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Bilibili: Q2 2021 Results Surpass ExpectationsThe popular video platform has released its quarterly financial and operating results – which show a stellar performance. Bilibili maintained a high growth rate in Q2 and gained over USD 1 billion in the first half of 2021, which exceeded its expectations. The company has attracted a large number of active creators and increased its user numbers through diversified content and business model optimization. The company might set its orientation in innovative advertising and self-developed games for the next quarter, while the uncertainty of its new business and the problem of banned events will pose the main risks. On August 19, 2021, Bilibili held the Q2 2021 earnings call that revealed positive financial results beyond its best predictions. However, with negative impacts from the recent changes in the United States and China's listing-related policies, such outstanding financials have not boosted the stock price. Beating expectations Bilibili's second-quarter results topped the expectations of the market. During that period, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 4.50 billion, up 72% year over year. It is the first time the company has achieved over USD 1 billion in revenue (about CNY 6.5 billion) in half a year. However, its quarterly loss from the operation has expanded to CNY 1.52 billion, up 47.5% quarter over quarter and 149.3% year over year mainly due to the increasing sales and marketing expenses (from CNY 1 billion to CNY 1.40 billion). Though Bilibili received a higher investment income this quarter, its net loss increased to CNY 1.12 billion, up 23.9% quarter on quarter. Following 2020, the company's mobile game revenue has tended to be stable, with weak growth. However, its e-commerce, advertising and 'value-added services' (VAS) businesses have started to pick up and helped the company maintain momentum. This is good news for Bilibili as it has stabilized its profit model and improved its anti-risk abilities in light of fierce competition. Nevertheless, we think the company is still in a critical period of increasing accessible users. We believe that the company will maintain a relatively aggressive marketing strategy to improve brand awareness based on the increasing marketing expenses. At the same time, Bilibili has been further enriching content categories and broadening differential-age groups to achieve its user growth goals. The company has a sticky and loyal user base that allows it to maintain a high growth rate during this quarter. By the end of June 30, 2021, the average monthly active users (MAUs) of Bilibili reached 237.1 million, up 38% year on year, while its average daily active users (DAUs) reached 62.7 million, up 24% year on year. The average user time spent on its website and app rose to 81 minutes per user per day, setting a historical record. For the paid subscribers, this group grew to 20.9 million users, surging 62% compared with the level of June 30, 2020, which indicates users' increasing engagement. Diversifying businesses Over the past decade, Bilibili has continuously expanded its content coverage and improved its user experience. This platform has become one of the most popular online communities in China and attracted a large number of stable and active UGC creators and users with high stickiness. These features equip the company with high competitiveness in the video entertainment domain. By the end of the second quarter, the company had attracted 121 million official members, up 35% year over year, and its 12-month retention rates remained around 80%. In the second quarter, Bilibili incubated 2.4 million content creators, up 25% year over year. Video submission grew to 8.4 million in the period, up 41% year over year. Also, the number of content creators with more than 10,000 followers increased by 47% year-over-year. Starting in 2020, the company's mobile game revenue began to turn stable, but this segment's growth has been weak in the past years. However, its e-commerce, advertising and value-added services (VAS) business growth has started to pick up and help the company maintain steady growth. This may be a good thing for Bilibili, that is, it has changed from a single profit model to a more balanced one, improving its business agility and thus hedging against risks. Nevertheless, we think it is still in a critical period of expanding the range of accessible users. We believe that the company will maintain relatively aggressive marketing methods to improve brand awareness, the increasing marketing expenses can testify to this point. At the same time, further enriching content categories and broadening differential-age groups may help Bilibili achieve its user growth goals. For the business segments, we think Bilibili has two obvious developing directions: innovative advertising and self-developed games. On the one hand, according to the call, Bilibili said it will continue to explore new advertisement formats in areas like video advertising and embedded advertising. These new streams will contribute to the boom of its advertising revenue. As for the mobile game segment, the company announced in the earnings call's Q&A session that Bilibili will focus more on self-developed games in the second half of 2021. It has over 1,000 team members and multiple self-developed projects have been progressing. Considering the unbalanced nature of the demand and supply chains, we think Bilibili's mobile game business is approaching a turning point. However, it is hard to develop games that resonate with the company's unique community culture and user characteristics – other than ACG-related ones. Hence, we have some reservations about its effect on the near-future performance of the company. Valuation and bottom line Since Bilibili is yet to make a profit, we used the EV/revenue ratio and chose IQ, HUYA and DOYU as its competitors. From the chart, it is obvious that the ratio jumped compared with its competitors since Q4 2019, owing to its continuous high growth. Based on its current financial performance, momentum and competitive landscape, we think 17x is an appropriate valuation for Bilibili in 12 months, which corresponds to a target price of USD 98.90 apiece. Risks 1. The largest risk in the next quarter comes from the company's gaming business. Factors such as the slow development and the wayward demand for new games may lead to the slow growth of the mobile game segment in the next quarter. 2. Another risk comes from the ban of uploaders publishing inappropriate content. In 2021, two of the most popular uploaders in Bilibili, LexBurner and Dangmei (link in Chinese), were banned for such a reason, having repercussions for the whole community. Events of this kind normally hurt the platform's reputation in China, with users migrating to its alternatives. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:BILILong
by EqualOcean
Pull Back FishingPossible stop under D. Price fell below the lower bollinger band with an SMA on 80 verses 20. This can also be a bearish signal and exhibits extreme selling pressure, so here you play it by ear and go with your gut. A strong security will often snap back in to the bands and many will trade at least back up to the middle band. Price fell below the bottom band with the SMA set on 80 which shows extreme selling pressure. A strong stock will snap back inside the bollinger bands. Falling below the bottom can also be a bearish signal, as some will continue falling. This is where you play it by ear and use your gut feeling. On average a stock that goes below the lower band will snap back The Bullish Gartley looks like a crooked M. It is labeled XABCD with D being the end of the pattern at the .786 of XA. The retracement of XA which is leg AB should hit the .618. This pulled back a few dollars more than the .786 but was close. There is also a bearish Gartley that appears as a crooked W. This was a former arc that has pulled just beyond 79%. Parabolic Arcs can be volatile for a while after hitting the landing pad. Parabolic arcs are easier for me to see on the weekly timeframe and appear as an inverted C with a very steep climb up. An arc can be very profitable on the way up, but financially devastating on the way down if you do not get out in time. An arc is difficult to trade on the way down as they are known to be very volatile. Most arcs decline by 50 to 79% on the way down with the average falling between 62 and 79%. There is extreme bullishness on the way up which causes a unsustainable steep rise up. One of the 7 deadly sins, Greed, can bring an arc back down to earth. People will typically sell when they have made enough profit, causing more selling, then fear and panic. The moving averages look awful and most do after a decline this deep. Many prefer to enter the trade when price is over the 50 at least. The 200 is sloping up which is the longest of the moving averages. The rest appear droopy )o: No recommendation and possibly very much on the risky side. Negative volume is high. There is a small gap under price that may serve as support. If price dips in to this gap it may go to the bottom of the small gap as there is no recent price action inside of the gap.
NASDAQ:BILI
by lauralea
1
Make money even if you ain't into gamingI can't play games nor have any interest in gaming yet my portfolio consists of several gaming companies like Tencent , Huya, etc As investor, we must look at the business from multiple perspective. Of course, if you are into gaming, it may offers you a different insight into the game. But, understanding the trend, psychology behind the gaming thrills, etc can be a skill honed over times. Read news here . My first post was here which if you had invested , you would have made 2 and half times profits already ,haha.
CAPITALCOM:BILILong
by dchua1969
2-618 Short off supply Hi guys I get a lot of questions on what a 2-618 trade to find bottoms & tops, (longs & shorts) fairly simple set up & works in all time frames, typically higher times frame= more confluence, often more risk as well. Find supply/structure (LOOK LEFT!) typically they will be too far from moving averages and will be pulled back (gravitation) to 10 or 20 day. Find M shaped double top, let it make a break low. use fib to measure move high to low (red arrow) Sit and wait patiently at 618% level to short stop above high ( with price action ) , This is great example, Notice the shooting star candle that closed under 618% level, notice sellers creating rising volume bars i highlighted, this was institutional money cashing out imo. Notice the the moves (green arrows) which i cloned & added to right of pattern so you can risk to reward, (red arrows are mae or risk factor) More then mae, my favorite thing about my Mentors patterns, ( @tntsunrise ) when they hit you are green a lot of times instantly often very ( up big $ w in seconds) , that's when you know your selling/buying w an edge, This plan paid 60 points on 3 trips from 618% with a total of 7 points in Mae in red, see contrast in arrows(cloned) on right red= measured move in red, green = measured move in profit, learn this it pays and very well, if you want to try to find this pattern & draw it, try JD, then compare with my JD plan i posted, it is the same exact play, you will start to see very often once you train your eyes.
NASDAQ:BILI
by Hiddenharmonicstrading
1