11/7/24 - $bird - More interested $7-8/shr11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: $ IDX:BIRD
More interested $7-8/shr
- mgmt is operating on their own time
- beyond M&A, it's hard to see how stock really moves higher in the 3-6 month timeframe, unless it catches some momentum in this whacky environment where rando-stuff-moon. but i'd not bet my dog's tennis ball on it
- basically mgmt "taking right" actions still e.g. store closing, gearing up for some interesting product launches/ marketing but it sounds like we get to see this all playing out in 2H25. that's an eternity to wait for a result that wasn't really a beat (inside guidance) and where guidance for 4Q/FY was taken lower. ewww, that doesn't work in this environment.
- while balance sheet remains net cash and we can decide how to handle leases (maybe i say it's not $50 but $25 mm of "debt") that still say puts us in a $50 mm net cash position. at the same time we burn 10-15 mm a quarter until someone buys the company or results start to inflect. rough. essentially by 4Q, we'll either be raising with a good story, or stock will have started to work a bit as FCF inflects positive (probably a '26 event at the earliest given my experience operating in reality)
- so what's the brand worth? 1x gross profit? 0.5x gross profit?
- really hard to say. i think you need to assume someone like NYSE:BIRK , NASDAQ:CROX , NYSE:ONON (even NASDAQ:LULU ) could buy these guys and cut a lot of the SG&A out on their bigger platform. this is why i think multiple of gross profit makes the most sense.
- at most i'd say 1x gross profit which if/when you assume buyers would want to see the new lineup in the market (bc the current portfolio is still not growing... so why complicate things for yourself), and take out all the net cash bc we burned it getting there, that's the stock as of y'day call it $10-11/shr or ~90 mm market cap.
- but if we need to wait, what's the right discount rate for something like this 25-30%? private equity style? so you're now at probably $7-8/shr today and it waffles up or down depending on how well these marketing/ launches go next year
TL;DR... the company's best option is to sell today at some modest premium. i think they've made it quite hard to do so in delaying this decision for years. now they need to swim. and the stock is on it's back heading into tax sell off season and where the ticker is too small cap for (real) institutions to get involved and what would an activist really accomplish in a founder-led situation like this on fire? unfortunately i think this thing is going lower and/or i'm uninterested unless we start entering the mid single digits, call it $7-8, minimally.
talk then. stay well.
V
BIRD trade ideas
Allbird BIRDI purchased huge chunks of this, paper trading over about a six-month period, dollar cost averaging, and just bought a little more while it was basing. As you can see from the circles, the RSI and MACD are one their way up, and this stock has broken up from its basing. For the longest time, as it dropped and dropped, I thought I would actually see it delisted, which would allow me to see what happens when such an event occurs; i.e., the type of notice an investor would receive, would it disappear completely over the following months, etc. I’ve been paper trading for about six months and do a great deal of swing trading based on JBravo, with considerable success. (All kids should be taught how to paper trade. It has just as much suspense and excitement as the shoot-em-up apps they play now.)
How I purchased originally was I was sucked into an Analyst’s long hold forecasted profits for this stock way back when. The education is amazing. Originally I believe it was forecast to have a 26% + return, and as the months and the earnings reports went on, the forecasted increase in stock price fell and fell and fell. It is now at 15. Today it has popped out of its basing, but as was apparent a few weeks ago, it has done it before, only to fall. I will be sticking with swing trading as the analysts do not have crystal balls, and the predictability of reading charts is much easier and more reliable. There is an earnings call within about a week, and it will be interesting to see if this dumps into the dungeon of delisting or rises like a phoenix from the ashes.
Why is Allbirds stock down 70% since its IPO?Allbirds (NASDAQ: BIRD), the New Zealand footwear company, was listed on the Nasdaq in November 2021 at a starting price of US $21.21 and found a range between US $20 and $30 for one month.
Its mission to create the world's first carbon-neutral shoe brand appealed to investors, perhaps those of the ESG persuasion, who have pushed a record US $650 billion of funds into ESG project in 2021. As noted by the Financial Post, Allbirds mentioned the word "sustainability" 112 times in its IPO filing.
Starting December 2021, up to the time of writing, BIRD stock has plummeted to US $5.99, and its market cap has reduced to US $4 billion from US $900 million. While the company has been performing admirably, as per its quarterly report released on February 23, BIRD's stock price has flown south for the winter, as it's caught up in the same winddown experienced by many other of its growth stock brethren.
Over the past few months, investors have generally turned against growth stocks ever since it became apparent that the US Federal Reserve would be hiking interest rates to combat the countries inflation that is famously at a 40-year high.
Allbirds is firmly in the category of a growth stock and a unique growth stock at that, as its typically eco-conscious customers return less frequently to the Allbirds checkout aisle. This means its growth strategy and attempt to build brand awareness has to be particularly aggressive.
As such, Allbirds is ploughing its cash flow and cash reserves into gaining more customers, opening brick-and-mortar stores, and expanding its apparel range. The company is projecting revenue of US $360 million in the 2022 financial year, a big lift in revenue over 2021, but still expects to make a loss of approximately US $11 million. Interestingly, it should be noted that about US $8 million of this shortfall is attributed to compliance costs associated with becoming a public company.
Even though Allbirds may bootstrap its growth expenses with its cash flow and reserves, it does have US $40 million available under a revolving credit agreement. The cost of borrowing capital moving forward, should it need to meet its aggressive growth strategy, may become increasingly costly in line with the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
$BIRD – SI 45%Allbirds, Inc. manufactures and sells footwear and apparel products for men and women. It offers shoes, such as running shoes, everyday sneakers, high-tops, slip-ons, boat shoes, flats, weather repellent shoes, and sandals. The company's apparel products include activewear, tops, bottoms, dresses, sweaters, underwear, and socks. It sells its products through its retail stores in the United States and internationally, as well as online. Allbirds, Inc. was formerly known as Bozz, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Francisco, California.
$BIRD is giving a GREAT IPO LONG opportunity todayIPO intraday trading strategy idea
The share price is rising and gonna continue this trend today.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price today.
So I opened a long position from $23,85;
stop-loss — $20,04;
take-profit — $35,28/MOC price.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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