Don't lose hope on the Thai banks!Staying range-bound over the past 4 years, SET:BANK is now showing a change in behavior. Hugging around the upper bound, SET:BANK looks ready to break out
BANK trade ideas
Nasdaq Bank Index 2025 Edition — Let's Make Sh#t Great Again.President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies, we at @PandorraResearch Team characterize as a term "Tariff Bazooka", have significantly destabilized the Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK , reflecting broader financial sector vulnerabilities and investor anxiety.
These tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, a 20% duty on Chinese goods, and proposed reciprocal tariffs, — have triggered cascading multi effects on banking stocks through several paths.
Market Volatility and Investor Flight
The Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks major U.S. financial institutions, has been disproportionately impacted by tariff-driven uncertainty:
Sharp Equity Declines. Since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in February 2025, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dropped over 10% from its December 2024 peak, erasing $1 trillion in tech-sector value. Banking stocks, sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, mirrored this downturn as investors fled equities for safer assets.
Risk-Off Sentiment. Bonds rallied as tariffs sparked fears of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation—prompting a 30-basis-point drop in 10-year Treasury yields. This flight to safety squeezed bank profitability, as narrower yield curves reduce net interest margins.
Economic Contagion Mechanisms
Interest Rate Pressures.
Tariffs have raised input costs for businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve now faces a dilemma: tolerate higher inflation or hike rates to curb it. Either scenario harms banks. Elevated rates could suppress loan demand and increase default risks, while delayed rate cuts prolong financial tightening.
Trade Retaliation and Sectoral Risks.
Canada, Mexico, and China have retaliated with tariffs on $155 billion (Canada) and unspecified billions (China, Mexico) of U.S. goods. For banks, this raises exposure to sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and automotive - industries heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Loan defaults could surge if protected industries fail to offset higher costs.
Global Financial System Strain.
Trump’s tariffs risk fragmenting the rules-based trading system, undermining the stability that banks depend on for international transactions. The EU and other regions may retaliate by restricting U.S. financial services, directly impacting revenue streams for Wall Street firms.
Sector-Specific Impacts
Tech-Finance Nexus. Many Nasdaq-listed banks have significant exposure to tech firms, which face disrupted supply chains due to tariffs on Chinese components. This dual pressure — higher operational costs for clients and reduced tech-sector valuations — weakens banks’ asset quality.
Consumer Credit Risks. Tariffs on everyday goods (e.g., 25% on Mexican produce, 10% on Canadian energy) could elevate household expenses, straining consumer creditworthiness and increasing delinquency rates for retail banks.
Projected Outcomes
Economists estimate Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2025, with a stagflationary shock amplifying equity sell-offs. For the Nasdaq Bank Index, this implies prolonged volatility, compressed earnings, and potential credit rating downgrades as macroeconomic headwinds intensify.
Technical challenge
The main technical graph of Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK indicates on further Bearish trend in development, since major supports (nearly 5-month flat bottom and 52-weeks SMA) have been recently broken.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Trump’s tariff strategy has acted as a destabilizing force for financial markets, with the Nasdaq Bank Index serving as a barometer for sector-wide risks. By exacerbating economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade fragmentation, these policies have eroded investor confidence and heightened systemic vulnerabilities in the banking sector.
--
Best 'sh#t hits the fan' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
US Banks & Financial Sectors are ready for another fabulous riseNasdaq Banks
The bank index has been on a rollercoaster ride, witnessing numerous price fluctuations.
Following the breakout of the double bottom pattern, the index surged and formed a Rising Wedge pattern.
However, once the pattern broke downwards, the bank index experienced a significant decline.
Upon hitting a support level around 2,650, the index established a Double Bottom pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Subsequent to the breakout above the neckline, the bank index began consolidating within a tight range.
Most recently, another breakout has occurred, setting the stage for a potential upward rally.
S&P 500 Financials
After the market crash in 2020, the index fell into an oversold zone and stayed in a period of consolidation within an Ascending Triangle formation.
Following this breakout, the financial index experienced a strong rally to the upside.
However, it struggled to break above the 700 level and began to decline.
Subsequently, the index went through a lengthy consolidation inside a Box formation.
After another breakthrough, the index surged once more and created a bullish Pole & Flag pattern.
With a recent breakout, the financial index is poised for another upswing.
NASDAQ BANK INDEX ready to reverse ? LONGBANK is tracking bank stocks within the NASDAQ. I cannot find if it is market cap weighted or
instead an unweighted composite I wanted to check this out to see if the banking sector might
reverse and perhaps have some trade candidates based on relative strength or even
rising trading volumes.
On the 15 chart, BANK's price is in a descending channel or wedge. It is too early to tell if
it is breaking out although it is sandwiched between the SMA10 and SMA20 as so in limbo at
least of this time frame. The MACD indicator shows downgoing lines that had crossed one
another above the histogram. This appears to be a bearish divergence. The mass index shows no
signs of a rise into the threshold and trigger zone as it did on January 31st.
Overall, I conclude that the price is still in the channel and not yet an early breakout. I will
recheck this at intervals. Once a breakout is confirmed and even retested, I will find
some relatively strong bank stocks from which to pick a long trade at a low pivot for
a safe high return from the upside shown.
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis.
Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis.
Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts.
“If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939.
"This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge.
According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed.
This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression.
"There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood.
Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks.
These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers.
On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
NASDAQ Bank Weekly ChartNASDAQ Bank's market behavior is currently unfolding within the context of a cyclic wave pattern, specifically in its fourth wave. This cyclic wave pattern is a representation of the bank's price movements over time, and it is comprised of various phases that can be broken down for analysis.
Starting from its inception, the bank's journey has been marked by significant trends known as primary waves. The first of these primary waves, primary wave 1, was completed in April 1987. This was a period of notable growth or decline that had a discernible impact on the bank's stock prices. Following this, primary wave 2 occurred in October 1990, representing another distinct phase of movement. Primary wave 3 followed suit, transpiring in April 1998, with its own unique characteristics that influenced the bank's market performance.
Subsequently, primary wave 4 emerged in February 2000, accompanied by primary wave 5, which concluded in December 2006. These five primary waves collectively constitute what is referred to as wave I within the larger cyclic wave pattern. This initial cycle, termed cyclic wave I, reached its peak in January 2007, signifying a culmination of upward movement.
However, as market dynamics are characterized by both upward and downward trends, a subsequent downward movement, known as cycle wave II, occurred from January 2007 to February 2009. This phase might have been influenced by broader economic factors or specific developments within the banking industry.
Continuing the sequence, within the context of cyclic wave III, five new primary waves unfolded, each shaping the bank's trajectory in distinct ways. Following the completion of these primary waves, there was a retracement during primary wave IV, which spanned from an earlier point until May 2023. Retracements often represent periods of consolidation or correction in the market.
As of the present moment, the bank's market behavior indicates the initiation of wave V within the cyclic degree. This implies that the bank is entering a new phase of market activity, and its price movements are anticipated to be influenced by a fresh set of factors and trends.
In conclusion, the bank's journey within the cyclic wave pattern is a dynamic interplay of upward and downward trends, with each wave representing a distinct phase of market behavior. Understanding these patterns can assist investors and analysts in making informed decisions based on historical trends and anticipated future movements.
Disclaimer: The following explanation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market behaviors are subject to various factors and can be unpredictable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Bank sector to break to new lows into aug 25th Worldwide PanicThe chart seems to have just finished WAVE 4 . We should now see the panic from 6/23/6/27 turn and a Panic should not see the low till 8/25 plus or minus 2.5 to 3.5 days from this date .
BANK INDEX AND THE LINE IN THE SAND & WHYWe now have reached what I would call the LINE in the SAND for the bank sector . You can see that over the last 20 years this zone . But going back to 1971 when the funny money started it looks like we are about to see how weak the system Is .
The banks look like they're about to break. We're now exactly one year on from the day we posted a collection of TA setups that implied we were due to see turmoil in the banking sector.
Now, a year later, we look set to see the index breaking the 161. And we also have all the narratives catching up to support it.
Here's a list of the 2021 forecasts:
NQ BANK - Unicorns of Silly ValleyHmmm... 4100 just couldn't hold... 4104to be exact.
Try as they might these Junk Banks are laden with Toxic trash.
Chocked full of Nutters.
_______________________________________________________
Regulators gave them a pass - heavily easing reporting of these
Junk Banks, since data only needed to be provided in a prescribed
format exactly ONE Time.
Inaccurate data submissions, Security interface protection, and IT
instability... common excuses.
Operational Risk, yeah kinda high given the current environment.
SoFi is another example of Data Agg, gone wildly wrong.
Caught in many inappropriate and non-compliant use of their technologies,
took its toll.
Simply, the beginning of the horror show.
NQ BANK - Gap to GapWhich one fills first with Financials reporting beginning next week.
This Index will act as support for the RTY and ES in the Short Run.
It is not providing much but is the broadest base of reference for the ES & RTY.
The upper Gap should fill 1st.
AO remains in recovery mode for now.
______________________________________________________________________
Repeatedly mentioned this Gap Fill concern for ES RTY Prorp, it's in trade for now.
Keep this one handy for the reversal.
It's coming.
NQ BANK - Sabre Toothed TigressKinky Tech Banking adds to the NQ's relentless pursuit of Higher Highs.
UP 0.70% today it's assisting the HOLD in NQ.
With Gaps stretching back to November of 2020 near 2840 Level...
Expect a 50% Haircut to the following:
1895 of Wisconsin 11.18 11.24 11.18 -0.03 -0.27% 10.95K 14:00:06
1st Constitution Bancorp 25.58 25.78 25.58 -0.31 -1.20% 3.35K 14:08:54
1st Source 50.13 50.49 49.97 -0.11 -0.22% 8.61K 14:24:51
ACNB 28.22 28.35 28.22 0.00 0.00% 3.77K 14:20:23
Affinity Bancshares 14.88 14.88 14.82 +0.23 +1.57% 3.01K 13:34:10
Allegiance Bancshares Inc 42.93 42.95 42.21 +0.62 +1.47% 40.50K 14:36:50
Amalgamated Bank 18.66 19.77 18.66 -0.47 -2.46% 37.28K 14:18:51
Amerant Bancorp 28.36 28.53 28.19 -0.01 -0.02% 4.04K 14:23:46
Amerant Bancorp A 30.00 30.06 29.75 +0.09 +0.28% 21.55K 14:22:42
American National Bankshares 38.45 38.60 38.13 -0.03 -0.08% 7.98K 14:30:25
Ameris 54.29 54.43 53.37 +0.51 +0.95% 128.04K 14:24:53
AmeriServ 3.800 3.820 3.790 -0.010 -0.26% 10.47K 14:19:09
Ames 24.56 24.89 24.56 -0.20 -0.81% 8.93K 13:43:43
Arrow 37.18 37.40 36.57 +0.39 +1.06% 2.89K 14:22:29
Atlantic Capital Bancshares Inc 29.97 30.15 29.77 +0.25 +0.84% 50.30K 14:37:36
Atlantic Union 36.42 36.74 36.32 -0.10 -0.27% 42.85K 14:27:33
Auburn 34.00 34.00 34.00 +0.29 +0.88% 1.21K 14:23:00
BancFirst 67.59 67.59 67.51 -0.04 -0.06% 16.59K 14:30:06
Bank First National 73.23 73.23 73.23 -0.44 -0.60% 0.99K 14:22:09
Bank of Marin 38.50 38.61 38.30 +0.14 +0.38% 17.78K 14:26:02
Bank Of Princeton 30.25 30.35 30.00 -0.09 -0.30% 36.23K 14:24:04
Bank of South Carolina 20.59 20.59 20.05 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
Bank of the James 16.48 16.50 15.99 +0.08 +0.49% 1.06K 14:13:48
Bank Ozk 47.58 47.88 47.30 +0.28 +0.59% 197.24K 14:29:47
Bank7 26.07 26.17 25.60 +0.07 +0.27% 7.98K 14:19:11
BankFinancial 11.31 11.34 11.25 +0.01 +0.09% 8.63K 14:24:50
Bankwell 31.30 31.61 31.03 +0.06 +0.18% 6.54K 13:57:37
Banner 62.20 62.20 61.72 +0.52 +0.84% 30.30K 14:37:04
BayCom 19.55 19.59 19.55 0.00 0.00% 0.76K 14:25:09
BCB Bancorp 15.34 15.39 15.20 +0.26 +1.72% 15.52K 14:24:49
Blue Foundry Bancorp 14.40 14.48 14.39 -0.05 -0.35% 38.52K 14:24:46
BOK Financial 107.63 108.30 107.24 +0.14 +0.13% 38.71K 14:28:35
Bridgewater Bancshares 19.30 19.31 19.05 -0.28 -1.43% 27.98K 14:33:15
Broadway Financial 2.775 2.810 2.750 -0.015 -0.54% 34.64K 14:23:58
Brookline Bancorp 16.51 16.65 16.49 -0.04 -0.24% 69.90K 14:38:13
Bryn Mawr Bank 49.46 49.68 49.15 +0.12 +0.24% 30.45K 14:23:48
Business First 28.02 28.29 27.87 -0.27 -0.95% 10.05K 14:22:27
C&F Financial 53.00 53.00 53.00 +0.60 +1.15% 0.45K 14:25:04
California BanCorp 19.30 19.41 19.15 0.00 0.00% 13.60K 14:02:36
Cambridge Bancorp 92.98 92.98 92.98 -0.92 -0.98% 4.34K 14:22:11
Camden 49.59 50.83 49.49 -0.32 -0.64% 6.23K 14:21:52
Capital Bancorp 27.80 27.83 27.80 -0.05 -0.18% 19.16K 14:20:59
Capital City Bank 27.84 28.32 27.82 -0.47 -1.66% 3.50K 14:21:09
Capitol Federal 12.63 12.66 12.57 -0.02 -0.16% 116.51K 14:37:19
Capstar Financial 22.25 22.35 22.10 -0.04 -0.18% 12.36K 14:24:46
Carter Bank 15.89 16.08 15.89 -0.11 -0.69% 10.77K 14:24:52
Carver 14.85 15.25 14.26 +0.36 +2.48% 70.90K 14:21:17
Catalyst Bancorp 13.80 13.86 13.80 +0.04 +0.29% 1.63K 14:21:18
Cathay 45.00 45.00 44.63 +0.51 +1.15% 90.06K 14:39:15
CB Financial Services Inc 24.32 24.32 23.95 +0.17 +0.70% 2.03K 14:03:02
CBTX 30.35 30.35 29.91 +0.25 +0.83% 38.98K 14:36:45
Central Valley Community 21.45 21.45 21.30 +0.01 +0.07% 1.46K 14:19:14
CF Bankshares 20.99 21.07 20.10 -0.73 -3.36% 22.92K 14:16:46
Chemung 47.99 49.32 47.99 -0.20 -0.41% 2.64K 14:18:39
ChoiceOne Financial Services 25.77 26.18 25.55 -0.27 -1.02% 1.73K 14:24:45
Cincinnati Bancorp 14.78 14.78 14.75 +0.00 +0.00% 0 09/11
Citizens 18.16 18.50 18.16 -0.34 -1.84% 1.32K 14:11:54
Citizens Community 13.76 13.85 13.76 -0.00 -0.04% 9.41K 14:18:47
Citizens&Northern 27.29 27.28 27.28 -0.23 -0.85% 7.63K 14:22:04
City Holding 81.99 82.35 81.90 -0.19 -0.23% 13.77K 14:27:56
Civista Bancshares 25.24 25.28 24.99 -0.01 -0.04% 8.16K 14:24:18
CNB Financial 27.53 27.53 27.43 +0.03 +0.11% 6.75K 14:29:57
Coastal Financial 43.41 44.24 43.25 -0.56 -1.27% 2.98K 14:18:35
Codorus Valley 23.11 23.11 23.10 -0.09 -0.39% 3.57K 14:19:00
Colony Bankcorp 18.58 18.94 18.58 +0.07 +0.38% 3.42K 14:18:00
Columbia Banking 36.04 36.42 36.03 +0.04 +0.11% 304.36K 14:40:01
Columbia Financial 19.21 19.34 19.20 -0.10 -0.52% 21.23K 14:37:15
Commerce Bancshares 74.52 74.56 73.98 +0.93 +1.26% 97.20K 14:25:06
Community Bankers 12.20 12.23 12.15 +0.05 +0.41% 37.71K 14:33:36
Community Financial Corp 39.26 39.26 38.44 -0.13 -0.33% 2.01K 14:18:39
Community Trust 44.88 45.24 44.66 -0.22 -0.49% 15.04K 14:20:58
Community West Bancshares 12.97 13.00 12.85 +0.04 +0.31% 5.64K 14:19:51
ConnectOne 35.16 35.16 34.73 +0.33 +0.95% 64.11K 14:21:19
County Bancorp 36.72 36.72 36.50 0.00 0.00% 0 12/11
CrossFirst Bankshares 15.09 15.12 15.03 -0.04 -0.26% 21.70K 14:29:22
Cullman Bancorp, 12.60 12.60 12.60 +0.10 +0.80% 3.49K 14:18:46
CVB Financial 20.71 20.85 20.66 +0.06 +0.29% 164.89K 14:39:33
Dime Community 37.21 37.37 37.08 -0.26 -0.69% 24.69K 14:27:33
Eagle 60.49 60.49 59.82 +0.30 +0.50% 12.37K 14:33:19
Eagle Montana 22.66 22.96 22.66 -0.23 -1.00% 3.07K 14:20:38
East West Bancorp 84.30 84.33 83.33 +1.24 +1.49% 240.75K 14:32:54
Elmira Savings Bank 22.84 22.84 22.84 +0.04 +0.18% 0.18K 14:10:37
Emclaire 28.25 28.25 28.25 +0.27 +0.96% 1.37K 14:00:03
Enterprise 40.41 40.60 39.17 -0.11 -0.27% 6.66K 14:15:04
Enterprise Financial 48.44 48.64 48.30 +0.13 +0.27% 28.20K 14:24:55
Equity Bancshares Inc 34.88 35.23 34.88 -0.07 -0.20% 33.32K 14:31:37
Esquire Financial 37.08 37.48 36.30 +0.86 +2.37% 19.16K 14:23:35
ESSA Bancorp 16.90 17.00 16.75 +0.07 +0.42% 6.74K 14:15:49
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp 26.17 26.34 25.81 -0.41 -1.54% 9.13K 14:23:48
Farmers National 18.37 18.39 18.20 +0.23 +1.27% 15.78K 14:26:58
Ffbw 11.99 11.99 11.97 +0.16 +1.35% 1.32K 11:04:17
Fidelity D&D 51.01 53.25 49.90 -2.79 -5.19% 1.48K 14:19:04
Fifth Third 44.88 44.94 44.19 +0.67 +1.52% 1.96M 14:38:32
Financial Institutions 33.11 33.34 32.66 -0.06 -0.18% 10.35K 14:25:03
First Bancorp 50.11 50.69 50.01 -0.26 -0.52% 91.06K 14:38:36
First Bancorp Inc 30.97 31.00 30.51 +0.02 +0.06% 10.09K 14:08:54
First Bank 15.31 15.48 15.23 -0.03 -0.16% 9.63K 14:23:35
First Busey 27.51 27.63 27.29 -0.04 -0.15% 74.50K 14:27:42
First Business 31.39 31.89 30.93 +0.47 +1.50% 4.36K 14:10:12
First Capital 41.00 41.00 41.00 +0.06 +0.15% 2.57K 14:03:52
First Citizens BancShares 845.82 845.82 843.25 +9.82 +1.17% 13.55K 14:35:13
First Community 21.30 21.30 21.01 +0.25 +1.19% 2.49K 14:19:03
First Community Bancshares 34.39 34.60 34.09 +0.10 +0.29% 10.10K 14:24:01
First Financial Bancorp 25.36 25.49 25.30 +0.05 +0.20% 63.77K 14:37:50
First Financial Bankshares 54.31 54.67 54.13 -0.11 -0.20% 84.18K 14:38:32
First Financial Indiana 44.50 44.75 44.50 -0.20 -0.45% 28.66K 14:38:59
First Financial Northwest 17.04 17.16 16.81 +0.16 +0.95% 11.18K 14:25:00
First Foundation Inc 28.74 28.80 28.59 0.00 0.00% 26.66K 14:40:15
First Guaranty Bancshares Inc 22.34 22.40 22.07 +0.29 +1.32% 4.10K 14:21:30
First Hawaiian 28.55 28.84 28.52 +0.07 +0.25% 143.14K 14:38:59
First Internet 45.43 45.49 45.32 +0.45 +1.00% 16.25K 14:31:14
First Interstate BancSystem 43.44 43.61 43.16 +0.23 +0.53% 129.55K 14:27:30
First Merchants 42.76 43.16 42.68 -0.01 -0.02% 52.00K 14:29:23
First Mid Illinois Bancshares 44.77 44.90 44.70 -0.08 -0.18% 2.76K 14:11:48
First Midwest 20.83 20.83 20.68 +0.23 +1.12% 136.83K 14:33:42
First National 22.97 22.97 22.97 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
First Northwest Bancorp 18.96 19.03 18.87 0.00 0.00% 0 12/11
First of Long Island 21.85 21.85 21.64 +0.09 +0.41% 25.18K 14:15:47
First Savings 27.48 27.61 27.22 -0.42 -1.51% 3.55K 14:00:31
First Seacoast Bancorp 9.89 9.89 9.89 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
First United 19.96 20.49 19.96 -0.28 -1.38% 2.68K 14:12:47
First US Bancshares 11.34 11.50 11.34 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
First Western Financial 30.46 31.38 30.46 -1.33 -4.17% 0.47K 14:18:51
Five Star Bancorp 28.29 28.40 28.29 +0.05 +0.18% 15.14K 14:38:52
Flushing 24.11 24.11 23.87 +0.13 +0.54% 22.76K 14:30:18
FNCB Bancorp 8.950 8.950 8.950 +0.060 +0.67% 1.67K 14:22:57
Franklin Financial 32.25 32.25 32.22 +0.03 +0.09% 1.30K 14:08:32
FS Bancorp 35.04 35.09 34.87 -0.59 -1.66% 7.61K 14:10:55
Fulton 16.84 16.95 16.79 0.01 0.00% 211.40K 14:30:16
FVCBankcorp 20.47 20.47 20.47 +0.11 +0.54% 0.65K 14:25:06
Generations Bancorp NY 11.60 11.60 11.40 0.00 0.00% 0 11/11
German American Bancorp 41.77 41.77 41.49 +0.03 +0.07% 7.92K 14:22:24
Glacier 59.98 59.99 59.35 +0.67 +1.13% 87.57K 14:34:59
Glen Burnie 12.35 12.36 12.32 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
Great Southern Bancorp 57.86 58.13 57.77 -0.52 -0.89% 14.03K 14:35:28
Greene County 34.50 34.50 33.33 +0.05 +0.15% 2.69K 13:07:46
Grupo Financiero Galicia ADR 11.420 11.720 10.960 -0.100 -0.87% 991.86K 14:38:35
Guaranty Bancshares 39.74 40.16 39.24 -0.66 -1.63% 10.69K 14:24:06
Guaranty Federal 32.17 32.51 32.17 -0.03 -0.09% 1.69K 14:06:26
Hancock Whitney 53.24 53.51 52.88 +0.42 +0.80% 76.62K 14:25:07
Hanmi 24.49 24.49 24.15 +0.83 +3.51% 56.31K 14:26:27
HarborOne Banc 14.92 14.93 14.85 +0.02 +0.13% 17.26K 14:23:48
Hawthorn Bancshares 25.46 26.06 25.46 -0.44 -1.70% 10.65K 14:22:42
Hbt Fin 18.46 18.90 18.23 -0.32 -1.70% 9.28K 14:23:26
Heartland Financial 51.64 51.81 51.39 +0.23 +0.45% 66.65K 14:32:31
Heritage Commerce 12.05 12.14 11.98 -0.00 -0.02% 20.33K 14:24:41
Heritage Financial Co 25.91 26.11 25.77 -0.01 -0.02% 22.52K 14:23:48
Hingham Institution 390.00 399.02 382.96 +10.00 +2.63% 2.95K 14:22:36
HMN Financial 23.77 23.77 23.77 -0.06 -0.25% 3.60K 12:58:03
Home Bancorp 42.78 43.15 42.67 -0.18 -0.42% 3.27K 14:20:11
Home BancShares 26.29 26.31 25.95 +0.31 +1.19% 279.55K 14:38:30
Home Federal Louisiana 19.75 19.75 19.75 +0.07 +0.38% 0.26K 13:37:25
HomeStreet 52.32 52.83 51.67 +0.37 +0.71% 109.36K 14:36:05
HomeTrust 31.40 31.49 31.08 +0.30 +0.96% 15.39K 14:24:38
Hope Bancorp 15.63 15.63 15.35 +0.54 +3.58% 317.35K 14:37:00
Horizon Bancorp 19.80 20.04 19.71 -0.13 -0.65% 40.03K 14:35:18
Howard 22.57 22.57 22.41 +0.26 +1.17% 42.68K 14:39:59
Huntington Bancshares 16.51 16.53 16.20 +0.26 +1.60% 6.02M 14:40:12
HV Bancorp 21.81 21.81 21.81 -0.69 -3.07% 0.71K 13:40:18
IF Bancorp 24.00 24.00 23.50 +0.00 +0.00% 0 11/11
Independent Bank 87.47 89.50 87.03 -0.32 -0.36% 176.88K 14:25:03
Independent Bank Corp 23.57 23.83 23.45 -0.23 -0.97% 31.95K 14:37:02
Independent Bank Group 73.98 74.01 73.30 +0.48 +0.65% 42.01K 14:23:47
International Bancshares 44.82 45.44 44.69 -0.35 -0.77% 32.14K 14:23:17
Investar Holding 18.24 18.24 18.24 -0.14 -0.76% 3.73K 14:29:09
Investors Bancorp 16.01 16.02 15.84 +0.20 +1.26% 467.06K 14:38:59
Kearny Financial 13.53 13.63 13.49 -0.03 -0.22% 117.36K 14:30:33
Kentucky First Federal 7.120 7.150 7.066 -0.060 -0.83% 11.78K 13:43:16
Lake Shore Bancorp 15.20 15.20 15.20 +0.19 +1.30% 1.03K 13:48:00
Lakeland Bancorp 19.08 19.21 19.01 +0.03 +0.16% 40.69K 14:22:30
Lakeland Financial 74.09 74.15 73.36 +0.40 +0.54% 29.41K 14:25:08
Landmark 29.26 29.26 29.26 +0.21 +0.71% 0.32K 13:50:55
LCNB 17.72 17.83 17.70 +0.09 +0.51% 21.98K 14:22:13
Level One Bancorp 39.82 40.35 39.75 +0.21 +0.54% 25.75K 14:23:48
Live Oak Bancshares Inc 95.45 95.90 93.96 +2.18 +2.34% 205.04K 14:40:12
Luther Burbank 14.55 14.73 14.37 -0.11 -0.75% 9.16K 14:22:08
Macatawa Bank 8.770 8.790 8.750 +0.010 +0.11% 34.99K 14:24:50
Magyar 11.75 11.75 11.75 0.00 0.00% 1.00K 13:45:05
Mainstreet Bank 24.68 24.68 24.68 +0.33 +1.36% 0.78K 14:18:39
Malvern 16.91 17.00 16.77 +0.14 +0.81% 1.83K 14:14:11
Mercantile 36.56 36.56 36.47 -0.04 -0.11% 8.65K 14:32:34
Merchants Bancorp 46.66 47.31 46.27 -0.36 -0.78% 15.85K 14:24:41
Meridian Bank 33.81 34.21 33.18 +0.10 +0.30% 2.96K 14:22:20
Meta Financial 65.86 65.86 64.36 +1.80 +2.81% 146.09K 14:40:05
MetroCity 26.99 27.43 26.92 +0.18 +0.67% 10.74K 14:27:55
Mid Penn 30.24 30.25 29.68 +0.21 +0.70% 12.69K 14:25:05
Mid-Southern Bancorp 14.92 14.95 14.91 0.00 0.00% 0 12/11
Middlefield Banc 27.41 27.41 27.25 -0.10 -0.36% 13.76K 14:37:28
Midland States Banc 25.45 25.45 25.18 +0.06 +0.22% 24.40K 14:24:46
MidWestOne 33.50 33.86 33.42 -0.36 -1.06% 8.41K 14:21:11
MVB Financial 40.90 42.01 40.09 -0.72 -1.73% 24.51K 14:25:07
National Bankshares 38.68 38.75 38.68 +0.32 +0.85% 17.36K 14:11:24
NBT Bancorp 38.25 38.36 38.07 +0.04 +0.10% 25.16K 14:40:12
Nicolet Bankshares Inc 74.39 75.39 74.13 -0.49 -0.65% 6.54K 14:24:07
Northeast Bancorp 34.68 35.03 34.57 -0.29 -0.83% 13.45K 14:31:06
Northeast Community 11.18 11.19 11.12 +0.04 +0.31% 48.13K 14:31:10
Northfield Bancorp 18.07 18.15 17.98 +0.03 +0.14% 24.68K 14:24:56
Northrim 46.21 46.21 46.21 -0.24 -0.52% 7.55K 14:36:51
Northwest Bancshares 14.37 14.37 14.26 +0.14 +0.98% 268.79K 14:40:05
Norwood 27.50 27.50 27.40 -0.07 -0.25% 1.54K 13:16:24
Oak Valley Bancorp 18.14 18.14 18.14 +0.04 +0.19% 1.36K 13:41:16
OceanFirst 21.86 22.18 21.83 -0.15 -0.68% 101.60K 14:34:53
Oconee 23.98 23.98 23.98 -0.13 -0.54% 0.11K 13:03:41
Ohio Valley Banc 30.38 32.05 29.75 +0.92 +3.12% 26.56K 14:21:55
Old National Bancorp 18.46 18.46 18.28 +0.22 +1.21% 409.03K 14:39:34
Old Point 23.99 23.99 23.29 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
Old Second Bancorp 13.66 13.75 13.65 -0.10 -0.73% 14.71K 14:24:48
OP Bancorp 12.750 12.750 12.570 +0.185 +1.47% 20.43K 14:22:07
OptimumBank Holdings 5.520 5.520 5.390 +0.310 +5.95% 18.46K 13:58:23
Orange County Bancorp 37.0000 37.5000 36.4500 -0.5100 -1.36% 1.09K 14:14:34
Origin Bancorp 46.15 46.41 46.01 -0.19 -0.41% 14.83K 14:29:04
Orrstown 24.50 24.79 24.36 -0.05 -0.20% 5.10K 14:22:11
Pacific Premier 43.97 43.99 43.63 +0.31 +0.71% 64.18K 14:38:30
PacWest 48.97 48.97 48.19 +0.59 +1.22% 272.92K 14:38:51
Parke 21.90 22.43 21.82 -0.19 -0.86% 29.44K 14:25:00
Partners Bancorp 9.800 9.815 9.790 +0.010 +0.10% 12.87K 14:33:28
Pathfinder Bancorp 17.00 17.24 16.95 -0.00 -0.03% 2.13K 14:26:50
Patriot National Bancorp 14.270 16.700 11.200 +4.220 +41.99% 474.36K 14:31:59
PB Bankshares 14.50 14.50 14.16 +0.00 +0.00% 0.19K 12:54:40
PCB Bancorp 22.93 23.10 22.52 -0.07 -0.33% 10.77K 14:25:16
PCSB Financial 19.00 19.05 18.91 0.00 0.00% 11.47K 14:24:46
PDL Community 15.35 15.35 15.25 -0.03 -0.16% 0.72K 14:23:32
Peapack-Gladstone 34.91 35.08 34.57 -0.01 -0.03% 10.71K 14:24:18
Penns Woods 24.64 24.98 24.48 -0.01 -0.02% 10.22K 14:23:48
Peoples Bancorp 33.18 33.50 33.00 -0.02 -0.06% 13.43K 14:16:04
Peoples Fin 48.48 49.04 48.10 -0.51 -1.03% 2.24K 14:16:20
Peoples North Carolina 29.12 29.12 28.68 +0.24 +0.83% 0.63K 14:21:45
People’s United 18.61 18.76 18.44 +0.14 +0.79% 2.55M 14:37:53
Pinnacle 104.01 104.06 102.13 +2.81 +2.78% 168.27K 14:38:30
Pioneer Bancorp 12.70 12.93 12.37 -0.27 -2.08% 2.91K 14:14:41
Plumas 36.51 37.46 36.45 +0.12 +0.33% 3.37K 13:46:00
Popular 84.71 84.94 84.36 +0.20 +0.24% 99.91K 14:39:42
Porter Bancorp 18.68 19.00 18.68 -0.16 -0.85% 0.74K 13:38:23
Preferred Bank 70.45 70.45 69.72 +0.72 +1.03% 28.02K 14:39:42
Premier Financial 31.92 32.01 31.76 -0.11 -0.34% 62.46K 14:26:54
Primis Financial 16.00 16.07 15.97 -0.03 -0.19% 41.71K 14:39:07
Professional 19.64 19.83 19.47 -0.04 -0.18% 4.48K 14:13:26
Provident 16.99 16.99 16.83 +0.09 +0.53% 0.44K 14:18:01
Provident Bancorp Inc 19.75 20.10 19.61 -0.31 -1.55% 17.38K 14:23:48
Prudential Pennsylvania 14.74 14.78 14.60 +0.21 +1.45% 2.32K 13:38:24
QCR 57.00 57.08 56.84 +0.05 +0.09% 30.82K 14:38:03
Randolph Bancorp 24.70 25.12 23.65 +0.22 +0.90% 9.86K 14:24:27
RBB Bancorp 26.54 26.82 26.42 -0.24 -0.91% 4.55K 14:12:08
Red River Bancshares 52.38 52.99 50.69 -0.24 -0.47% 3.34K 14:20:14
Reliant Bancorp 35.10 35.50 35.06 -0.33 -0.93% 36.25K 14:34:20
Renasant 39.67 39.85 39.49 +0.15 +0.38% 57.88K 14:25:27
Republic Bancorp 55.57 55.95 55.29 -0.43 -0.77% 3.06K 14:19:11
Republic First Bancorp 3.445 3.570 3.430 -0.045 -1.29% 114.94K 14:24:30
Rhinebeck 10.90 10.90 10.90 +0.07 +0.65% 0.42K 12:50:38
Richmond Mutual Bancorporation 15.80 16.49 15.80 -0.08 -0.50% 8.01K 14:23:33
Riverview 7.950 7.950 7.810 +0.060 +0.76% 22.06K 14:24:57
Riverview Financial 14.50 14.50 14.40 +0.14 +0.97% 12.83K 14:33:59
S&T Bancorp 32.18 32.48 32.07 -0.11 -0.34% 14.03K 14:24:58
Salisbury 55.13 55.30 55.00 -1.87 -3.28% 1.69K 14:23:13
Sandy Spring 50.38 50.53 50.01 +0.15 +0.30% 87.12K 14:34:55
SB Financial 19.13 19.20 19.09 +0.02 +0.10% 1.80K 14:19:39
Seacoast Banking Florida 37.39 37.72 37.00 +0.17 +0.46% 109.67K 14:29:54
Shore Bancshares 19.61 19.63 19.08 +0.01 +0.05% 36.55K 14:25:07
Sierra Bancorp 26.93 26.95 26.85 -0.10 -0.37% 7.24K 14:16:05
Signature Bank 321.65 323.00 317.40 +6.66 +2.11% 224.10K 14:31:19
Simmons First National 32.30 32.32 32.08 +0.31 +0.97% 126.84K 14:36:19
SmartFinancial Inc 26.81 26.86 26.68 +0.11 +0.41% 3.63K 14:16:05
Sound Financial 42.00 42.00 42.00 -0.95 -2.21% 0.56K 13:07:33
South Plains Financial 26.29 26.32 26.01 +0.04 +0.15% 17.41K 14:23:57
South State 84.18 84.71 83.82 +0.62 +0.74% 137.68K 14:36:38
Southern First Bancshares 63.23 64.54 62.83 -0.48 -0.75% 6.69K 14:25:01
Southern Missouri 55.90 57.51 55.37 -1.18 -2.07% 9.88K 14:23:48
Southern States Bancshares 20.00 20.05 19.75 0.00 0.00% 1.55K 13:53:22
Southside 44.13 44.28 44.05 -0.07 -0.16% 22.42K 14:32:20
Spirit Texas 25.39 25.58 25.10 -0.57 -2.20% 38.42K 14:32:50
Sterling Bancorp 5.350 5.470 5.320 -0.040 -0.74% 21.88K 14:19:45
Stock Yards Bancorp 65.74 65.87 65.50 +0.02 +0.03% 10.44K 14:36:54
Summit Financial 27.00 27.54 26.74 -0.48 -1.75% 7.67K 14:19:18
Summit State Bank 15.68 16.24 15.55 -0.49 -3.06% 4.47K 14:17:06
SVB 754.87 755.89 744.02 +10.97 +1.47% 93.78K 14:25:07
TC Bancshares 13.70 13.70 13.70 +0.31 +2.31% 0.55K 12:59:34
Territorial 26.07 26.07 25.95 -0.16 -0.61% 5.51K 14:18:57
Texas Capital 63.10 63.80 62.86 -0.07 -0.11% 123.07K 14:39:42
Texas Community Bancshares 15.50 15.51 15.50 -0.20 -1.27% 6.08K 13:29:04
TFS Financial 19.99 20.07 19.89 +0.03 +0.15% 43.83K 14:25:02
The Bancorp 31.67 32.17 31.34 +0.09 +0.29% 103.91K 14:24:51
The First Bancshares 42.00 42.44 41.72 -0.12 -0.28% 13.99K 14:24:23
Third Coast Bancshares 26.64 26.73 25.05 +1.59 +6.35% 158.25K 14:24:32
Timberland 28.50 28.53 28.31 +0.10 +0.34% 1.96K 14:04:17
Towne Bank 32.80 32.82 32.66 +0.09 +0.28% 22.46K 14:33:48
TriCo 46.34 46.58 46.34 +0.03 +0.06% 18.19K 14:25:28
TriState 30.00 30.32 29.92 -0.17 -0.58% 44.09K 14:24:02
Triumph Bancorp 130.65 131.06 126.70 +3.23 +2.53% 54.47K 14:34:05
TrustCo Bank NY 34.05 34.14 33.84 -0.04 -0.12% 18.28K 14:36:41
Trustmark 33.97 33.99 33.70 +0.11 +0.32% 92.38K 14:37:00
UMB Financial 106.60 106.95 105.44 +1.08 +1.02% 60.02K 14:25:27
Umpquas 21.38 21.73 21.36 -0.21 -1.00% 544.50K 14:38:32
Union 32.49 32.49 32.40 +0.41 +1.28% 0.57K 14:13:08
United Bancorp 15.15 15.15 15.08 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
United Bancshares 29.05 29.40 29.05 -0.12 -0.43% 1.42K 13:09:53
United Bankshares 38.62 38.83 38.30 +0.17 +0.44% 181.67K 14:39:10
United Community Banks 36.15 36.38 35.93 -0.08 -0.22% 139.32K 14:33:38
United Security 8.060 8.100 8.060 -0.060 -0.74% 3.92K 14:18:05
Unity 27.12 27.99 26.62 -0.28 -1.00% 10.53K 14:23:21
Univest 30.13 30.20 30.02 +0.11 +0.37% 13.80K 14:24:48
US Century Bank 14.60 14.76 14.02 +0.14 +0.93% 16.37K 14:17:08
Valley National 14.52 14.53 14.40 +0.12 +0.80% 590.52K 14:40:08
Veritex Holdings Inc 43.24 43.28 42.82 +0.48 +1.12% 91.99K 14:35:12
VersaBank 12.80 13.17 12.80 -0.36 -2.74% 20.98K 14:29:17
Village Bank&Trust 58.01 58.22 56.97 +0.00 +0.00% 0 12/11
Virginia National Bankshares 37.00 37.00 36.75 +0.60 +1.65% 2.04K 14:16:00
Washington Federal 35.71 35.76 35.54 +0.07 +0.20% 100.13K 14:38:33
Washington Trust 57.77 57.90 56.80 +0.06 +0.10% 11.81K 14:24:46
Waterstone 22.06 22.06 21.94 -0.03 -0.14% 37.11K 14:36:52
WesBanco 35.83 35.84 35.65 +0.19 +0.53% 100.05K 14:28:42
West Bancorporation 33.25 33.51 32.63 -0.22 -0.66% 7.24K 14:25:01
Westamerica Bancorporation 57.41 57.41 57.17 +0.32 +0.56% 15.12K 14:35:44
Western New England 9.400 9.400 9.280 +0.150 +1.62% 31.78K 14:34:47
William Penn Bancorp 12.24 12.24 12.12 +0.11 +0.89% 1.90K 12:36:51
Wintrust 93.07 93.36 92.29 +0.70 +0.76% 95.58K 14:38:36
WSFS 55.11 55.14 54.73 +0.26 +0.47% 70.26K 14:34:39
WVS Financial 15.60 15.60 15.45 0.00 0.00% 0 12/11
Zions 66.54 66.54 65.70 +1.06 +1.62% 524.12K 14:39:50
NQ BANK - Seems the ISSUE of Money Markets is...Indeed becoming and issue as the Federal Reserve's Backstop is
tettering on the Brink of trading below PAR.
We'll need to see Yeilds RISE in order to stem the increasing stresses
mounting within the Banking System.
Given the ST Louis FED has discontinued it's reporting of:
National Rate on Jumbo Deposits (greater or equal to $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED)
National Rate on Non-Jumbo Deposits (less than $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED)
Rate Cap on Jumbo Deposits (greater or equal to $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED)
Rate Cap on Non-Jumbo Deposits (less than $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED)
What would could possibly go oh so very wrong.
Financials - NQ BankSince March 18, 2021 the Financials have diverged from the Equities Complex.
This can be observed in the NQ Bank Chart above.
It suggests a Financial Storm is brewing.
The Bond Complex is 10.2X the size of the Equities Complex by Value.
Bonds have been Bid since January along with the US DX, it is interesting to observe the JPY/DX Pair.
There is a Divergence between Nominal and Real Rates of Interest - one which in my humble is ominous.
It leads me back to the last time Real Rates diverged this significantly - The DX Broke par. In essence,
Depositors were momentarily required to pay Banks to hold Deposits. A clear negative ROI for CASH.
It is important to remember, Deposits are a Liability. This is the Salient point when Banks are calling
in Lines of Credit and reducing Lending (their primary source of Income) - The net effect is to divert
Cash to Money Market Funds which increases the "Potential" for CASH to fall below bar @ 100 Basis.
On September 16, 2008 - After Lehman's Bankruptcy - Money Market Managers at the Reserve Primary Fund
were unable to maintain PAR on the United States Dollar.
It was not solely the Reserve Primary Fund.
Nearly 80 additional Institution's "Money Market Funds" - which can be swept into Short Term T-Bills
(Short Supply then as now) - were at risk of contributing to a cascading event which required then
Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin to issue in excess of $2 Trillion in T-Bills to provide the
necessary BackStop for the Dollar.
Most often, Money Market Funds are used for short term obligations, this is the primary account
for businesses to access their deposits as needed for operations. After the Lehman collapse
(sacrifice by GSCO courtesy of Hank Paulson) confidence dropped dramatically, a panic ensued.
Worried investors quickly moved funds to US Treasuries. This forced Treasury yields to drop below zero.
Investors were so panicked that they no longer cared if they received a rate of return on their investment.
Instead, they opted for the return of their capital.
The rapid collapse in confidence created enormous Risk, much akin as to what we are observing now.
Banks were hoarding cash during this period. Lending, then as now had flattened and then began to
decline in the months that proceeded this event. Collateral was scrutinized, then as now as can be
witnessed via the REPO & Reverse Repurchase Pools.
Then, Banks wanted to have the cash on hand in case of mass redemptions, they were holding
nearly $200 Billion then.
Contrast this with now - Primary Broker Dealer / Money Center Banks - DO NOT DEPOSITS (CASH) -
to the contrary, they are behaving in exactly the opposite manner.
This event should be of concern, actually it should be of immense concern.
* it is important to note the Russel 2000 and S&P 500 have a large Financial Component.
Can NQ BANK perform a reversal, it can, this is not a recommendation to Short Financials. It is a
very clear warning sign - we are quickly approaching another Lehman Event.
I have posted my strategy for profiting from this Event earlier today.
NEW UP WAVE FOR BANKS .I myself have now gone net long 90 % ALL BANKS for what lloks to be the start of wave 5 up into late july to mid aug peak
BANK STOCKS HAVE TOPPED SELL EVERYTHING IN BANKS WAVE STRUCTURE A ALT COUNT .We have just ended and ABC RALLY
Take a look at the Bank sector, in ThailandBank sector is looking interesting. Is about to retest the double bottom pattern. And I see 412-420 area as a possible target.
Ready to fall 80%+. Bank stocks going for free fall skydiving?Same pattern playing out from the last time. This time the scale is much larger so the downside is much greater imo.
BANK INDEX IS CANARY IN THE COAL MINE TROUBLE AHEAD THE SP is now into my alt targets if it is a wave b it would peak 2844 or 2852 if it is a 5th it will peak 2862 or 2873 look for a drop to 2700 area oil is peaking and trouble in HYG
