaler to ease AI-focused capital-expenditure spending, following the lead of its key cloud competitor Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT .
However, TD Cowen published its own research note on Monday that offered a potentially different explanation of what's going on at Amazon.
Cowen agreed that AMZN has been walking away from some co-location deals, but argued that the change stems from Amazon shifting to a preference for operating its data centers on company-owned properties.
Cowen noted that Amazon “continues to move ahead with powered shells and self-builds." The firm also pointed out that other major hyper-scalers Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL and Oracle NYSE:ORCL haven’t shown any signs of slowing down their collective appetite for securing increased capacity through co-location.
In fact, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that generative AI “is going to reinvent virtually every customer experience we know and enable altogether new ones about which we've only fantasized.”
He also said that’s why Amazon’s Amazon Web Services cloud business is “quickly developing the key primitives (or building blocks) for AI development.”
Jassy said those efforts includes such things as “custom silicon AI chips in Amazon Trainium to provide better price-performance on training and inference, highly flexible model-building and inference services in Amazon SageMaker and Amazon Bedrock, our own frontier models in Amazon Nova to provide lower cost and latency for customers’ applications and agent creation and management capabilities."
Hmm, does that sound like a CEO who’s cutting back on AI investment? Not to me.
Jassy did say that chips or GPUs are the reason why Amazon’s AI investments are so expensive, but added that those costs should be headed lower in the future.
Why? Because the firm's own Trainium2 chips offer performance that is 30% to 40% better in some ways than what the firm is purchasing from exterior providers.
That might not be so great for Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , but it doesn't sound like a problem for Amazon.
All in, the Street is looking for Amazon to report about $1.36 of Q1 GAAP earnings per share on roughly $155 billion of revenue.
That would represent a 38.8% EPS gain compared to the company’s year-ago results of $0.98, as well as more than 8% y/y growth in revenues.
While many investors would view such year-on-year growth as reflecting a solid quarter, that would also mark a deceleration of growth rates for Amazon. After all, the company hasn’t seen less than 8.5% y/y sales growth for any single quarter since Q2 2022.
I also don't know if Amazon will issue any forward guidance given our current environment of unclear tariff policies.
Amazon’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s check out AMZN’s chart going back some seven months:
Readers will first see a sloppy-looking “head-and-shoulders” pattern that formed over recent months, marked with purple boxes above. That appeared to point to a bearish reversal.
In fact, that’s exactly what happened to Amazon, leading to a sell-off that bottomed out in early April at close to $161.
But interestingly, this pattern seems to have since morphed into a potentially bullish small “double-bottom” pattern (the black diagonal lines at right) that shows a $191 pivot at its conclusion. (AMZN was trading at $186.92 Friday morning.)
Amazon also appears to have suffered a so-called "death cross" in recent days without being adversely impacted.
A “death cross” occurs when a stock’s 50-day Simple Moving average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above) crosses below its 200-day SMA (marked with a red line above). This is historically a bearish signal -- but anecdotally, I’ve noticed that to be true less and less often with stocks of late.
Meanwhile, readers will notice that Amazon’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is neutral, although rising.
Separately, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is postured rather bullishly.
True, Amazon’s 12-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line) are both below zero. That’s historically a bearish signal.
But on the positive side, that 12-day line is above the 26-day line, which is typically bullish. The histogram of Amazon’s 9-day EMA (the blue bars above) has also moved above the zero bound, which is also often a bullish sign.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in AMZN at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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Amazon Wave Analysis – 24 April 2025
- Amazon reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 192.00
Amazon recently reversed up sharply from the powerful support zone between strong support level 167.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of 2024), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from 2022.
The price is currently forming the second consecutive weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.
Given the clear weekly uptrend and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Amazon can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 192.00.
AMZN Option Trading + TA Outlook – April 23, 2025
📊 GEX Option Sentiment
Amazon (AMZN) is pushing into a key gamma resistance zone, testing 180–185 — where the highest positive NET GEX and stacked call walls are sitting. These zones often act as friction areas where dealers may hedge more aggressively, slowing upside or even causing a fade. Support is reinforced near 165–167 by the HVL and PUT wall.
* Key Resistance: 180 / 185 → Top of call wall stack
* Support Zone: 165.29 → HVL and highest PUT support
* IVR/IVX: IVR 59.9, IVX avg 53.8 → Elevated, with room for continuation
* Options Flow: Bullish skew with only 6.1% in puts → Dealers tilted long
* Bias: Bullish, but approaching resistance = expect stall/fade or measured breakout
🎯 Option Play Idea
If price consolidates above 180, consider 185C or 190C lottos with tight stop below 176 (gamma slip zone).
If rejected below 180 with weakness, consider a put vertical 180/170 for premium capture into support.
📈 Price Action + SMC Structure
Trend structure has turned bullish after reclaiming structure with BOS and higher lows. Current rally is testing the supply zone and previous CHoCH area around 179–180. SMC bias is green across timeframes with strong DMI and RSI confirmation.
* Market Structure: Bullish Hold, but in premium zone — we’re near resistance
* Entry Confirmation: Price must hold above 175.93
* Targets:
* T1: 187.7
* T2: 195.58
* Invalidation: Break below 173.32
* Volume Watch: Thin volume in trend → Watch for strength continuation or stall
💡 My Thoughts
This is a high-conviction continuation setup — but it’s happening directly below a heavy gamma wall and supply zone. That means timing and confirmation are everything. I wouldn’t chase the move blindly here — instead, wait for a clear breakout and retest of 180 or a pullback to 175 for a safer entry.
We’re likely to see volatility increase into earnings and dealer hedging shift fast — especially with IV already climbing. Be tactical, and don't overstay the move.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly.
Amazon longFundamental picture:
- Current price 173 with P/E 31 (10Y low)
- Implied price 405 with average P/E 80
- Expert price 267 (TipRanks)
Technical picture:
- Near Fibonacci extension limit of VWAP 200D
- Near ATR Yearly Limit
- Near 20Y Channel since 2001
Entry:
- 170
- 150
- 130
Target:
- 200
- 300
- 400
- 700
Stop:
- < 130 = PoC 2Y
How my first trade paper trading went Based on the hr chat. It did not have a breakout as yet but it had a buy signal.
It was in an uptrend according to the lower timeframes like 5m, 15m, etc.
I still entered the trade around 9:50am and made a profit around 11:50am.
Around 1pm the trade reversed and I’m not at a loss.
Maybe I should have gotten out earlier.
What I did also was went a few rows down from last and entered a call with the most open int
Amazon (AMZN): Long-Term Opportunity or Short-Term Risk?
-Key Insights: Amazon faces headwinds from bearish market sentiment, trade
issues, and cloud service competition. Near-term challenges stem from tariffs
impacting goods sold on its platform and slowing momentum in Amazon Web
Services. The upcoming earnings report may provide clarity on its resilience.
Valuation metrics suggest potential upside, but caution is advised.
-Price Targets: Next week price levels suggest possible long entry points near
support zones.
- Target 1 (T1): $180
- Target 2 (T2): $185
- Stop Level 1 (S1): $170
- Stop Level 2 (S2): $167
-Recent Performance: Amazon has recently underperformed, trading 1% lower amid
overall large-cap tech weakness. Broader market struggles, particularly in the
Nasdaq index, reflect bearish sentiment affecting growth-focused sectors. Trade
tensions and increased competition in cloud services are significant factors
weighing on its performance.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight Amazon’s vulnerability to tariffs, which
could squeeze margins and affect merchants relying on imported goods from China.
AWS growth faces slowing dynamics as Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure gain
ground. While some experts argue Amazon’s valuation is becoming attractive with
a P/E ratio near 30, its risks warrant cautious optimism ahead of earnings.
-News Impact: The upcoming earnings report will be pivotal for assessing
Amazon’s adaptability to macroeconomic pressures. Tariff-related disruptions
could reveal more pain points in its retail segment. Simultaneously, competition
in cloud services and shifts in consumer demand may paint a clearer picture of
long-term growth potential. Competitive pressures from Google Cloud, which grew
30% year-over-year, indicate AWS’s dominance is under threat.
AMZN Bulls Crab After a period of seller dominance, indicated by the exhaustion of previous pricing strategies and the "crab" reaching its limit, the market dynamic has shifted.
The impetus now lies with the buyers, as their own strategic maneuvering and pricing pressure ("crab") begins to exert influence on the negotiation process and overall market direction.
This transition suggests a potential re-evaluation of asset value and a possible consolidation of buyer power.
Amazon losing weekly trendline – watch these Fibo levels nextTechnical Analysis
Amazon (AMZN) has broken below its weekly ascending trendline and failed to reclaim the key 0.618 Fibonacci level (180.52). Strong bearish volume and a weakening RSI suggest downside continuation. Key support targets lie at 161.55, 151.21, and 142.58, with extended downside to 119.12.
Fundamentals
Macro pressure from high interest rates and a slowdown in consumer spending weighs on Amazon. Intense competition in AWS and e-commerce adds uncertainty. Upcoming earnings may serve as a catalyst for directional clarity.
Scenarios:
Base case – move down toward 151.21, 142.58, 119.12
Bullish case – break above 180.52 → rally toward 207.52, 241.92
AMZN Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16AMZN Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesis of all the reports and our resulting view:
──────────────────────────────────────────────
Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
• Grok/xAI Report – Viewed AMZN’s charts as showing a short‐term bearish bias even as some technicals (daily MACD) hint at a possible rebound. – Noted price near key supports and high put open interest. – Recommended a bearish single‐leg play: buying the $172.50 put at a premium of $0.85 (despite that premium being a bit high relative to our “ideal” range).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlighted that on shorter timeframes (and with max pain at $185), some momentum and oversold conditions might create a bounce. – Emphasized bullish short‐term potential, recommending a trade on the $180 call at a premium of $0.71.
• Gemini/Google Report – Interpreted the technicals (EMAs, RSI, Bollinger Bands) as strongly bearish, with price testing a critical support level near $176. – With the options chain showing significant put volume at lower strikes, they recommended buying the $170 put (ask roughly $0.46) for its leverage and within or close to the target premium range.
• Llama/Meta Report – Also examined the multiple technical indicators and noted the mixed signals. – Although they observed bearish factors, their conclusion was cautious enough to state “NO TRADE RECOMMENDATION TODAY” if conditions aren’t optimal.
• DeepSeek Report – Concurred with the bearish outlook on both intraday and daily levels. – Recommended a trade on the $170 put (premium $0.46) with clear risk management (stop out if AMZN rallies above approximately $177.50).
────────────────────────────────────────────── 2. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Between Models
• Agreements – Most models agree that AMZN is trading below key short‐term and longer-term EMAs, with technical momentum looking bearish. – There is a consistent theme in the options data of high put open interest and strong volume in strikes below the current price. – Several reports (Grok/xAI, Gemini/Google, DeepSeek) favor a bearish put trade based on support levels and risk/reward dynamics.
• Disagreements – The Anthropic analysis offered a moderately bullish case (with a call trade) based on oversold short‐term conditions and a max pain level high above current price. – Llama/Meta expressed enough caution so that if price action does not break expected levels, the trade might be skipped entirely. – The recommended strike/premium differs: Grok/xAI’s $172.50 put is slightly closer to the money with a higher premium, while Gemini/DeepSeek prefer the leaner $170 put (solid liquidity, premium ~ $0.46 in our target range).
────────────────────────────────────────────── 3. Clear Conclusion
Overall Market Direction Consensus: The majority of the reports lean toward a moderately bearish outlook given that AMZN’s current price is below key EMAs, near immediate support levels, and is trading in a high-volatility environment. Although there’s one bullish view (and some caution from Llama/Meta), the bearish technicals and put-side open interest weigh more heavily for a weekly option play.
Recommended Trade (if conditions are met at open): • Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked put option. • Strike: $170.00 • Expiration: April 17, 2025 • Premium: Approximately $0.46 per contract (which sits nicely near our ideal range of $0.30–$0.60) • Entry Timing: Begin at market open based on confirmed weakness below support levels • Profit Target: Approximately a 100% gain on the premium (aiming for roughly $0.90) • Stop Loss: About $0.35 (or exit if AMZN rallies decisively above roughly $177.50) • Trade Confidence: Around 65% given the technical bearish bias and clear liquidity, though mindful of the risk that a short-term bounce at support could reverse the trade.
Key Risks and Considerations: • A sudden short-term recovery (bouncing off support around $176) could trigger losses. • High volatility (indicated by the VIX) means that intraday whipsaws remain possible. • The mixed viewpoints (especially the bullish call suggestion) underscore that any entry must respect tight stop-loss discipline. • News and broader sector conditions could alter momentum unexpectedly.
────────────────────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "AMZN", "direction": "put", "strike": 170.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 0.90, "stop_loss": 0.35, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.46, "entry_timing": "open" }
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