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Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

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Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF forum

Given that ILTB only dates back to 2011, one may look to an approximation to analyze its sensitivity to recessions. I've charted (HQMCB10YR+US10Y)/2 as such. For the most part it's highly correlated to the 10 year Treasury, but shit the bed during the GFC. If you can't handle the turbulence stick with BND, which has lower corporate exposure, or just straight Treasuries with no corporate exposure 💪

tradingview.com/x/MTvFnvBz
Snapshot

US20Y US10Y US5Y BND TLT We predict the 20 year Treasury yield will see a slight dip soon, followed by a return to an upward trend by mid 2025
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BND Powell prediction:

25bp cut
Fed's predicted rationale - optimistic inflation is under control but staying vigilant also, economy and consumers both look decent but not spectacular so 50 isn't necessary right now, but we stand ready if either falters

Looks like a major bull pennant structure for long duration Treasurys.

US20Y TLT US10Y BND US02Y
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