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Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

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ASO trade ideas

6/10/24 - $aso - dip buy only in the low 40s on EPS- greedy only6/10/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ASO - generally think we should find a spot to buy this but probably won't be necking out in this tape where everything's on edge and i don't believe the mkt has really digested the job's report (which is fake - but for another day friends- i digress). if you look at this name vs. it's mega peer NYSE:DKS - it's defn been a bleeder ( NYSE:DKS is much better own - and probably remains the case). but they tend to match each other fairly well. and when you look at the google trends this is also the case - but it's not some massively widening divergence. trends.google.com so even tho the market tends to not like valuing '25 if '24 will be trough and we're (in the case of consumer) still entering a wtf scenario is < $7 (this year) the right staring # or $7.5 (which is '25)? if it's $7.5 - we need to be conservative w/ the multiple by a large margin. some of these retailers r going for mid single digits and without debt in the capital stack. this one is 25% debt. so maybe 5x is too cheap, 6-7x good value. if 5x puts us at $35 on the EPS this year - that's obviously a buy. it also suggests we'd probably be at 7% fcf yield (we're at a little over 5% today - that's fine - but not great given the trough picture of biz ops). at 7x on $7 - you're at $49, a hair below where we're at today about 10%. it's not an obvious buy there, but we're getting a good entry. this isn't typically a name i'd buy and want to hold so i'd need still more then $49. i also don't think they'll necessarily miss, but don't want to buy it to then double down and get married to trading the position to get back to a gain or take the L and move on. conclusion - we keep this on watch. anything low 40s we dip buy and assess. i'll follow up on this post. if it beat - we let it go. don't need to swing at every pitch. V
NASDAQ:ASO
by VROCKSTAR
Position Sizing: Learning to Lose Position sizing is one of the components of a trading plan, and it's important to be just as disciplined and consistent with this as with all other parts of the plan. Position sizing is defining how much we will risk for each and our objective is to consistently get the most profit with the least amount of risk. So, how much should you risk per trade? There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but to manage our risk consistently, we must establish simple, objective, and common-sense rules grounded in the realities of trading. Let's take a look at some of those realities • As traders, we should expect to lose more often than win and must learn how to manage losses effectively. • At some point, we will face drawdowns with many consecutive losses. • Successful trading results from a series of many trades and the compounding of gains, not just from being right on one or a few trades. In the video, I will show a simple guideline for calculating how much to risk per trade based on your risk tolerance over a series of trades and a drawdown number. I'm going to give you a default drawdown of 30 consecutive losses. For example, if you have a $10,000 account and don’t want to lose more than 15% ($1,500) of your account in drawdowns, you would divide $1,500 by the default drawdown of 30 stops, which would give you $50 per trade (1/2% of the account per trade). This plan allows you to lose 30 times in a row while staying within your risk tolerance. This doesn’t mean you have to risk the entire $50 per trade; consider it a maximum amount. If you are relatively new to trading or still fine-tuning your approach, I suggest trading very small amounts. Less than 1/4% of your account balance. Choose what feels comfortable and stick to it consistently. This allows you to make many trades while learning and not damage yourself. Be deliberate and create a plan to earn the right to size. For instance, require at least a small profit after two months and comfort with your method before incrementally increasing your risk per trade. Repeat this process every two months before increasing your size again. It's this kind of work that helps to balance your psychological mindset. You don't get that from books about trading psychology, you get it from grounded and deliberate practice. Use my position sizing calculations as guidelines and adjust accordingly. Once it is set, be consistent in what you do.
NASDAQ:ASOEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
ASO - Clear Analysis and what to look out forWe have our proven controlled selling algorithms taking control of price after closing a HTF cup. We are looking for some liquidity to be built within these teal and orange selling channels and for support to be found at our buying continuation channels of magenta and green. We are waiting for an initial break of orange strong selling to then retest teal tapered selling where as we can see a further breakout take place. Hope you're enjoying the long weekend and Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by ReigningTrades
ASO - beginning to break outIn September we took a look at the setup forming with ASO and knew that this would take some time to play out. This week we have our first candle body above the the secondary downtrend and looking to reclaim the the primary uptrend. We also have a recent positive MACD crossover. Looking at the proportional range of movement similar to the last breakout implies a move to the top of the channel. This would likely take months to reach and currently exceeds analyst consensus 12 month targets. I'd like to see a retest ~51 for any final accumulation and then will begin taking profit between ~59 and 64. Note that there is an overhead gap at 64 that may trigger a reversal in the future. It's also worth noting that small caps historically start to outperform the larger indices by mid December.
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by Ben_1148x2
ASO excellent trend and set upNASDAQ:ASO is a very well run small cap consumer discretionary. They had a fantastic earnings this quarter and raised guidance. This is in contradiction to poor earnings from big box sports goods retailers NYSE:FL and NYSE:DKS who cited retail theft and weakening consumer demand among reasons for their misses. The weekly chart shows a strong primary trend in a consistent upward channel, and what looks to be a repeat of the secondary trend that we saw from November 2021 to June 2022. $47 was strong resistance in 2021 and the first half of 2022. It's retested and turned it into key support. Note the fib timezone has correlated to major pivot points and aligns closely to where the current downtrend and the upward channel in the primary trend converge. This implies that we are likely to consolidate for several more weeks before breaking out to higher highs. The daily chart offers much less clarity. I had previously identified cup and handle forming between May and July. We never got a full candle close above the handle, so that was not a buy. It formed a very brief island bottom reversal when price plummeted on the NYSE:DKS earnings miss and then attempted a recovery at NASDAQ:ASO earnings. Price moved above VWAPs from recent price extremes, but could not reclaim the 200SMA and closed below the VWAP from ATH. This aligns to what the weekly chart is telling us; we have further to go before the next uptrend. Note the small gap above at $64-65 which will likely be resistance in the future. I currently hold a small position (<1% of my portfolio), but plan to increase exposure. My gameplan: Accumulate gradually over the next 2-4 weeks anywhere between $48-51 Take some profit at $59 and $64 Stop loss at ~42, which is 1 ATR below major support
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by Ben_1148x2
1
ASO - possible cup & handleNASDAQ:ASO is an excellent small cap in the consumer discretionary sector. They're very well managed, having been profitable with steadily improving fundamentals since their 2020 IPO. 12 month consensus price target is $67-68. ASO has bounced back from the low in June, forming a cup and handle pattern. While I'm typically not a big fan of cup and handle patterns due to their higher failure rate compared to other patterns, this formation on the daily chart is fairly textbook. I would prefer to see the right lip of the cup slightly higher than the left, along with a bit more volume on the right lip. However, the depth and duration of both the cup and the handle are satisfactory, and the volume progression is strong for the majority of the formation. Another positive sign is that the handle has treated the 200-day Simple Moving Average (200SMA) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from the All-Time High (ATH) as support. I plan to enter on a breakout of the handle about $59, take profit at $64 before the April 27 gap down in price, and then look for a retest below the handle for additional accumulation.
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by Ben_1148x2
1
ASO (Long) - Great value and robust growthFundamentals: - ASO has been a strong performant throughout the 2022. We can see that even when the market has been struggling significantly, the stock has not budged, and held in a strong uptrend . - With a P/E ratio of 7.8 and P/S ratio of 0.7, it is one of the cheaply-valued stocks in the market. Despite the fundamentals of a value-stock, it provides growth-like returns with significant stock appreciation. - It pays a solid dividend and the analysts are predicting an accelerating growth in the coming years. Technicals: - the chart is an absolute beauty. After about a year, the stock has developed a double-bottom pattern with a rounding base which ended in a clean breakout on strong earnings - The breakout has been confirmed and the stock has been rising ever since - The indicators also suggest a continued rise with RSI in a solid formation and stochastics showing persistent price growth Trade: - The stock is creating a triangle-like formation on the weekly and daily, which could result in an upward breakout - The technicals, however, suggest a long-term potential and probably a solid long-term investment as well. Hence, entry point here is not of the upmost importance Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like and a comment, it motivates me to keep producing the ideas, thank you
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by jurajholik
2
Academy Sports (ASO) I bought some of this near the IPO back around $15 a share. I cashed out around $28 a share. I wished I had held, it is now near $63 a share. Small cap sports retailer out of Katy, TX with superb financials and growth plans. 0.47 PEG, ROE of 41.71%. Solidly increasing free cash flow and margins. Solid and steady accumulation. $67.13 is 1.618 extension on monthly. $67.83 on weekly 2.142 extended on daily right now, so I am hoping for a pullback to the $57.74 on daily 23% extension, which is in the range of the thin vol profile on weekly down to volume expansion at $58.41 $51.66 mo. & weekly 23% fib retrace; thin vol profile on weekly down to $58.01 $51.51 prior swing high on weekly $58.41 23% fib on daily; thin volume profile from $61.89 down to $58.41 fib I don't chase, I always wait for a pullback to buy, so I am setting an entry target of $58.56 in hopes of a pullback to higher volume profile off that 2.142 extension.
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
ASO, LONGThis one actually fell off my radar due to a glitch in displaying institutions percent of float on finviz, but back on to ASO and I like todays signal so let see how it goes ... I wanted to leave allowance in my account to re enter EXTR and ABC or MNST but of these names only MNST is acceptable to reenter due to earnings so I decided that taking LW and ASO today is a reasonable move but if MNST pops I am not allowed to take anything else until some de risks or stop losses are hit . So, taking this action may cause me to miss out on MNST ... My rule is 3 , that's 4.26 % risk to account . I think that the market is at a do or die stage and that progressive exposure is important , I am almost overdoing wouldn't hurt to slow down on the entries , though still within the limits of my rules too . Lets see if the market has a thrust up from here , crossing my fingers .
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by NAK1987
24
ASO Playing a Bounce off SupportAcademy Spots & Outdoors, a wonderful long time company that has been around years, and more recently on the market is fundamentally bringing in more gross revenue and profits every quarter. Fundamentally, this company is an A+ and is coming in with a 5.5 P/E Ratio. Technicals Wise, we are seeing ASO bounce off a very strong Triple Support Level. This is a super strong piece of support, and is seeing lots of buyers coming in to ASO at this Level. ASO has also been in a bullish wedge formation, and is attempting a break up here off this bounce. Retail has been sold off entirely through the past few months, and is starting to shape a reversal. Ways to play : Shares Apr. 14 $40c or $45c Many other ways too. I strongly believe this is a great LT and or Swing entry to ASO.
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by ZachSap