AREB - Low Conviction Play; High UpsideOn the chart, this is another ascending triangle that appears to be forming. The volume is an obvious tell sign of where this is likely to go. On September 7th, there was a +38% daily green candle with volume over 115 million. In the days prior to that, there were some days with volume below 40k. The highest ever day in trading history prior to this was 6 million, which was also a green candle. Then on Jan 24th, there was 8 million daily volume, then again on Feb 26th through 29th, there was 4th consecutive days on buying with 18 million in volume. The cookie crumbs are everywhere. Nothing is certain, but with this type of volume and all the moving averages converging within this ascending triangle, I think there is a high likelihood of this breaking out in the very near future. It's going to make a move one way or another. So which will it be.
To decide, I went to dig into what type of company this is. American Rebel is a Kansas based Gun and Fire Safe, concealed carry accessories, etc type of company. They currently have 14.6 million in total assets (1.1 mill in cash)., and 7.7 million in total liabilities. That gives them a NAV ov 6.9 million, yet they only have a market cap of 4 million.
While they appear to be undervalued on that side of the business, the recent big news is that they have reached an agreement with Standard Beverage Corp in Kansas and Best Brands in Tennessee to launch their new beer brand. “We already have commitments from some of the top sports bars, retail outlets, venues and music festivals in the state. Launching America’s Patriotic, God-Fearing, Constitution-Loving, National Anthem Singing, Stand Your Ground Beer into the marketplace is a primary goal of our current Reg A+ offering and having American Rebel Light Beer available in the state of Kansas helps deliver on that goal. Standard Beverage will begin distributing American Rebel Light Beer as soon as product can be integrated into the Standard Beverage network. This agreement will make American Rebel Beer available to locations and customers within Standard Beverage’s territory statewide in Kansas. In Tennessee, “We already have commitments from some legendary bars in the historic entertainment district in Nashville, as well as retail outlets, venues and music festivals throughout the state."
Here is the company's jingle for the beer. On this interview, their CEO said they are being conservative and launching regionally in January with a lager and a lager light for 2024. Then in 2025, they are going hard and launching nationwide. They might be able to get some sales here this summer with all these festivals and the 4th of July around the corner.
We are at a time where some people are fed up with large corporations, their wokeness, and their bending over backwards for the government. Top gun and fire safe company Liberty Safe came under scrutiny for rolling over and handing over the safe password to the FBI for an alleged January 6 participant without batting an eye. American Rebel's CEO said that if the FBI would've served them a warrant, he would've “taken it to court to the fullest extent of the law that we could. It's not only individual privacy we're trying to protect here. It's privacy as a whole.”. Bud Light and many other companies have been infiltrated by the woke virus and have tried to push their narratives on society. This company is a response to that.
It's probably pretty difficult to take share in the alcohol industry. It's also pretty obvious the type of customer American Rebel is targeting with their jingle, “we like our girls in bikinis, like our coolers in the truck, Motorsports on TV, hard working for a buck, so raise them high high high, testify fy fy, American rebel is the only beer we're drinking around here." I'm not ruling out the possibility this beer launch might be a minor success with this customer base and with the possibility it could grow over time. Of course I have yet to taste it and I'm operating under the assumption it will taste decent. And if not, the underlying gun safe and accessories business appears to be currently undervalued. But the chart and the volume is the most exciting thing here.
-bettingbillions
AREB trade ideas
$AREB An Overlooked Gem?Despite recording impressive revenue growth in Q1, American Rebel Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AREB) remains an overlooked play since the market may have not reacted correctly to its news. The reason for this may be due to AREB not issuing PR highlighting its impressive financial performance in Q1. With this in mind, AREB stock could be poised for a significant appreciation in its PPS as the company could continue reporting impressive revenue growth throughout this year considering the growing crime rate in the US.
AREB Fundamentals
With a market cap of only $2.9 million, AREB stock appears to be one of the most undervalued NASDAQ penny stocks as the company was able to realize $4.4 million in revenues in Q1 2023. While these revenues represented a 2757% YoY increase from $154 thousand, AREB stock is only up 31% since sharing its Q1 report – leaving the stock trading at a value less than its Q1 revenues.
That said, the reason investors may have not taken notice of AREB could be due to the company not issuing PR highlighting its impressive Q1 financial results. However, AREB has been catching investors’ attention lately which makes it prone to run in the near term. With this in mind, AREB has a low float of 16 million which could allow the stock to run quicker once more investors take notice of the stock.
One possible explanation for AREB’s drastic increase in revenues lies in a need for more guns perpetuated by an increasing crime rate in the US. Between Q1 2021, and Q1 2023 homicides have increased in the US by roughly 10%. Additionally, there have been more than 200 mass shootings in the US in 2023. Given the dire situation, gun purchases may increase this year, and with them gun accessories like those that AREB offers.
If homicides and mass shootings continue to rise at such a drastic rate, gun purchases may further increase as an attempt to obtain security. That said, AREB offers a litany of products that go hand in hand with guns such as gun safes, conceal carry jackets, and many other items. An increase in gun purchases due to the aforementioned reason may cause an increase in the purchase of gun-related items, which would boost AREB’s revenue in the coming quarters. In light of this, AREB stock could be an extremely undervalued play at current levels given its potential to continue growing its revenues in the future.
Despite its promise, investors should be wary that since AREB stock is trading below the $1 NASDAQ requirement, the company faces the risk of delisting from the NASDAQ. In this way, AREB may resort to effecting a reverse split to maintain its NASDAQ listing which would negatively impact shareholders’ value.
AREB Financials
In its Q1 report, AREB reported QoQ growth in assets from $16.5 million to $17.7 million. At the same time, cash on hand grew slightly from $356.7 thousand to $465.9 thousand. Meanwhile, liabilities increased QoQ to $6.6 million from $5.2 million driven by the company’s $1.7 million line of credit.
As for revenues, AREB reported impressive YoY growth from $154 thousand to $4.4 million and in turn, its gross profit increased from $57.3 thousand to $1.6 million. Although operating costs increased YoY to $1.8 million from $1 million, AREB’s net loss improved significantly from $2.6 million last year to $227 thousand.
Technical Analysis
AREB stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $.13 and $.17. Looking at the indicators, AREB is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. At the same time, the MACD is bullish to the upside, however, the RSI is approaching overbought at 67.
As for the fundamentals, AREB’s most recent catalyst was its impressive Q1 earnings where the company reported substantial revenue growth. With the company realizing revenues more than its entire market cap, AREB could be one of the most undervalued stocks at the moment – making it an intriguing opportunity for investors at current levels.
AREB Forecast
While AREB stock does not have a significant following, the stock could be poised to soar soon as more investors are starting to take notice of the stock following its impressive Q1 earnings. With the company realizing revenues more than its entire market cap, AREB could be undervalued at current levels. Considering the stock’s low float and potential to further grow revenues in the coming quarters due to the rise in crime rate in the US, AREB stock could be one to watch closely in anticipation of a breakout.
American Rebel losing its holdings. AREBThis small cap has been falling for many months now and it does not appear to be stopping. It's almost like it has no floor, continuously breaking goals on the downside.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
