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COIN trade ideas

Understanding the Volume Contraction Pattern (VCP)The VCP is an essential pattern for swing traders, as it signals the potential for a significant price move. The pattern occurs when a stock goes through a series of contractions in price and volume, indicating that selling pressure is waning and the stock is setting up for a potential breakout. Key Components of VCP: Trapped Buyers (TBs): These are investors who bought at the peak and are now "trapped" in a position as the stock price declines. They are likely to sell when the price gets back near their purchase price, creating resistance. Loss Cutting (LC): As the stock declines, some investors will cut their losses and sell their positions, adding to the downward pressure. Profit Taking (PT): Once the stock rebounds, those who have profits from buying at lower prices may start to take profits, which can lead to a temporary reversal or pullback in price. Bottom Fishers (BFs): These are investors who are looking to buy the stock at what they perceive to be a bargain price, often near the lows of the pullbacks. Stages of VCP: Initial Decline (1): The stock experiences a significant drop in price, often on high volume, indicating strong selling pressure. First Contraction (2): The price begins to stabilize and contract. Volume diminishes here, suggesting that selling pressure is decreasing. Advance (3): The stock price rises, potentially leading to TBs selling near their break-even points. This can create resistance, but if the stock can move past this level, it's a positive sign. Second Contraction (4): A higher low is formed compared to the initial low. Volume contracts further, indicating selling pressure continues to wane. Subsequent Advance and Contractions (5): The pattern repeats, with each pullback being shallower and on lower volume, showing that supply is being absorbed and demand is taking over. Breakout (6): Finally, the stock breaks out from the VCP on increased volume, signaling that demand has overwhelmed the remaining supply. Trading the VCP: When trading the VCP, look for the following: A series of at least two contractions in price range and volume. Each contraction should be shallower than the last, showing less and less selling pressure. The breakout should occur on higher volume, confirming the pattern. Entry Point: A trader might enter a position as the stock breaks out from the final contraction. Stop Loss: A stop loss can be placed under the most recent low of the last contraction to limit risk. Profit Target: Targets can be set based on previous resistance levels or a multiple of the risk (stop loss size). Remember, while the VCP is a strong pattern, it's not foolproof. Always use proper risk management and consider the overall market conditions before taking a trade.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by JS_TechTrading
1
$COIN Inverse Head & Shoulders PatternThe NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is a technical analysis formation that typically signals a reversal of a downtrend. In this pattern, there are three key components: Head: The middle trough, often at the lowest point, represents a temporary low in the stock's price. Shoulders: These are two peaks on either side of the head and are roughly at the same price level. The left shoulder occurs before the head, and the right shoulder follows the head. The shoulders indicate a potential trend reversal. Neckline: The line connecting the peaks of the shoulders serves as the neckline. It acts as a crucial level of resistance that the stock needs to break for the reversal to be confirmed. In an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, the price movement resembles the shape of a head and shoulders turned upside down. The pattern suggests a shift from a bearish trend to a bullish one. Traders often look for a breakout above the neckline as a signal to enter a long position. Additionally, the volume is closely observed, typically increasing as the price breaks above the neckline, providing confirmation of the pattern.
NASDAQ:COIN
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
Coinbase (NASDAQ: $COIN) Poised To Continue Its Bullish TrendCoinbase Global A is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term. Rising trends indicate that C experiences positive development and that buy interest among investors is increasing. There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated. In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately $110 dollar. This indicates increasing optimism among investors. The stock has strong positive momentum in the short term. Investors have steadily paid more to buy the stock, which indicates increasing optimism and that the price will continue to rise.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DEXWireNews
Mastering the Art of Stop-Loss Orders: A Comprehensive GuideI. Introduction In the dynamic and often unpredictable world of trading, risk management is a cornerstone of success. Among the tools at a trader's disposal, the stop-loss order stands out as a critical mechanism for controlling losses and preserving capital. This guide delves into the nuances of stop-loss orders, aiming to equip traders with the knowledge and skills to use them effectively. Definition of a Stop-Loss Order A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a security when it reaches a certain price. It's designed to limit an investor's loss on a position in a security. For example, if you own shares of Company X trading at $100, you could place a stop-loss order at $90. If the stock dips to $90, your shares are automatically sold at the next available price. This tool is particularly valuable in helping traders avoid emotional decision-making; once a stop-loss is set, it enforces discipline, ensuring that pre-set exit points are adhered to. Importance of Stop-Loss Orders in Trading The primary importance of stop-loss orders lies in their ability to provide automatic risk control. They are especially crucial in volatile markets, where sudden price swings can occur unexpectedly. By pre-defining the maximum loss a trader is willing to accept, stop-loss orders help in: • Preserving capital: They prevent substantial losses in individual trades. • Mitigating emotional biases: They remove the need for making impromptu decisions under stress, thus avoiding common trading pitfalls like hoping for a rebound in a losing position. • Enforcing disciplined trading: By sticking to pre-set rules, traders can avoid the temptation to change their strategy mid-trade. Brief Overview of the Content This guide will cover everything from the basics of setting up stop-loss orders to advanced strategies for their effective use. We will explore different types of stop-loss orders, factors influencing their placement, and how they fit into broader trading strategies. The psychological aspects of using stop-loss orders and case studies of their application in various trading scenarios will provide practical insights. By the end of this guide, traders will be well-equipped to integrate stop-loss orders into their trading toolkit, enhancing their ability to manage risks and make informed decisions in the pursuit of trading success. II. The Basics of Stop-Loss Orders Understanding the fundamentals of stop-loss orders is essential for any trader seeking to protect their investments from unexpected market movements. These orders act as a safety net, providing a measure of control over potential losses. Let's explore the types of stop-loss orders and their roles in risk management. Types of Stop-Loss Orders 1. Standard Stop-Loss: This is the most common form of a stop-loss order. It's set at a specific price point, and once the market reaches this price, the order is executed, typically at the next available price. For instance, if you buy a stock at $50 and set a stop-loss order at $45, the stock will be sold if its price falls to $45, limiting your loss. 2. Trailing Stop-Loss: A trailing stop-loss order is more dynamic. It adjusts as the price of the stock moves, maintaining a set distance from the current market price. For example, if you set a trailing stop-loss order 5% below the market price, and the stock price increases, the stop-loss price rises proportionally, locking in profits. However, if the stock price falls, the stop-loss price remains stationary, safeguarding gains or minimizing losses. 3. Guaranteed Stop-Loss: Unlike standard and trailing stop-loss orders, a guaranteed stop-loss order ensures execution at the exact stop-loss price, regardless of market conditions. This type is particularly useful during periods of high volatility or when trading in less liquid markets. However, brokers often charge a premium for this service due to the additional risk they assume. How Stop-Loss Orders Work Stop-loss orders work by automatically triggering a sale or purchase once the security reaches a predetermined price. For a long position (buy), the stop-loss order is set below the purchase price, and for a short position (sell), it is set above the selling price. When the market hits the stop-loss price, the order becomes a market order, executing at the next available price, which may slightly differ from the stop-loss price due to market fluctuations. The Role of Stop-Loss Orders in Risk Management Stop-loss orders are a vital component of risk management in trading. They help traders: • Limit Losses: By setting a maximum loss level, traders can prevent substantial losses in a single trade. • Manage Emotions: Stop-loss orders take the emotion out of trading decisions, reducing the risk of holding onto a losing position in the hope of a turnaround. • Preserve Capital: They protect trading capital, ensuring that traders don't lose more than they can afford. • Facilitate Trading Strategy: Stop-loss orders can be part of a larger trading strategy, ensuring that trades adhere to predetermined criteria and risk parameters. In summary, understanding and effectively using different types of stop-loss orders is a fundamental skill for successful trading. These orders not only safeguard investments but also instill discipline and strategic planning in trading activities. III. Setting Stop-Loss Orders Setting stop-loss orders is a critical skill in trading, involving more than just picking a random price point. It requires a thoughtful approach, considering various factors that impact the effectiveness of these orders. Let’s delve into the key elements to consider when setting stop-loss levels and the tools that can assist in this process. Factors to Consider When Setting Stop-Loss Levels 1. Volatility of the Asset: The inherent volatility of a security is a crucial factor. Highly volatile stocks may require wider stop-loss margins to accommodate frequent price swings, reducing the risk of being stopped out prematurely. Conversely, less volatile stocks might need tighter stop-losses. 2. Risk Tolerance of the Trader: Individual risk tolerance plays a pivotal role. A trader willing to accept higher losses for greater potential gains might set wider stop-losses, whereas risk-averse traders may prefer tighter stop-losses to limit potential losses. 3. Trading Time Frame: The intended duration of a trade also influences stop-loss placement. Short-term traders, such as day traders, often set tighter stop-losses due to the need for quick reactions to market movements. In contrast, long-term traders might allow more room for price fluctuations. Technical Analysis Tools for Identifying Stop-Loss Levels 1. Support and Resistance Levels: These are key areas where the price of a stock has historically either risen (support) or fallen (resistance). Placing stop-loss orders just below support levels for long positions, or above resistance levels for short positions, can be effective. 2. Moving Averages: A moving average indicates the average price of a stock over a specific period and can act as a dynamic support or resistance level. Stop-losses can be set around these moving averages to align with ongoing price trends. 3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: These are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a set of ratios derived from mathematical patterns in nature. In trading, Fibonacci retracement levels can identify potential reversal points in price movements, aiding in setting strategic stop-losses. Common Mistakes to Avoid in Setting Stop-Losses • Setting Stop-Losses Too Tight: This can lead to being stopped out of positions too early, especially in volatile markets. • Placing Stop-Losses at Round Numbers: Many traders place orders at round numbers, which can lead to predictable stop levels and increased chances of being hit. • Ignoring Market Context: Failing to consider the current market environment and news that might impact the asset can result in ineffective stop-loss placements. • Not Adjusting Stop-Losses: As a trade progresses favorably, adjusting stop-loss orders to lock in profits or minimize losses is essential. In conclusion, setting stop-loss orders is a nuanced process that should align with the asset’s volatility, the trader’s risk tolerance, and the trading timeframe. Utilizing technical analysis tools like support and resistance levels, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracement levels can enhance decision-making. Avoiding common mistakes and continuously refining stop-loss strategies are integral to successful trading. IV. Strategic Use of Stop-Loss Orders Effectively integrating stop-loss orders into trading strategies is not just about minimizing losses; it's about optimizing the balance between risk and reward. This section explores strategic ways to use stop-loss orders, ensuring they complement your overall trading approach. Balancing Risk and Reward The essence of using stop-loss orders strategically lies in balancing the potential risk against the expected reward. It's crucial to set stop-losses at levels that allow enough room for the trade to breathe, yet are tight enough to protect from significant losses. A common approach is the use of a risk-reward ratio, where the potential gain of a trade is compared to the potential loss. For instance, a 1:3 risk-reward ratio means that for every dollar risked, three dollars are expected in return. This ratio helps in determining where to place stop-loss orders to ensure that trades are not only safe but also potentially profitable. Integrating Stop-Loss Orders with Trading Strategies Stop-loss orders should be an integral part of your trading strategy, not an afterthought. For trend-following strategies, stop-losses can be set below key support levels in an uptrend or above resistance levels in a downtrend. In range-bound markets, stop-losses might be placed just outside the range. The key is consistency; applying the same principles for stop-loss placement across all trades maintains discipline and reduces the impact of emotional decision-making. Scenario Analysis: Effective Use of Stop-Loss in Different Market Conditions Different market conditions necessitate different approaches to stop-loss placement: 1. In Highly Volatile Markets: Wider stop-losses might be appropriate to accommodate larger price swings. 2. During Stable Market Conditions: Tighter stop-losses can be used, as price movements are generally more predictable. 3. In Trending Markets: Trailing stop-losses are useful, as they allow profits to run while protecting gains if the trend reverses. Adjusting Stop-Loss Orders in Response to Market Movements A static stop-loss may not always be the best approach. Adjusting stop-loss orders in response to significant market movements can be a wise strategy. As a position moves into profit, moving the stop-loss to break-even or using a trailing stop-loss can protect gains. Conversely, in a deteriorating market condition, tightening stop-losses can prevent larger losses. In conclusion, the strategic use of stop-loss orders is a multifaceted discipline that requires a thorough understanding of market conditions, a clear grasp of risk-reward dynamics, and an ability to adapt to changing scenarios. By effectively integrating stop-loss orders into your trading strategies and adjusting them as market conditions evolve, you can not only protect your capital but also enhance your trading performance. V. Psychological Aspects of Stop-Loss Orders The use of stop-loss orders is not purely a technical strategy; it also involves navigating the complex terrain of trader psychology. Understanding and managing the emotional biases and challenges associated with stop-loss orders is crucial for effective trading. Emotional Biases in Managing Stop-Losses Traders often face emotional biases when dealing with stop-loss orders. One common bias is the reluctance to accept a loss, leading to the avoidance of placing stop-loss orders altogether or setting them too far from the current price. Another emotional challenge is the temptation to frequently adjust stop-loss levels, often moving them away from the market price to avoid the realization of a loss. This behavior can result in even larger losses. Overcoming Fear of Losses The fear of losses, or loss aversion, is a powerful emotional force in trading. It can lead to irrational decision-making, such as holding onto losing positions for too long or exiting winning trades too early. To overcome this fear, traders need to focus on the long-term perspective and the overall trading strategy rather than the outcome of individual trades. Accepting that not all trades will be profitable and that losses are a natural part of the trading process is key to managing this fear. The Discipline of Letting Stop-Loss Orders Work Discipline is essential when using stop-loss orders. Once a stop-loss is set based on a well-considered strategy, it's important to let it work. Constantly adjusting stop-loss orders in response to market "noise" or short-term price movements can be detrimental. Trusting the strategy and allowing the stop-loss order to play its role in risk management requires discipline and patience. This approach helps in maintaining a clear and consistent trading strategy, free from the impulsiveness of emotional reactions. In conclusion, the psychological aspects of using stop-loss orders are as important as the technical aspects. By recognizing and managing emotional biases, overcoming the fear of losses, and maintaining discipline in letting stop-loss orders work as intended, traders can make more rational decisions and improve their overall trading performance. Understanding and mastering these psychological elements is a key step towards becoming a successful and resilient trader. VI. Advanced Concepts and Considerations As traders become more experienced, understanding the nuanced aspects of stop-loss orders becomes crucial. This section delves into advanced concepts like the implications of tight versus loose stop-losses, the impact of market gaps, and the role of stop-losses in automated trading systems. Pros and Cons of Tight vs. Loose Stop-Losses Choosing between tight and loose stop-losses involves a trade-off between risk and opportunity. 1. Tight Stop-Losses: • Pros: Minimize potential losses on each trade, allow for more controlled risk management, and are suitable for high-volatility environments or short-term trading strategies. • Cons: Higher risk of premature exits from trades, potentially missing out on profitable moves if the market quickly rebounds. 2. Loose Stop-Losses: • Pros: Give trades more room to breathe, accommodating normal market fluctuations without prematurely exiting; suitable for longer-term trades or in securities with lower volatility. • Cons: Expose the trader to larger potential losses and require a larger capital commitment to maintain the same level of risk as tighter stop-losses. The Impact of Market Gaps on Stop-Loss Orders Market gaps, where the price of a security jumps significantly from one level to another without trading in between, can significantly impact stop-loss orders. A gap can occur due to after-hours news, earnings reports, or other significant events. • Gap Down: For a long position, if the market gaps below the stop-loss level, the order will be executed at the next available price, which can be significantly lower than the intended stop-loss level, resulting in larger than expected losses. • Gap Up: For a short position, a gap up can similarly lead to losses exceeding the planned amount. Understanding the conditions that lead to gaps and adjusting trading strategies and stop-loss placements accordingly can help mitigate this risk. The Role of Stop-Loss Orders in Automated Trading Systems In automated trading systems, stop-loss orders play a vital role in executing risk management strategies without emotional interference. These systems can use complex algorithms to determine optimal stop-loss levels based on historical data and real-time market analysis. Key benefits include: • Consistency: Automated systems apply stop-loss orders uniformly, adhering to predefined rules. • Speed: They can execute stop-loss orders faster than manual trading, crucial in fast-moving markets. • Backtesting: Traders can test different stop-loss strategies using historical data to determine their effectiveness. However, reliance on automated systems requires careful monitoring and understanding of the underlying algorithms, as these systems may not always account for unusual market conditions or unprecedented events. In conclusion, understanding these advanced concepts and considerations surrounding stop-loss orders is imperative for experienced traders. Balancing the pros and cons of different stop-loss strategies, being aware of market conditions that can impact their effectiveness, and integrating them into automated trading systems can significantly enhance trading outcomes. VII. Case Studies and Real-World Examples Exploring real-world examples and case studies is an invaluable way to understand the practical application and implications of stop-loss orders in trading. This section highlights instances of successful use, analyses failures, and draws lessons from experienced traders. Successful Use of Stop-Loss Orders in Trading 1. The Protective Trader: In a bullish stock market, a trader bought shares of a rapidly growing tech company. Recognizing the volatility of the sector, the trader set a trailing stop-loss order 10% below the purchase price. As the stock price climbed, so did the stop-loss level, effectively locking in profits. When the market eventually turned, and the stock price dropped by 15% in a week, the stop-loss order was triggered, securing the trader a substantial profit and protecting against a significant downturn. 2. The Strategic Day Trader: Focusing on short-term trades, a day trader used tight stop-loss orders to manage risks. By setting stop-losses just below key support levels, the trader minimized losses on individual trades, allowing them to remain profitable overall despite some trades going against them. Analysis of Stop-Loss Strategy Failures 1. The Overconfident Investor: A trader, confident in their analysis, set a stop-loss that was too tight on a volatile stock. The stock's normal fluctuations triggered the stop-loss, resulting in a sale. Shortly after, the stock rebounded and continued to rise significantly. The trader's failure to account for volatility and set a more appropriate stop-loss level led to a missed opportunity for substantial gains. 2. The Neglectful Trader: Another trader set a stop-loss but failed to adjust it as the market conditions changed. When a major economic event caused the market to gap down significantly, the stop-loss was triggered at a much lower price than set, resulting in a larger than expected loss. Lessons Learned from Experienced Traders 1. Flexibility and Adaptation: Successful traders emphasize the importance of adapting stop-loss strategies to changing market conditions and individual trade performance. 2. Balance and Rationality: Experienced traders warn against setting stop-losses purely based on the amount one is willing to lose. Instead, they advocate for a balanced approach, considering technical analysis, market trends, and volatility. 3. Continuous Learning: Even the most seasoned traders underline the need for ongoing learning and refinement of strategies, including the use of stop-loss orders. In conclusion, real-world examples and case studies of stop-loss orders provide valuable insights into their practical application. Success in using stop-loss orders comes from a balanced approach that considers market conditions, individual trade characteristics, and ongoing adaptation. Learning from both successes and failures is crucial for developing effective trading strategies. VIII. Best Practices in Using Stop-Loss Orders Effectively implementing stop-loss orders is a dynamic process that demands diligence, flexibility, and a strategic approach. This section outlines best practices for using stop-loss orders, focusing on continuous learning, regular monitoring and adjustment, and integrating them into overall portfolio management. Continuous Learning and Adaptation 1. Stay Informed: The financial markets are constantly evolving. Keeping abreast of new trends, tools, and strategies is crucial. This includes understanding market indicators, economic factors influencing stock movements, and advancements in trading technology. 2. Learn from Experience: Analyze past trades to identify what worked and what didn’t. Understanding why certain stop-loss orders succeeded or failed is invaluable for refining future strategies. 3. Seek Knowledge: Engage with trading communities, seek advice from experienced traders, and attend seminars or webinars. Expanding your knowledge base can provide new insights into the strategic use of stop-loss orders. Monitoring and Adjusting Stop-Loss Orders 1. Regular Review: Consistently review and assess your stop-loss orders. Market conditions can change rapidly, and what may have been a sensible stop-loss level at one point can become obsolete as market dynamics shift. 2. Be Proactive: Don’t hesitate to adjust stop-loss levels if new information or market changes warrant it. However, ensure these adjustments are based on rational analysis and not emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations. 3. Use Technology: Utilize trading platforms and tools that allow for real-time monitoring and alerts. This technology can provide critical updates that inform timely adjustments to stop-loss orders. Integrating Stop-Losses with Overall Portfolio Management 1. Consistent Strategy Application: Apply stop-loss orders in a manner consistent with your overall portfolio strategy. This includes aligning them with your investment goals, risk tolerance, and the time horizon for your investments. 2. Diversification and Risk Management: Ensure that the use of stop-loss orders complements your broader risk management strategy, which should include diversification across asset classes, sectors, and geographical regions. 3. Balance and Review: Regularly review your portfolio to ensure that the use of stop-loss orders is balanced and in line with the changing values and performances of your investments. This helps maintain an effective risk-reward ratio across the portfolio. In conclusion, using stop-loss orders effectively requires a blend of ongoing education, vigilant monitoring, strategic adjustments, and integration into the broader context of portfolio management. By adhering to these best practices, traders and investors can use stop-loss orders to not only protect their investments but also enhance their overall trading performance. IX. Conclusion As we conclude this comprehensive exploration of stop-loss orders, it's crucial to recap the key points and reinforce the importance of using these tools effectively in trading. Recap of Key Points 1. Understanding Stop-Loss Orders: We began by defining stop-loss orders and their types, including standard, trailing, and guaranteed stop-losses, each serving unique purposes in different trading scenarios. 2. Setting Stop-Loss Orders: We discussed the critical factors in setting stop-loss levels, such as the volatility of the asset, the trader's risk tolerance, and the trading timeframe. Technical analysis tools like support and resistance levels, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracement levels were highlighted as aids in determining optimal stop-loss placements. 3. Strategic Use and Adjustments: The strategic implementation of stop-loss orders, including balancing risk and reward and adjusting stop-losses in response to market movements, was emphasized as a core component of a successful trading strategy. 4. Psychological Aspects: We explored the psychological challenges in managing stop-loss orders, including emotional biases and the discipline required to let stop-loss orders work effectively. 5. Advanced Considerations: The nuances of tight versus loose stop-losses, the impact of market gaps, and the integration of stop-loss orders into automated trading systems were examined to provide a deeper understanding. 6. Real-World Applications: Through case studies and real-world examples, we demonstrated the practical applications and lessons learned from both successful and unsuccessful uses of stop-loss orders. 7. Best Practices: Finally, we outlined best practices for using stop-loss orders, highlighting the importance of continuous learning, regular monitoring and adjustments, and the integration of stop-loss strategies into overall portfolio management. Encouragement for Prudent Use of Stop-Loss Orders The prudent use of stop-loss orders is more than a mere tactic; it's a fundamental aspect of responsible trading. These orders serve as a safeguard, helping to manage risks and protect investments from significant losses. However, their effectiveness hinges on informed decision-making, strategic planning, and emotional discipline. Final Thoughts on Effective Trading Effective trading is an amalgamation of knowledge, strategy, and psychological fortitude. Stop-loss orders are a key tool in the trader's arsenal, offering a means to enforce discipline and mitigate risks. As with any trading tool, their power lies not just in their use but in how well they are integrated into a comprehensive trading strategy. Remember, successful trading isn't just about the profits made but also about the losses prevented. The strategic use of stop-loss orders, combined with continuous learning and adaptation, is central to navigating the complexities of the financial markets. Embrace these practices, and you'll be well on your way to becoming a more skilled and resilient trader.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by JS_TechTrading
1
Coin overheated, correction dueCoin has been on an absolute tear lately. I got into the stock around 40$ spot earlier this year and held the entire time. I am expecting a decent pullback here at this important fib level. 205$ would mark a full retracement from the march 2022 swing high. I expect a pullback at least to 140-160$ region since the stock is up 444% this year. I wont be shorting this likely pullback, but defensive puts might help a long investor make some passive income, or provide protection. Selling calls could be a good strategy too here.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Apollo_21mil
Coinbase Update: Nearing a local top?Coinbase has been on a tear lately. I first posted when it was around $170 and mentioned I had gone long around $137 originally. We are now about to hit the 1.382 fib @ $190.51. It is here that I believe we should bounce off and head down for a wave (4) retrace. Ideally this shouldn't drop below the 1.0 fib but that is just a guideline. The main thing is waiting for an A wave to form followed by a B wave. You can then start to predict where the following C wave should end. Soon, if we hit the 1.382, depending on structure and strength, there is a good chance I will buy a couple puts with a strike around $130. Take a look at the MACD, price is still rising/making a new high even though MACD's lower. This indicates the move up should be ending soon. If MACD makes a new high then it will indicate we are headed higher yet, but as of now, we're on negative divergence. When/if I enter into a trade, I will post it on here.
NASDAQ:COIN
by TSuth
Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously. Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x. Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets. BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high. Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year. COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry. That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities. Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase. COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought. FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally. While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs. COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC. The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval. In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources. Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer). While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience. The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider: Source: Coindesk Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC. BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking. Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode. While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback. Source: Glassnode THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry. Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase. If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks. Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs. The hypothetical trade set up would involve: • Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780) • Target: 0.480% • Stop Loss: 0.365% • Profit at Target: USD 670 • Loss at Stop: USD 467 • Reward/Risk: 1.43x Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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NASDAQ:COINLong
by mintdotfinance
41
Coinbase establishing an inverted head and shoulders formationIn June 2023, sellers failed to establish a lower bottom, and buyers took over, pushing the price towards the resistance at $114-116.3, breaking through the previous Lower High (LH) which was in March 2023. In July we got a Higher High (HH) and in October, the market formed a Higher Low (HL), indicated by a new bottom higher than the previous one. The positive trend was confirmed at the end of November when the price broke through the resistance, establishing an inverted head and shoulders formation – a clear indication of a trend reversal. I have added Coinbase to my watchlist and I'm waiting for a possible pullback towards the support level at $114-116.3 or a touch on the trendline, potentially looking for an entry for a long position, possibly in April. It's also worth noting that the BTC halving, which usually triggers bull runs, is expected to occur in May 2024. However, it's important to be aware that this is based on the current protocol, and changes in the network or other factors may affect the timing. I share this information because the Coinbase price has a correlation with the BTC price. Emphasizing the importance of considering both technical and fundamental factors, it is recommended to conduct thorough assessments, analyze trends, as well as support and resistance levels. Additionally, staying attentive to any news or events that may impact price movements is crucial. Do not overlook the necessity of a clear risk management plan and a thoughtful evaluation of portfolio diversification. What do you think about this analysis? I am open to any feedback. :)
NASDAQ:COINLong
by renasjalal
3
Coinbase Wins VASP Crypto Approval in France Ahead of MiCA Coinbase Wins VASP Crypto Approval in France Ahead of MiCA Crypto exchange Coinbase has secured key approval from the French financial market regulator to offer crypto services in France, according to a statement issued on Thursday.   The development paves the way for Coinbase to expand its European services ahead of the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regime, creating a robust framework for crypto-native companies to offer regulated products and services in the EU bloc. Coinbase Secures VASP Registration in France On December 21, Coinbase announced that the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) had granted the company a virtual asset service provider (VASP) approval, a green light to operate in the domestic market. The VASP registration will allow Coinbase to offer users in France a full suite of retail, institutional, and ecosystem products and services. This includes custody of digital assets, buying and selling of digital assets in legal tender, and digital assets trading against other digital assets.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DEXWireNews
COINBASE-SELL strategy Weekly chartThe short-term view applies as well as the medium-term one. I have been suggesting since some updates to be SELL, which is simply look at the extend of market movements. Market movements are not always logical, and consistent. In the case of COINBASE clearly driven by crypto movements, hence makes the call harder, but overall the picture does. not change for a sharper correction in the near-term. Strategy SELL between $ 160-180 for a move back towards $ 110.00. SL is dependent to the pocket, but am suggesting to place it somewhere @ $ 195.00. Keep leverage or capital employed low please. That way we minimize losses and maximize the profit, which I feel should be placed near $ 118.00 for now.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by peterbokma
3
Coinbase Long-term OutlookAnother day, another ticker updated. Some of y'all might recall, in one of my posts I mentioned being long COIN with the intention of selling around the $200 area. Due to the type of reaction off of the 1.236 fib, it made me think we were about to start our descent for wave (4). I then upped my stop limit to $163 to ensure I captured those profits. We dropped down to $160.07 to stop me out and then started to move higher again. Since then, we have raised with strength, imo, to finish out wave (3). This puts my entire trading strategy out there for y'all to see. Sure, I could have made an extra couple hundred dollars had I stayed in. I also could have lost all those gains I had just made. See, I would rather fear losing money, than suffer from FOMO. Due to this thought process, I pocketed over 19% profit in one week, in one trade. I shouldn't need to mention the effect compound interest will have with this type of success in trades. That being said, I expect this to raise to around the 1.382 @ $190.51. However, we're raising on negative divergence at this time on the hourly. This indicates the move is weakening and most likely coming to an end. Structure has met/almost met all requirements, MACD is dropping on the lower time frames, and we're reaching the "normal" endpoint for an extended move. After we top, I would expect us to drop to around $130-$160 before taking off for wave (5) of ((3)). Notice MACD made a new high? Remember what that means? If not, you might have an opportunity to learn early next year from me. P.S.: Blackstone is working on getting a bitcoin ETF approved. Should this happen, I would expect COIN to go on a tear. Makes one wonder if it will get approved towards the end of this wave (4) coming up. That would definitely give us the strength needed to reach the first target box you see on the screen. Corrective waves can chop for a long time though so I am unsure how long it will take to get there. I would assume we will hit the box sometime in 24'. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:COIN
by TSuth
2
Coinbase to $118 before facing selling pressureCoinbase is working on a weekly close that would be the highest of the past 13 weeks. Additionally, it has broken out above the weekly Cloud for the first time in it's history. Once the Chikou Span is in 'open space', it will confirm an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout. NASDAQ:COIN 's periodicity suggests that the next price and time levels to watch are the last week fo December 2023 near the $118 value area where the 100% Fib. extension and the top of the Volume Profile currently exist. However, because the volume profile is almost non-existant above $120, there is a high probability that NASDAQ:COIN could just shoot above in an insane rally.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by itsjustanalysis
7
Coinbase Expands in Europe with French VASP LicenseFundamental Analysis Coinbase expands to France with VASP license, seizing opportunities in a thriving crypto-friendly market amid U.S. regulatory challenges. Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange, has marked a European expansion by securing a virtual asset service provider (VASP) license in France. This development, confirmed by a company spokesperson, signals a major stride for Coinbase in extending its services in the European market. France’s AMF watchdog, recognizing the potential of digital currencies, has effectively given Coinbase the green light to operate its array of crypto services within the country. Coinbase European Expansion Amid U.S. Regulatory Challenges Amidst increasing regulatory pressures in the United States, Coinbase’s move into France represents a strategic shift in focus. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been notably stringent with cryptocurrency firms, leading to heightened tensions. Coinbase, facing allegations from the SEC of engaging in illegal securities dealings, has countered these claims, advocating for clearer crypto-specific regulations in the U.S. Coinbase’s European venture came when the U.S. Department of Justice took stern measures against crypto giants like Binance, resulting in substantial settlements and leadership changes. This contrast in regulatory environments underscores Coinbase’s decision to deepen its presence in Europe. France as a Tech and Crypto Hub Coinbase’s French expansion aligns with President Emmanuel Macron’s vision to transform France into a global technology hub. Under the “France 2030” initiative, the French government has allocated 34 billion euros in investments over five years. This investment bolsters France’s position in cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and blockchain. The country’s progressive stance on technology and digital assets has attracted several crypto firms, including Circle, Binance, and Crypto.com, which have established their European bases in Paris. The presence of major players like Ledger, a crypto custody service provider, further solidifies France’s burgeoning role in the crypto landscape. Rising Crypto Adoption in France Despite recent market downturns and industry challenges, France has witnessed a steady increase in cryptocurrency adoption. According to Toluna, a data firm, around 10% of French adults currently own crypto assets, and 24% plan to engage in crypto transactions within the next year. Therefore, Coinbase’s entry into the French market with the VASP license comes at an opportune moment. This move enhances the company’s European presence and taps into French consumers’ growing interest and adoption of digital assets. Technical Analysis NASDAQ:COIN stock is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This signals increasing optimism among investors and indicates continued rise. In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 110 dollar. Positive volume balance shows that volume is higher on days with rising prices than days with falling prices. This indicates increasing optimism among investors. The stock has strong positive momentum and further increase is indicated. However, particularly for big stocks, high RSI may be a sign that the stock is overbought and that there is a chance of a reaction downwards.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by DEXWireNews
Coin iS TinklingHi friends, Sharing weekly chart of Coinbase global. So as you can see that i identified an Ascending Triangle breakout pattern in it on weekly chart and below i am sharing some insight and key factors about this breakout which i analyzed on provided chart, hope you like my presentation and give your valuable support to my publication mates. So as we can see above on provided chart that price breached recent swing top and close above and it is highest clsoing after 17-18 months by the price too so i assume that we can see some bullish moves in this counter in coming weeks Guys. Analysis points- You can see that before this breakout price started making higher lows and gradually moved out towards breakout zone and made a higher high pattern too by recent two swing tops, before this higher low formation when price was in lower lows trend i observed that Rsi making higher highs formations so we can say that it was bullish divergence too by rsi at that time and we can say that price just started the resumption of uptrend from there. Targets- Target i identified for this long trade by two ways, one is very simple i am taking resistance target and for the second i meausered height of Triangle from swing top to swing bottom and find out amazingly that both targets indicating almost the target zone, so taken target zone seems very logical for me friends. Breakout Retest Levels- 105 This publication is meant for only learning purpose, it is not any kind of trading advice. Best Regards- Amit “If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market’s behaviour, the struggle will cease to exist.” -Mark"Douglas
NASDAQ:COINLong
by AMIT-RAJAN
31