ARM trade ideas
1/3/25 - $arm - don't get sucked in at $1401/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ARM
don't get sucked in at $140
- those of you who follow know my preference in semis is NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO (and there are some alts that i'm willing to entertain)
- but why pay 80x PE for 20-25% PE growth when you could pay 35x for NASDAQ:NVDA at 40% CAGR EPS or 20x PE for NYSE:TSM growing 30%+ (and probably understated). it's not like NASDAQ:ARM is some new kid worth 5 bn or 10 bn cap. they're $150 bn mkt cap.
- this move today is a positioning one, look across the mkts. and when you add king dawgs NASDAQ:NVDA and NYSE:TSM are having blow out days this NASDAQ:ARM pit gets dragged along.
- given NYSE:TSM reports in 2 weeks, i've traded some of my '27 calls for some lighter fluid ST calls and i'm using NASDAQ:ARM as a hedge b/c if semis are weak next week (not anticipating this - i'm actually expecting a few more days of run), i expect NYSE:TSM ST calls to more than offset my NASDAQ:ARM P's. and if semi's r down, NASDAQ:ARM will give a lot of this move back and i can reposition back into NYSE:TSM longer-dated calls (and still think i make money on the ST spread).
- anyway. in '25... i'd not be caught holding this bag. you've been warned, but alas i'll probably get some grief for this lol. just call em like i see em. off to a good start this year with the picks, but playing defense still w a lot of cash as i've monetized some NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:UBER , NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA as of the last 2 days.
have a good weekend.
V
Easy Play on ARMToday, we have our easy play on ARM. As you may have seen from my ideas, they always hit the mark. Whether it's skill or luck, we may never know. However, Tesla, ASML, Apple (twice), Nvidia, JD.com, and the Hang Seng have brought us great satisfaction this year. But the winner is SMCI (Super Micro Computer), which gave us an 80% gain in short and a 160% gain in long positions. My ideas were the only ones on TradingView that truly thought outside the box.
With ARM, we'll do the same: keeping it simple. It’s forming a symmetrical triangle both on price and on OBV and RSI. We'll buy at a steep discount and sell when everyone else is buying at the highs. Stay tuned for updates on ARM—if I think the idea is no longer valid, I'll cancel the trade!
For daily updates, you can subscribe to my Patreon!
Coming close to turning even at 119-120 waiting for a fewIndicators to confirm, like the MACD below 0, otherwise at the oversold level, the flow of money index looks like a good variable level to start to reverse, and the support area makes the bounce more likely. Could it happen now? Yes, but that support line could also act as the first support line; however, as Bollinger and Keltner confirm, the second support, which would mean the upper teens to twenty, could be a play, so we are bullish as of now or close to it.
ARM ARM – Technical Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
The stock is moving within a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows. A breakout to the upside could lead to a target of $180-$190, while a breakdown would target support around $120. A recommended stop is at $135.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, just an opinion.
ARM $210?Flag and pole pattern is trying to break and according to fib levels, Elliot wave theory suggest great buying option at point (2)
Accumulate more at (4)
Sell all at (5),
Wait for the correction and It may move up exponential as It's competitor INTEL is Failing in a Very bullish semiconductor market.
Trading Journal Bought on pullback,
AVGO had a breakout, NASDAQ:ARM could have continuation move on sympathy play because of same industry.
Shakeout entry but it followed through on downside, sold for a loss
ARM - Uptrend & BreakoutTREND
Current wave structure: Uptrend.
Break out of the falling trendline cancels the head and shoulders formation.
Moving Averages
The current price is over 20-day (Red).
20-day has just crossed 50-day (Orange) and 100-day (Turquoise) together (so supports uptrend)
SUMMARY
Based on this analysis, a price action following the blue arrow is highly probable.
ARM Long NASDAQ:ARM currently priced at $148.00 ... with a target of 160 and an extended target of 164
NASDAQ:ARM chart shows a breakout above the upper trend-line...
- 9-day EMA line crossed over the 50-day EMA line upwards = bullish sentiment
- MACD & RSI are both trending higher and away from their sell line and moving average respectively. = bullish sentiment
- the move to the upside will target the big green candle on November 7th which happened to be the last failed breakout or rejection attempt
- A capture of $150 price level and move or gap up to $150.65 is the resistance level that needs to be turned to a support level since it is the closing price of the previous rejected candle
- if 150.65 holds as a support level, the next price level ARM can trend to is 154.65 and then 157.69 -> 160 -> 161.82 -> 164
- Very high volume on call option contracts expiring tomorrow as well as next week.
- ARM 152.50 Call 12/13
- volume 6,056
- open interest 949 ... (OI to open around 3000 to show liquidity/continuation)
- ratio ~ 6:1
- ARM 155 Call 12/20
- volume 10,578
- open interest 5,126 ... (OI to open around 7,500 to show liquidity/continuation)
- ratio ~ 2:1
- ARM 160 Call 12/20
- volume 12,425
- open interest 7,416 ... (OI to open around 10,000 to show liquidity/continuation)
- ratio ~ 1.67:1
Not Financial Advice.
Bullish breakoutPrice closed outside red trendline and a new uptrend will probably follow
Upmove started from sma10 and closed above sma50
Buy the breakout on ARMArm has been trading very technical. You can see we pinned the 61.8 retrace on the lower trendline and recently tested it, again, at the 382 (also on trendline). if we break down, target is 50% retrace level at $113. you can see the upside targets if we break up.
ARM - H&S and HarmonicTREND
According to the current wave structure, it is still in the uptrend .
However, head and shoulders formation is a powerful reversal indicator.
It has not formed a channel yet, but a probable channel can be estimated as on the chart.
Moving Averages
It has been recently listed in the stok exchange, so not possible to make substantial analyses.
SUMMARY
Based on this analysis, a price action following the blue arrow is highly probable.
Such a price action also generates a bullish harmonic pattern .
Arm Holdings (ARM) - Head and Shoulders Pattern, Target $78-$94Overview: Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) is forming a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, a bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential drop in price. The pattern is visible with a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder clearly defined. The neckline support is around the $140 area.
Technical Setup:
Pattern: Head and Shoulders
Breakdown Level (Neckline): ~$140
Target Zone: $78 - $94, as projected from the height of the head to the neckline
Key Resistance: $164 level (former high)
Earnings Catalyst: With earnings approaching, the release could act as a potential catalyst to expedite the completion of this pattern, either causing a breakdown below the neckline or a temporary rebound before further selling pressure.
Price Action:
A breakdown below the neckline could see the price falling to the target zone of $78 to $94.
Watch for any bounce around the neckline, which might offer a better risk/reward entry on confirmation of the pattern's completion.
Risk Management:
A daily close above the right shoulder (~$148) would invalidate the pattern and warrant a reevaluation of the setup.
ARM holding(s) up, or will traders get the upper hand?NASDAQ:ARM released earnings recently, beating both EPS and revenue expectations. Price jumped, also pushed by the general stock frenzy following the US Presidential election the day before the release. Since that, it has been falling. Sure, the frenzy has settled, maybe reality is sinking in. Looking at the last 5 days, here are the hard facts:
ARM: -12,71%
NVDA: -3,83%
AMD: -8,82%
INTC: -7,06%
E-mini PHLX: -3,51%
S&P500: -2,08%
ARM is seriously underperforming its peers and the market, and looking at the chart there is no light in the tunnel. Price is forming a descending triangle, and a breach of the lower band might send it below $100. Yes, the RSI on the daily is approaching oversold, however recent similar situations have only triggered a brief rebound. MACD is negative, 20EMA is about to cross the 50EMA down. On-balance volume is indicating price increases like the one from mid-May to mid-July do not carry the support of volume. Same goes for price drops however, so we need a change in this for it to be useful. ARM has dropped through support after support lately, I would not be surprised if that continues. Even filling the gap from February is not off the table. That would send the stock down to $80… My target is around $97-$95.
ARM LOOKS GOOD TO LONG HERE DEC 4 2024ARM is looking good to to go long here at current price. Always consider the risk.I e tered around 130s and targets are easily around 177++ from here. You might get stuck at 166 for some time but then 178 should come.
Any doubts feel free tk DM me
ARM's MOAT..!ARM's main customers are companies that license its processor architecture and intellectual property (IP) to design and manufacture their chips. These customers span various industries, including mobile, IoT, automotive, and data centers. Some of ARM's key customers include:
Mobile and Consumer Electronics
Apple:
Apple uses ARM architecture in its custom-designed processors, such as the A-series for iPhones and iPads, and the M-series for MacBooks and desktops.
Samsung:
Samsung integrates ARM cores in its Exynos processors for smartphones, tablets, and other devices.
Qualcomm:
Qualcomm's Snapdragon processors, widely used in Android devices, are based on ARM architecture.
MediaTek:
MediaTek designs ARM-based processors for smartphones, smart TVs, and other consumer electronics.
Automotive
NVIDIA:
NVIDIA's ARM-based chips power automotive infotainment systems, autonomous driving platforms, and AI applications.
Tesla:
Tesla uses ARM-based processors for its in-car infotainment systems and Autopilot hardware.
Data Centers and Cloud
Amazon Web Services (AWS):
AWS designs ARM-based Graviton processors for its cloud computing services.
Ampere Computing:
Ampere develops ARM-based processors optimized for data centers and cloud workloads.
IoT and Embedded Systems
STMicroelectronics:
STMicroelectronics uses ARM cores for microcontrollers and processors in IoT, industrial, and automotive applications.
NXP Semiconductors:
NXP produces ARM-based chips for automotive, IoT, and industrial use cases.
Broadcom:
Broadcom integrates ARM technology into its networking and IoT solutions.
Gaming and Entertainment
Sony:
ARM-based processors are used in some gaming and entertainment devices.
Nintendo:
ARM technology powers processors in devices like the Nintendo Switch.
Chinese Tech Companies
Huawei:
Huawei's HiSilicon Kirin processors are based on ARM architecture for smartphones and network equipment use.
Alibaba:
Alibaba uses ARM technology in its custom processors for cloud and edge computing.
General Purpose and Custom Chips
Google:
Google uses ARM-based designs in its custom Tensor processors for Pixel devices and AI applications.
Microsoft:
Microsoft employs ARM-based chips for devices like the Surface Pro X and in its cloud solutions.
ARM's Role
ARM's business model involves licensing its designs rather than manufacturing chips, allowing customers to customize and manufacture processors tailored to their needs. This licensing approach has made ARM technology ubiquitous in devices ranging from smartphones and laptops to embedded systems and data centers.
POTENTIAL squeeze breakout to and beyond, as we narrowCrossover MACD (not usually high-level confirmation) but other indicators following suit, catalyst came in sound, and no surprises in guidance. Expecting to see the momentum follow through with all the data.
squeezing in to force breakaway hanging in thereThe bullish rhetoric, visual and in distinctive fashion, looks to break from the earlier resistance, forcing it to make new highs; the indicators aren't even overloaded.
ARM eyes on $160 above, $115 below: Major levels into Earnings ARM has been recovering from a good correction.
Currently testing a key zone just before earnings.
Today's report will determine trend for a while.
$ 144.43 - 145.47 is the "Decision Zone"
$ 159.02 - 161.25 is "Major Resistance" above.
$ 115.21 - 117.36 is "Major Support" below.
See "Related Publications" below for other Chip stocks
===============================================
.
$ARM - stock below trendline support. resistance at $145ARM - stock looking weak going into earnings next week as it break below trendline support. Stock needs to get back above $145 to be back in uptrend. looking for puts if $140 fails for a move to $135 and $120. If $145 breaks we can see $160 and higher.
Large Drop Incoming?Head and Shoulders almost confirmed. If we lose that 0.382 Fibonacci support I think this will drop quite bad. Not a fan of any stock largely owned by a bank looking to ramp up valuation to unload onto retail.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
ARM LONGWe have three chartist patterns here:
1- An ascending channel. It's top (yellow) it's still giving the price more space to go up.
2- Up trendline (orange). It has been touched and respected three times and that means that the bullish trendline is powerful.
3- Symmetrical triangle pattern. We have to put attention to it, because if price breaks to the upside, then it will fuel a rally to the targets given below.
The target is 164.16 and then 174.81 or so. Finally the all-time highs at 182.65.
Also, fundamentals are currently bullish for semiconductors.
