Members Daily Analysis Feb 15Small Caps strong on weak dollar and yields.
QQQ & XLK lagging on Microsoft weakness
Semiconductor & Cloud stocks showing weakness.
Oil strong + Nat Gas weak
COIN trade ideas
Coin pushes leading into earningsCoin definitely reversed trend alongside BTC. I find BTC is often lead by Coin ahead of time and Link token before these big pumps. I would not be surprised to see this stock push 185$. More bullish would be a retake of the teal momentum trend line ~200. Let us see how earnings goes, the market seems to only care about guidance. Coinbase should have a lot of positive guidance related to BTC custody, Base, increased fees, subscriptions and more.
SEC ENDS CRYPTO DRAMA BY GREEN LIGHTING 11 BITCOIN ETF'SThis has been in the pipeline for quite a while but there was still an uncertainty around whether or not the SEC could continue to delay what most feel was inevitable.
The bit that caught my interest though was mentions of Coinbases heavy involvment around helping "to address the SEC's manipulation concerns, Nasdaq and CBOE have created a market surveillance mechanism with Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange".
I feel like it further "legitimises" Coinbase as an exchange that previously concerned consumers and the SEC itself might now embrace.
Coinbases price has risen nicely over the year and with its recent pullback it could be interesting to see what happens next. Might be a good entry area if you have done your research and decide to buy.
Coinbase Update: Still making standard moves so farAs I said in my last post, I expected us to drop again today. It was a tad bit stronger than I anticipated but CPI can do that. The important thing is we didn't break any critical areas to invalidate the count. I set my stop @ $137 and we hit $137.13 before heading higher lol. Talk about close call. I expect us to head higher again tomorrow towards the final target box for wave (i).
Once the structure looks complete, and we top on neg div, I plan on selling my position with the intention on buying back in towards the bottom of wave (ii). That should be a 3-wave retrace and will be the official confirmation of our count.
Should we drop again tomorrow and take out my stop, there is a possibility I am one degree off, and wave (ii) has already started. With the strength this ticker has shown off the bottom from 07 Feb, I am convinced we made our bottom until it proves otherwise.
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
Sofi - A possible repeating patternA repeating pattern and potential opportunity
All three companies have some form of crypto offering.
NUbank, Coinbase and Sofi appear to have similar bottoming patterns with double bottoms and a head and shoulders style reversal. The charts are not identical but you can clearly see a repeating testing of levels and a price cluster (red shaded area) which appears to be the new base forming offering good enough support for a trade set up. Under the price cluster red shaded area there are double bottoms.
I have been in the NUBank trade since Jan 2023 at $3.51 and I noticed COIN had a similar bottoming pattern in June 2023 but it had not broken out yet, so I shared a comparative chart at the time and took a position in COIN, noting the stop as the bottom of the red box. I have shared individual charts on COIN and NU to this effect also.
Since June COINBASE has had 120% increase and I believe this will continue.
Whilst its price movement since the sharing in June is not identical to NUbank, you can clearly see a parallel channel bottoming, head and shoulders reversal and similar price clusters which i marked up.
I was most confident on the COIN trade when it had its strong pull back from Jul - Oct, here I double the position when it came back and bounced off the the 200 day moving average perfectly.
Two of the great trades of this year from me which I am still currently holding NYSE:NU and $Coin.
I believe there maybe an opportunity for this much smaller company $SOFI. A trade set up is there with a defined stop and good risk to reward (outlined on chart). I have not entered this trade yet, but i may in coming weeks. I will keep you posted.
PUKA
$COIN FIB EXTENSION potential Cup & Handle forming!The next levels to look out for are:
172, 186 and do I dare say 230 after ER??
COIN has to retest 186 and blast through to 230 on next area of resistance on the fib extension.
Good Luck to all if you are playing Earnings this Thursday!
I will be taking profit and rolling contracts into 230s for 3/1 regardless if up or down, I will average in if it drops but expect COIN to keep the momentum flowing.
I expect a beat and raise on guidance! Chart just looks too good for it to not pop, proceed with caution!
COINBASE-BUY strategy Daily chartIt has closed nicely with a hammer bottom, and it had difficulty trading below the Kelner base as well. The stochastic is low, and it feels that likely we move back to test $ 145 again. I remain BUY strategy for this share for the short-term.
Strategy BUY @ 120-125 and take profit @ $ 155 for now. SL below 113.00
COINBASE: The lengthy BUY/SELL wave pattern to $280.Coinbase is trading on its 1D MA50 on a marginally bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.372, MACD = -1.520, ADX = 34.856) despite the recent breakout. The long term pattern is a Channel Down and according to the Wave Structure of the HH and HL levels, we still have another 30 days (March 14th) until the bottom of the current Wave, which should at all times be supported by the 0.618 Fibonacci level and of course the 1D MA200.
When the 1D RSI crosses over the LH trendline, we will have a buy signal regardless of the price level. The range between each HH-to-HH and HL-to-HL isn't absolute but is close, well balanced and as you can see, fairly symmetric. Our target is at +144.50% from the recent low (TP = 280.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Coinbase Update: Wave iii target hit; Is iv already done?Technically speaking, we have a 3-wave move off the $150.35 high. The MACD on the 15min chart came down and is hovering above the zero line. The 3min MACD appears to be gaining strength for an upward movement. These all point to wave iv being done already and us heading higher again tomorrow to start wave v of (i).
Looking at the 3min micro chart though, MACD made a bottom on the $145.80 low. This suggests there is further downside coming up. Not to mention the wave ii was very shallow and short, meaning for the alternation theory to remain intact, iv should be deep and long. A standard wave iv should cause price to lower again tomorrow into the target box for a mini-wave c.
Either way, rather iv is done or not, both counts point to the larger box to finish out wave v of (i). After wave (i) is finished I expect us to make a 3-wave retrace for wave (ii). Until this current move higher finishes though, I can't give accurate targets for the retrace down. As of now this trade is up almost 24%. Not too bad for 4 trading days, eh? Until tomorrow....
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
Coinbase Update: Should head higher with BTCAs the title suggests BTC is headed higher in its wave v. Without going too much into it, the wave v target for BTC right now is anywhere from $50k-$70k. This, IMHO will help to drive up Coinbase even more and pairs nicely with my predictions. If you look at the top right of the chart you can see my wave v of (i) label. This shows my price target for this part of the count should hit around $153 before starting its wave (ii) retrace. We won't go straight there obviously but should hit there before a meaningful retrace.
My thoughts for where we head next is around the 1.618 extension @ $147.34. After this we should have a small retrace for iv to the area of the 1.0 @ $138.21 before raising for v of (i). At this time MACD supports this count. Notice how it made a new high at our wave 3 top and came down to the zero line? If you read my Tesla post from tonight, you would notice I mentioned wave 4's typically don't go very far below the zero line if at all on the MACD. Look at the MACD on this chart.
Something to remember, we're still in the primary wave ((3)), so extensions should be expected. If y'all bought in around the same time as me, then you're already up $20+/share. That's almost a 15% profit and this count has just started. My trading plan is to hold until we top and then sell. Once we get the 3-wave retrace for (ii) I'll buy back in even more. If (i) tops at the 2.0 extension, then I expect price to drop back down to the $130's for wave (ii). Until then that is just speculation. Let's wait for price to prove this count right or wrong.
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
COINLocked and loaded for COIN earnings this week
Weekly and March 150-180 strike calls active, sold puts 130
Added to 2025 call LEAPS
Thesis: BTC number go up and COIN has unfinished biz from Dec 2023. The pullback to support (130s area) with deviation below came and went. Did you buy the dip anon?
Coin directional bias is BullishMonthly Chart
There is an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern created on the monthly chart. This suggests that the trend has shifted and now moving higher. This also provides a directional bias to look for buys.
Weekly Chart
The inverted H&S pattern is much clearer on the weekly chart, plus there were additional low-risk entries created on the right shoulder and an additional entry after the break and retest of the neckline.
Daily Chart
I will be looking to buy Coinbase once it fills the gap and moves lower to the previous resistance level that now become a support level.
Coin washout completeCoin had a rather rapid washout landing in the middle of my two downside price targets. Thankfully I didnt short during my last short post as BTC pumped right afterwards. My dead cat bounce theory has not yet been rejected but it is getting there. I would need to see full bodied daily candles above 48k to feel like the upward run continues without a correction. The year of BTC halving has always had a 30-40% correction in the few months before, will we still see it?
Coinbase Update: Extension or did wave (iii) StartWe still don't yet have 100% confirmation, but we technically speaking don't get that until we make a new high lol. What I would like to have seen was a clean 3-wave retrace hitting standard fibs, but when do we ever get exactly what we want? That being said, the type of price action we are seeing seems completely impulsive to me. This combined with the fact that I have been predicting this type of action helps reinforce my thesis on the count. The above chart is zoomed out so y'all can see all the meat still left on the bones in this trade. Should it do what I am predicting, there is still $110 / share in profit to be made from where we're currently at .
In my last post I stated, "we need OMH for mini-wave 5 followed by a 3-wave move retrace." We got that OMH in premarket, but the retrace that followed was very short and shallow. As in it barely even shows on the 15min & 1HR charts and didn't even register in the 4HR chart. Looking at MACD on the micro's it appears that was the wave ii I was waiting for, but structurally / fib levels say we're in an extended wave i. Structure is ALWAYS the most important thing so I have to stay with it and count this as an extension.
Below is the 15min chart with more data and shows where price moved beyond standard fibs. Once this happens you ONLY have structure to guide you. As always, the turquoise count is the ALT I'm tracking. Notice also, this last marginal high price made was on neg div in the 15min chart. This implies that a retrace is coming up soon. I feel we get OMH into the 3.618 fib and then start our retrace lower for wave ii. It is with-in that retrace that I plan on adding to my position.
When we do start to drop, I will update with my next target box where I expect price to end and turn around heading higher again. Right now, the standard retrace would take us to the low $120's. Good luck and I will be updating tomorrow as needed. As always, I will post any trades I make on here.
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
Coinbase Update: OMH needed for CLEAN 5-wavesI feel like I updated y'all throughout the day and don't have much to add. The smallest timeframe I can post is a 15min chart or I would post the 3min graph for more detail. As you see here I believe we need OMH for mini-wave 5 followed by a 3-wave move retrace. This, followed by an impulsive move higher is the confirmation we are waiting on. If this is the case, our next larger move up should target the $190 area AT A MINIMUM. With wave (1) extending to the 0.786 fib extension, I think it more likely to tag the 1.618 @ $242.45. for (5) of ((3)).
There is the possibility we have already hit mini-wave 5 top due to structure but looking at fibs and MACD I feel we need another high to the target box. After that I expect a 3-wave retracement to the $117-$120 area. If this is what happens, I will most likely buy another 30 shares + some calls. I have appointments tomorrow, but I will update as able. God bless y'all!!
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
$COIN Continuing to Respect Bearish OrderflowIn short COIN is showing a constant respect to bearish orderflow while in discount. I expect to see $89 before any buying is to be considered personally.
COIN Completes First Post-IPO BottomAs the first of its kind, this young company has a bright future.
Weekly chart: NASDAQ:COIN has completed its first post-IPO bottom formation and is holding above the completion line despite some selling down in recent weeks.
The company reports Feb 15th. The fundamentals are most likely at or near the bottom completion level. The run up became over-speculated so a minor correction is underway that can dip into the completion level, but support from the bottom formation is strong with Dark Pool buy zone patterns.
Coinbase Update: Waiting for confimrationAs I said in my last post, I think it very likely that the bottom is in. Just as with every other bottom or top though, you need confirmation before saying one way or the other. The first bit of confirming data you want to look for, is a clean 5-wave move higher followed by a 3-wave retrace forming a healthy 1-2. Right now, this doesn't look like a clean 5-wave structure forming on the micros. Instead, it looks more corrective like an ABC, but I could see how one could possibly see an impulsive count forming. One thing of note is we breached the trend line and have thus far stayed above it.
MACD is sending mixed signals at this time, but we do have pos divergence still. As stated in my prior post we should get confirmation one way or the other soon. As of now, I only own 10 shares with a HARD stop @ $114.43 which is the invalidation point for this count. If we get confirmation, I will most likely buy more shares along with a few calls. The next larger target to the upside is $190 @ a minimum.
Just s y'all know, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post will be on that day.
Coinbase Update: Did we just finish an ED?Today confirmed my ALT count which suggested we needed another low to finish out this move down. When I started looking at it tonight, after analyzing Tesla and Rivian, I spotted what I believe to be an ED that just finished. If this is the case, then that means we made a bottom today in Coinbase!
We're in the target box, hit the 1.236 (common end point for abc's), made a new low on pos div, and stayed above the 0.5 fib / wave (1) high. Another low can't be ruled out just yet, but we don't have much more room left to fall without invalidating the count. That invalidation point is $114.43 which is where my hard stop is. Should we breach this price point, I feel we will fall much lower (sub $90 at a minimum).
I feel tomorrow should answer that immediate question for us if not then by Wednesday.
COINBASE Has it found a bottom? Caution if it breaks this level.Last time we looked into Coinbase (COIN), we set a long-term target of $150 (November 14 2023, see chart below) that was easily surpassed:
At the moment the stock is on a short-term pull-back following the rejection near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It is approaching a dangerous level, the 0.5 Fibonacci of the Channel Up, which is its middle but most of all the 116.50 level which is the former Resistance level (two Highs on August 04 2022 and on July 14 2023) that could now turn into Support.
If it holds, we can expect a rebound targeting $285, which would be a +146.82% rise, above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. If it closes a 1D candle below it though, we expect the price to seek the maximum % decline it has had within this pattern, -47.15%, which would bring the stock around $100 and would be technical test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and an excellent long-term buy entry, which is what took place on the October 27 2023 bottom. In that case a +146.82% rise would be $245.00 and that would be our Target. Note that at any given price, if the 1D RSI hits the 1-year Support Zone, it will be a solid buy entry regardless.
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Coin losing golden fibThe markets are getting crushed today and I believe this will be the second washout for Coin. OBV is testing to the downside which indicates sellers taking control, momentum is slowing. Coin already hit my first downside target and I marked a second area of interest at 110$. I have conferred with a few other long-term traders and 85$ is the most bearish scenario we agreed upon. I am waiting for a dip buy here as I believe Coin will be a huge player in the crypto markets going forward. They have registered to become a digital asset bank, I expect them to win more lawsuits, and their custodial services for the ETF are likely not fully understood.
Coinbase Update: Daily Chart/Larger CountAs the title suggests, I wanted to zoom out and give everyone a clearer picture of the larger count. Clearly by the price action we're seeing, structure is still in its wave ((3)). Wave (2) & (4) appear to have alternation, which is very important in a healthy impulsive count. Looking at the daily MACD, it appears to be curling up for the start of this wave (5), and it made its high at the wave (3) peak as expected. This should allow us to move higher in (5) and carve a lower high on MACD.
This picture that price action is painting for us, coupled with the BTC ETF and other developments for Coinbase, I feel are very good omens for what is coming. Again, fundamentals/news are already baked into the equation with EWT, but that doesn't mean you can't use them to help validate or invalidate your thoughts on the count/structure. One thing I really like seeing, is when I predict where price is going to move, and then afterwards I see other analysts starting to come to the same conclusion/targets.
All this being said, my thesis stands. We have hit all the standard targets and could take off in (5) from here, or we could make one more slight low to the yellow box in my last post before raising. Price action in the micros suggests another low, but they can be deceiving, and the larger count is saying its ready for lift off. Time will tell, but if we make another low, I will load up on more shares and buy some calls.
Coinbase Update: 01/30/2024Not spending a lot of time on this post as I have been very clear on my expectations with Coinbase. Looking at the 3min MACD, the choppiness of price action, and the structure that has been carved out since the 19 Jan low my ALT seems ideal. So, from here I expect us to drop to the yellow box before lifting off. There is a slim possibility the bottom has already been made but as with Tesla and Rivian this would be a sloppy way to start the next move higher. I've seen crazier things though. I will update tomorrow as needed.
