BBBY trade ideas
BBBY - up or down?its all going to come down to the earnings event on jan 7
trying to think of a way to play this safely but its tough b/c earnings are just a binary event
we have a gap to fill down below or an opportunity to break out of the wedge
company itself is questionable in terms of fundamentals
will bed bath and beyond deliver? Earnings are Thursday January 7th 2021 i exect the unthinkable with this stock. it has earned it's nickname "Blood Bath" but as i'm writing my analysis on this. i think tomorrow's report is going to have a major factor i.e. the sell of their subsidiaries but, i don't expect this to go to the $21 range it might but looking at a monthly of NASDAQ:BBBY , you have a long way to go back to highs
Breadown of a descending triangle with gap to fill.Looking at a bearish descending triangle that broke below the support line on Thursday. Could potentially buy puts here and target the gap fill. If youre ballsy you can target the measured move from the height of the triangle downward. Not financial advice.
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY, MU EARNINGS; ICLN, SLV, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
I've culled down all of next week's earnings announcements to options highly liquid underlyings where the 30-day is >50% and am left with two potential candidates for volatility contraction plays: BBBY (23/99/26.3%)* and MU (23/53/14.0%).
BBBY announces on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesdays session; MU, announces on Thursday after market close.
Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in the February cycle (49 days), which was paying 1.27 at the mid price as of Friday close with break evens wide of two times the expected move on the call side and slightly above the 2x on the put and delta/theta of -1.07/3.12. Naturally, you can see the call side skew here, with the similarly-delta'd short put 3.76 away from current price, but the call 7.24 away, so the underlying may merit a look at alternative plays that take advantage of this.
In contrast, the shorter duration January 15th 15/22.5 (14 days) was paying 1.02, with delta/theta metrics of .21/7.91, with the natural trade-off's being less room to be wrong, but a quicker resolution of the trade should you be right.
With MU, I'd look at a Plain Jane 2x expected move short strangle, which here would be the January 15th 68.5/85, paying 1.71 or the February 19th 62.5/90, paying 2.30.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
ICLN (9/51/15.0%)
SLV (33/48/13.6%)
XLE (23/41/11.4%)
XBI (27/39/11.2%)
EWZ (14/39/11.1%)
GDX (15/38/11.1%)
XME (14/38/10.7%)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (25/31/8.1%)
QQQ (19/27/7.1%)
SPY (15/22/5.4%)
EFA (20/21/5.2%)
BOND FUNDS:
TLT (16/18/4.4%) (Yield: 1.609%)
HYG (7/13/2.0%) (Yield: 4.917%)
EMB (4/7/2.0%) (Yield: 4.024%)
AGG (28/8/1.7%) (Yield: 2.252%)
* -- The first number is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the February 19th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
Will support hold for the breakout?! Short Float at 61.28%BBBY is holding the 50% Fib retrace as strong support within this triangle. ER is coming up on Jan 7th and news can change the analysis.
TTM Squeeze is showing upside momentum into a squeeze and MACD is curling to the upside on the daily. If the support holds we can see a strong breakout to the upside.
If it fails, we can see a strong downside through the volume void from the last ER gap up. Another thing worth noting, BBBY has one of the highest Short Float at 61.28%.
BBBY - Rise or Fall?BBBY has been a business that has struggled for a long time, especially with COVID impacting their business model. With the world looking to open back up, and vaccines coming around the corner, it may be time for BBBY to regain some momentum. The monthly chart has the price reclaiming the 50 Period Moving Average, with the 9 Period Exponential Moving Average catching up, leading me to believe that this could be a good dip buy for BBBY.
The reason I am neutral on this ticker is that there is also a gap fill below, so if any bad news hits the market with regards to reopening, or the vaccine, it could be played to the short side as well. Nonetheless, as long as it holds the top of that gap as the support level, we could be seeing a really good opportunity to go long into their ER on 1/7/2021.