Enphase Energy: Tight Consolidation & Golden CrossSolar energy has been one of a few bright spots in this bearish market. Today we’re looking at the company in the group with the largest market cap: Enphase Energy (ENPH).
The first pattern on this daily chart is the uptrend since mid-May -- the opposite of the broader market’s price action. In fact, ENPH hasn’t made a new 52-week low in 117 sessions. (The S&P 500 last made a new low 16 candles ago.)
Next is the tight consolidation illustrated by Bollinger Bands Width.
Third, you have the level around $220. ENPH probed and reversed at this area in April, June and July. But combined with the uptrend and narrowing price range, traders may look for a breakout if prices manage to cross this resistance. That could be especially true with earnings expected later this month.
Finally, notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is just now rising above the 200-day SMA. That kind of “golden cross” may signal that the longer-term trend is getting more positive. (Only 10 percent of the S&P 500 have their 50-day SMAs above the 200-day SMAs, according to TradeStation data.)
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ENPH trade ideas
ENPH breakout (long trade)Enphase Energy is a solar stock setting up in a textbook breakout pattern. Pullbacks have shallowed from over 50% at the start of the bear market down to 14%. This volatility compression shows accumulation in the stock and a transfer from weak hands to strong.
The numbers are tremendous on this one. As you can see from the MarketSmith numbers at the bottom of the chart, sales and earnings are growing at an extraordinary rate for the last four quarters. 2022 estimates are for a 45% increase in EPS and another 24% increase is expected in 2023.
Relative strength ranks at 97/100 and the solar sector as a whole is the top-performing sector right in the market right now. A strong stock in a strong sector at the start of a new bull market is the formula for knocking down triple digit gains, and this stock could very well deliver.
I'm looking for a breakout above the $220 level to trigger the buy. A move on increased volume would give me even higher conviction.
$ENPH Strong Relative Strength$ENPH I am already Long this name and added this morning. Still only ½ size position in this wild market. This name has been showing Relative Strength for some time now as is the whole solar sector. I have my relevant notes on the chart. I expect the next level of resistance will be in the $216 area. If it can get above that I think a reasonable target area is $250 to $280 area. I’ll be looking to add over the $216 area if it can get there. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
ENPH: repetitive price action?The black arrows might unfold as similar price actions.
Below 194.00 supports a bearish trend direction. Crossing above this level will negate the bearish stance.
Further support from 179.75 for further downside potential.
Consolidation price action between 169.75 and 186.00.
Crossing below 169.75 might target 153.25 (to complete the repetitive price pattern).
A break above 186.00 will be the first sign of strength returning to the stock.
ENPH holds better than TAN;if mid165 fails, 120 will be retestedENPHASE is holding better than its mother ETF, TAN. Since 2021, it has basically been consolidating horizontally except for an overshoot 4Q2021. In contrast, the TAN etf is in a falling wedge formation.
BULLISH CASE: Better yet, it is holding above the middle of this conso box, the 165 to 170 zone. (Middle of 120 to 220). This is also a convergence of 3 VWAPs from recent highs & recent bottoms. If it holds 165, then 220 will be retested.
BEARISH CASE: If this midzone is lost, then a retest of 120 will be next or even a double bottom sometimes in 3Q2022 to create a divergence.
Not trading advice
ENPH Pulling Back to Pivot SupportThere is nothing to do come Monday and I will probably sit out until FED notes are out Wed.
That said, One of the stocks I'll be keeping an eye on is $ENPH pulling back to double bottom traditional pivot.
Weekly chart (not shown here) indicates it needs a bit more work.
ENPHase W-pattern may reach 328 for wave 5 if 200 holdsENPH is the strongest component of the TAN solar ETF. Just like the biotech sector, it has started to gain ground after a long hammer candle at the week of May 9,2022. Since then it bounced with 4 consecutive green weekly candles from 165, the middle of a big trading range since 2021 (110-210).
BULLISH CASE: ENPH is now at 210 the top of the range. It may retrace back down & retest the 165 midpoint or the VWAPs before a rally to again BO the 200 to 210 red zone with 328 as the destination of its wave V. This assumes that wave IV is a running flat & the 5-wave wave V is underway. It is now at the wave 3 of a bigger wave V.
BEARISH CASE got hammered when ENPH bounce above all my VWAPs & is now attempting to breakout the 200-210 red zone.
Not trading advice
$ENPH Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets (REQUEST)$ENPH Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets
I had a super fun time analyzing this chart mostly because I’ve never seen it before. Energy is hot right now so I see why it was requested.
The general direction is up. And there is lots of support… The gap up today forms a nice possible support. If there’s a little pull back, I’d go long… (You trade, right? Or are you looking for a long entry??) Thanks for the prompt and I like this chart… I added it to my watchlist…
Get above 220, and then fly to 280…
Hope this helps...
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Enphase USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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Solar comparisonSolar company comparison YTD:
ENPH +11.96%
TSLA -8.59%
SEDG -12.42%
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ENPH - Open Short-Into-Long / ViceVersa(Optional) - Open Short if fib 0.382 breaks, then open long from 111.666.
(Long Base) - Open Long from fib 0.236
(Event) - 26 Feb earning & revenue,always big vol.
(Common sense) - Its overall to overbrought, short after peak?
(Seperated Short) - Hedge against the long position
ENPH shortConditions: Growth/ highly valued stocks moving with the market. Trend following trade.
Entry: Market order some point today (12/04)
Stop: 5%. Small order. Re-evaluate and potentially larger position as price nears trend and/or previous high at start of April.
Target: Take profit/exit once weekly stoch gets to 25-20%. Monitor price action.
Downtrend noted since Nov 21
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Current (general) preferred entry conditions and entry signals are either.
a) Reversion to mean from overextension, providing there has been evident support from historical price action and/or a bullish / bearish pintail or rejection evident by an engulfing candle immediately after the supposed support/rejection.
b) Oscillators (Daily/Weekly Stoch as well as the Average Sentiment Oscillator) all providing confluence with a trend line / support level and candle formation.
Maintain 2:1 RR, use retracements as much as possible. If over extended and sufficient confluence and I'm at my computer, consider a market order.
Establish confluence of support/resistance , trend, oscillators, congruent candles (pintail or engulfing reversal).
Capitulations or fakeouts are good signalsThis is a long fakeout in the chart of $ENPH. We look at this fakeout after it brakes a trendline and you don't find continuation to the downside after retesting the break.
After this, the fakeouts market liquidates many MANY sell positions and call options that they do 2 things:
Scare the sellers with bad loses
Add tons of liquidity or volume around these prices.
Plus, the MACD gives a delayed, but great signal to ATH. And the fundamentals are looking great:
www.etoro.com
So, I can do 2 things, go for different mini trades in the 4 hours allocating 0.5% to 1.5% of my portfolio and leveraging those either X2 or X5. Or I can go the low-risk option and add a larger allocation, up to 5%, and just let it be there.
1) Short-term trading (swing trades) with low leverage:
The Pros of this strat are having more capital to open other trades like BTC (which is moving now) or just having cash for hedge purposes.
The Cons is the risky trades as I can lose that capital easier in this way as the short-term trades are usually fewer probability trades.
2) Long-term position with higher allocation.
On the contrary, a long-term position is a higher probability trade, not a time-consuming (a simple SL and TP order would do) position, but it allocates a large amount of capital.
I'll try to do half and half this time.
Let me know what you think about this