ASML Trade Idea: Riding the Uptrend with CautionAfter some time away, I’m back with a fresh ASML setup. I’ll keep this analysis simple and focus on the key points.
Market Structure and Trend Analysis
ASML remains in a strong uptrend on higher timeframes, although there has been a Change of Character (CHOCH) on the shorter-term trend, indicating a corrective phase.
This recent pullback looks like a corrective pattern within the larger monthly uptrend, potentially offering a buying opportunity if the main trend resumes.
Technical Overview
The price has tested the trendline for the third time and briefly dropped below it, which could attract short sellers and create liquidity for larger players.
I’m eyeing the -27% Fibonacci extension as a full-wave target for this setup, but I plan to take partial profits along the way, starting with 25% at a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
Risk Management and Seasonal Insights
I’m risking 1% of my account on this trade, maintaining a conservative approach.
Additionally, we’re currently in the “Halloween Effect” period, where the market often performs well from October through December, providing a seasonal tailwind.
Fundamental Context
Recent negative news around ASML may create a bearish narrative that could mislead retail traders. I interpret this as a buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend and offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
