5/8/24 - $ecor - dip buying low $6s ex post tn or nothing5/8/24 - vrockstar - weird one to write about - but revenue trends are actually solid over a pretty multi-year period. a non-"consumer" affected med-tech that's flexing opex. really hard to value on the fly, but if i conservatively say the $50 mm revenue in 2-3 yr is broadly correct at a 3x multiple (it's pseudo-software GM's w good R&D budget), but underscaled and risky per size, that's $150 mm cap. at even a 50% cost of capital (or discount that back two years) you're at at 70$ mm valuation today (ignoring smallish-burn). at 40$ mm cap today (let's ignore capital stack, raises etc. which will fly if this scenario is correct), that's a decent valuation punt. NOW in this tape, it's suicide to punt on these things even if i think they'll beat. so what i'm waiting for is a decent print, stock down 10% or so from here, call it low 6's in order to leg into a micro position (i can't justify more than 25 bps of my book in swinging MT something of this cap, as it cb dead money for some time before gets monetized). writing this note mainly to myself for when i come back to it or decide to punt tmr. also writing if helps anyone else w/ their thinking or perhaps someone has a clearer view that they can comment below. cheers
