Costco: Finally Starting To Look OverboughtCOST is an above average company with great execution on it's business plan. However, the stock, which now trades at a RICH 44x FWD earnings, is beginning to look expensive - given that's a premium to the market's long term average of 15x earnings, and even still a 30% premium to COST's average valuation over the last 5 years.
Combined with the recent UMCSI readings which are bearish for consumer facing businesses, and the overbought RSI & ADX readings, it's time, at the very least, to take some profits in this name. We don't like outright shorting good companies unless they go parabolic though, so we're looking to pair a short here with something that we think is well positioned -- CTLT or COO. Well positioned names in a well positioned sector - this comes from our proprietary capital flows model.
Cheers all!
COST trade ideas
COSTCO Strong buy opportunity on a 2-year old fractalPattern: Channel Up on 1W.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above its Resistance (and November 2020 High), in a similar sequence as the April-May 2019 fractal. Even the RSI sequences are identical indicating that the price is breaking outside of this consolidation pattern.
Target: Within the 1.5 - 2.0 Fibonacci extension zone (as in 2019).
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COST broke out of a long term resistance. Can it hold?It's been a few days since COST broke out of the long term resistance of $389.58 that was forming since November 2020.
The question now is, can it hold?
Two reasons why I think it can.
1. It consolidated after a move higher and made a new 52 week high
2. Its expected to do well in the coming year.
Now, looking at its past performance I think COST will come back to retest the $387.60 to $389.58 range before moving higher.
The main reason why I think this is because the breakout didn't have a large amount of volume kicking it higher; and because the follow through also doesn't have a lot of volume.
Final thought:
COST did break and I think it'll continue to move higher but not before retesting the broken resistance.
This is one to keep an eye on for sure.
3 U.S. Stocks That Appear Overextended To the UpsideThe following names appear overextended to the upside and may be due a retracement, creating a short term shorting opportunity.
Nvidia - we recommended the name on radio at $527 on 16/03. It's since been a strong performer, closing at $762 on Wednesday. Note the bearish divergence as per the 7-day RSI.
DocuSign Inc. - Over a 7-week period, the stock has advanced from $180 to $274. If $272 fails to hold then we could see a move back to the low $250s.
Costco Wholesale Corp. - Trading near multi-month highs, the higher price (and 22 June breakout) is not being confirmed by a higher 7-day RSI i.e. bearish divergence. Failure to hold $389 should see a move down to ~$375.
*Any failure to hold the prior day highs should be seen as an early signs of a slowdown in upside momentum.