May remain volatile until market convinced with revenue growthI am holding my long position,
don't think it will drop too much from here and not an optimal entry for short-sellers,
but also don't think it will go up significantly without the market seeing it proves a sustainable double digits sales growth YOY.
I think plant-based meat has the potential to take some market share in the real meat market and BYND is the leader given it has entered into the Chinese market and also opened up two facilities for more production in China, we all know what happened to TSLA share price after it embraced Chinese market.
I do believe more and more people (especially young people born after the 00s and 10s) will eventually accept plant-based meat as an alternative to real meat and BYND would be like Coke or Pepsi in the beverage business, leader, but how fast the adoption will take place remains unclear.
However, the current BYND market share (< 9 billion USD) suggests a very low market share (below 1% market share) from a long-term perspective and I think BYND can only improve its position in this market from now.
"The global beef market size was estimated at USD 323.92 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 332.49 billion in 2020."
Imagine what would the market cap of BYND be if it took a 10% - 30% market share permanently, which means 30 billion - 90 billion sales per year? In FY2020, it had 0.4 billion sales.
30% market share may be too optimistic, but 10% market share isn't. Imagine 1/3 of the population who consume real beef will take one of three meals per day with plant-based meat in the future, which gives a roughly 1/10 market share. Let alone BYND will offer more than plant-based beef. You do the calculation.
